Brothers at Odds

Doo Ho Choi

While Santos enters the Octagon as the betting favorite on a four-fight winning streak, Choi possesses the precise tactical advantages necessary to pull off the upset. Standing three inches taller and holding a crucial three-inch reach advantage, Choi is perfectly equipped to dictate the distance from the opening bell. He will likely look to exploit Santos’s heavy, Muay Thai-style lead leg by establishing a punishing calf-kick game early in the piece. Furthermore, Choi boasts a massive statistical edge in striking accuracy and defensive discipline, landing a sharp 56% of his significant strikes while absorbing far less damage than his Brazilian counterpart. Santos likes to load up on looping, explosive spinning attacks, but Choi’s fundamentally sound, tight guard should allow him to evade the big shots and counter effectively. As Santos aggressively presses forward to close the distance, he will be forced to walk directly into Choi’s famously crisp, powerful straight right hand. If Choi can successfully use his superior footwork to keep his back off the fence and stuff Santos’s inevitable takedown attempts, he will control the pacing completely. By frustrating the Brazilian with sharper volume and cleaner counters over three rounds, Choi is primed to neutralize the pressure and secure a definitive decision victory.

Play of the Fight:
 Cuamba moneyline @ +114

Daniel Santos

Doo Ho Choi vs. Daniel Santos is a perfect Brothers’ Battle of the Week type of fight because both guys are willing to get into the fire, but I am siding with Santos here. Santos brings that dynamic Chute Boxe style on the feet – aggressive pressure, big combinations, knees, elbows, and a willingness to turn exchanges into chaos. Choi still has sharp boxing and real power, but I think Santos is the more layered and unpredictable striker at this stage.

The concern with Choi is that he has simply been too inactive during what should have been his prime years, and his recent matchups have been pretty favorable compared to what Santos brings. Choi can absolutely crack him if Santos gets reckless, but I trust Santos’ pace, variety, and violence more over three rounds. Give me Santos to make this a wild fight, push Choi backward, and win a gritty decision or possibly find a late finish.

Play of the Fight:
Santos Moneyline @-125

Bukauskas by KO/TKO or decision @ -250

I really think Bukauskas is being gifted a win from the UFC with his opponent Christian Edwards coming into this fight with less than a week’s notice. Bukauskas is a technical striker with a solid jab and Edwards only real path to victory is to try and turn this fight into a brawl. Unfortunately for Edwards his lack of a full training camp means he won’t have the gas tank to survive a 15 minute war. As a result Bukauskas is the easiest pick on the card. 

Cavalcanti Decision @ +105

While this is on the undercard, I think it is an absolute lock this week. Cavalcanti should be able to use her anti-wrestling and athleticism to keep this fight on the feet. She should be able to add up the volume over 15 minutes to a solid decision victory.

Allen enters the Octagon looking to get back into the win column after a highly competitive decision loss to Jean Silva earlier this year. Despite a recent rough patch where he dropped three of his last four fights, the British standout possesses a wealth of elite experience from sharing cages with the division’s absolute best. Costa rolls into his very first main event assignment riding the momentum of an impressive six-fight winning streak. The Brazilian challenger has looked sharper with every appearance, recently securing consecutive first-round stoppages to skyrocket himself into the rankings. Stylistically, both men prefer to operate in southpaw stances and fundamentally favor technical striking exchanges on the feet. Allen leans heavily on his crisp boxing fundamentals, utilizing a high, upright stance to manage distance and sharp footwork to explode forward with powerful combinations. Costa relies on a much higher volume of output, constantly pressing forward with relentless pressure and dynamic striking variety. While Allen holds a distinct edge in high-level pacing over twenty-five minutes, Costa’s improving grappling and wrestling chains present a live underdog threat if he can force scrambles. This headliner is expected to start at a blistering pace as Allen seeks a definitive signature victory, while Costa aims to capitalize on the biggest opportunity of his career to break directly into the featherweight top ten. In picking Costa to win as he is the more dynamic striker with the momentum in his favor.

Play of the Fight: Costa moneyline @ +105

I know Arnold Allen is the more proven fighter here. He has been in the cage with absolute killers, has legitimate five-round experience, and has clearly faced the stronger strength of schedule. That absolutely matters, and it is the biggest reason this is not some easy, blind Costa pick. Allen is durable, composed, technical, and has already shown he can compete with high-level featherweights for extended stretches. My two biggest concerns for Melquizael Costa are cardio and level of competition. Allen has proven he can go hard over five rounds, while Costa’s cardio past 2.5 rounds still feels suspect in general. The level of competition both fighters have faced is definitely different as well. Costa is coming up fighting more mid-level fighters, while Allen has been in there with killers as of late. If Allen survives the early danger, starts forcing extended exchanges, and drags Costa into deeper waters, this could become a very tough spot for Costa late.

That being said, I am backing Milky Costa because of his momentum and the overall danger factor he brings into this matchup. Allen is walking into shark-infested waters here because Costa is dynamic on the feet, lethal on the ground, and dangerous in every phase of the fight. He is riding high off multiple impressive finishes, and I absolutely believe he has the potential to finish Allen for the first time at the UFC level. Yes, Jean Silva just went to war with Allen, but I also think Silva is a wee bit overrated compared to how most people view him. He is a very good fighter, but I do not believe he is a world beater, and I do not think that fight automatically means Allen is on some untouchable level. Costa may be stepping up in competition, but I truly believe he is a killer himself. He has the momentum, the finishing instincts, and the chaos factor to make this fight dangerous from the opening bell. I think Milky Costa rises to the occasion and walks away with a fat dub.

Play of the Fight:
Costa moneyline @ +105

Wellmaker enters the Octagon with a chip on his shoulder after recently suffering the first defeat of his professional career, a setback that snapped an impressive ten-fight winning streak. He faces a very dangerous UFC newcomer in Juan Diaz who earned his UFC contract with a stellar second-round finish on Dana White’s Contender Series. Despite Diaz riding an eight-fight winning streak of his own, Wellmaker holds the key physical and structural advantages necessary to secure the victory. Standing two inches taller with a clear two-inch reach advantage, “The Machine” possesses the perfect frame to control the outer perimeter of the cage. Wellmaker is the significantly faster, more dynamic striker who mixes his attacks beautifully by combining sharp boxing with high-volume kicking arrays. While Diaz thrives almost exclusively in close-range boxing exchanges, Wellmaker’s superior footwork should easily allow him to stay on the outside and pick his shots. Furthermore, Wellmaker boasts a massive statistical edge in striking accuracy, landing a crisp 56% of his significant strikes compared to Diaz’s lower 39% rate. If Wellmaker returns to a smart, kick-heavy game plan to soften Diaz’s legs and midsection, he will effectively neutralize the newcomer’s forward pressure. Diaz will likely get frustrated by the distance, forcing him to take desperate risks and leave his chin exposed to Wellmaker’s devastating counter hooks. Wellmaker’s elite octagon experience and superior speed will dictate the pace, allowing him to hand the Peruvian prospect his first promotional loss via a dominant second-round stoppage.

Play of the Fight:
Wellmaker by KO/TKO @ +120

Malcolm Wellmaker vs. Juan Díaz is a tricky spot because this feels like a pretty clear striker-versus-grappler type of matchup. I struggled with this one a bit because if Díaz can consistently get to his takedowns and establish control, he is absolutely live to make this uncomfortable. That is the path for Díaz here. He needs to turn this into a grappling-heavy fight, slow Wellmaker down, and keep him from getting comfortable at range. But I also believe Wellmaker knows he has to bounce back after the Ewing loss, and I expect him to take this fight very seriously. This is the kind of spot where a fighter with his skill set should come in focused, sharper, and ready to remind people why there was hype around him.

I am backing Wellmaker by KO/TKO or decision because I think his crisp striking and power will be the difference. If he can keep this fight standing for long stretches, I trust him to land the cleaner, more damaging shots and control the bigger moments on the feet. Díaz is dangerous if he can force the wrestling and grappling exchanges, but I do not love relying on him to control Wellmaker for long enough without getting touched up. Wellmaker has the cleaner striking, the better power, and the more obvious finishing upside. As long as he fights smart, stays disciplined with his takedown defense, and does not allow Díaz to turn this into a grind, I think Wellmaker either finds the KO/TKO or does enough damage across the rounds to win a decision. Wellmaker for the win.

Play of the Fight:
Wellmaker Moneyline -278

Seasoned veteran Modestas “The Baltic Gladiator” Bukauskas welcomes promotional newcomer Christian Edwards. Bukauskas was originally scheduled to face Rodolfo Bellato, but a late-week injury forced a dramatic shakeup and brought this bout to a 215-pound catchweight. Edwards enters the Octagon for his highly anticipated UFC debut riding the wave of an impressive record featuring six finishes in his eight professional victories. Despite the newcomer’s explosive potential and dangerous finishing ability, Bukauskas holds the definitive edge in overall high-level experience. Having already shared the cage with elite light heavyweight talent, Bukauskas is deeply familiar with navigating the pressure and unique pacing of the UFC octagon. Stylistically, Bukauskas is a highly technical kickboxer who excels at managing distance, utilizing a sharp jab and long-range kicks to dictate the terms of engagement. Edwards will likely look to force a chaotic, high-intensity brawl early to capitalize on his athleticism, but Bukauskas’s stellar 63% takedown defense should keep the fight exactly where he wants it. The short-notice nature of this matchup heavily disadvantages the newcomer, who had less than a week to prepare a specific game plan for a fighter as structurally sound as Bukauskas. As the fight progresses into the later rounds, Edwards’s gas tank will likely be tested by the frantic nature of his debut and the technical pacing of his opponent. Bukauskas’s composure and superior counter-striking will allow him to dismantle the debutant’s forward pressure, securing a clear and dominant unanimous decision victory.

Play of the Fight:
Bukauskas by KO/TKO or decision @ -250

Modestas Bukauskas vs. Christian Edwards is one of those matchups where I do not feel great about either side, but I lean slightly toward Bukauskas. He has had more time to prepare, has more UFC-level experience, and should be the cleaner striker if he can keep this fight at range. Edwards is athletic and dangerous, but he has shown some chin concerns, and that is hard to ignore against someone who can kick, counter, and pick at him from distance.

That being said, Bukauskas is most likely still a fraud in the bigger picture, so this is not some confident stamp of approval. He has durability concerns of his own and can absolutely make this fight more difficult than it needs to be. But in this specific matchup, the experience edge, preparation advantage, and Edwards’ questionable chin have me siding with Bukauskas to survive the chaos and win a sketchy decision or possibly find a late finish.

Play of the Fight:
Bukauskas by KO/TKO or decision @ -250

Sopaj enters the Octagon as the betting favorite fresh off a solid victory over Ricky Turcios and boasting an impressive finishing rate. Cuamba steps into the cage as a live underdog riding the momentum of a two-fight winning streak with victories over Roberto Romero and Chang Ho Lee. Physically, Cuamba holds a significant advantage, standing three inches taller and possessing a critical five-inch reach advantage over the shorter European prospect. This physical edge will be the cornerstone of Cuamba’s strategy as he looks to establish his sharp boxing fundamentals and stay active from the outside. Sopaj relies heavily on relentless forward pressure and an elite 71% takedown accuracy to force chaotic scrambles and nullify his opponent’s length. However, Cuamba boasts a stellar 72% takedown defense that should give him the necessary tools to keep this fight upright and dictate the overall pacing. If Cuamba can successfully weather the initial aggressive first-round surges, he will force Sopaj to bridge a massive reach deficit against a crisp counter-striker. As the fight extends into the deeper rounds, Cuamba’s recent activity and superior cardio will allow him to take over the striking volume. I expect Cuamba to stay disciplined behind his long jab to neutralize the pressure, taking the second and third frames to secure a hard-fought unanimous decision upset on home soil.

Play of the Fight:
Cuamba moneyline @ +114

Timmy Cuamba vs. Bernardo Sopaj is a fight where I am backing Sopaj with high confidence. Cuamba is not a total can, but I have major concerns about him overall. He started his career fighting at 155, then moved to 145, and now he is settling in at 135 for only his second bout in the division. He is definitely a bit of a weight bully for bantamweight, and that size could help him steal some wins, but I also think that cut makes him very live to get hurt. I truly believe Cuamba is on the chinnier side, and when you combine that with a substantial weight cut, the knockout danger becomes even more real. When he fought Lucas Almeida at 145, Cuamba was getting cracked and dropped all sorts of silly in the first round. And when you look at Almeida’s record, that is a major red flag. Almeida does not do that to people consistently, and he has lost every single UFC fight lately outside of the Cuamba matchup. Almeida is 1/5 in his last five UFC fights, and Cuamba is the only win Sir Almeida Can Longtime has had as of late.

The only real advantage I can see for Cuamba here might be cardio, but even that feels suspect with the bigger weight cut down to 135. Sopaj, on the other hand, feels like the much more dangerous and trustworthy side. I think he is live to do damage on the feet with quick strikes in the pocket, and he has the scrambling ability to turn chaotic exchanges into top position. That is where I think this fight can really swing in his favor. Sopaj is explosive, aggressive, and still only 25 years old, so there should absolutely be room for continued improvement in his game. Cuamba may have size and toughness, but I do not trust his durability, his cut, or his overall trajectory enough here. I think Sopaj hurts him on the feet, wins the scramble battles, and reminds people why he is still a young talent worth watching. Sopaj for the win.

Play of the Fight:
Sopaj Moneyline -166