Brothers at Odds

Rodolfo Vieira

Vieira’s strategy here will be obvious. Close the distance, clinch, and force McConico into a grappling exchange. Vieira is a nightmare on the mat and McConico is no exception. Vieira’s ability to chain takedown attempts together and transition into chokes is dangerous. McConico has shown that he is susceptible to being taken down and Vieira might only need one takedown to secure a victory here. Even if McConico can keep the fight standing for any length of time he hasn’t really shown any significant power in his strikes that would give me concern here. He honestly hasn’t shown much of anything since entering the UFC. McConico is 1-2 in the big show and was pounded into oblivion in his two losses. His lone UFC win by split decision was against the fading Cody Brundage. Even Brundage was able to give McConico trouble by taking him down a few times and landing more significant strikes. That doesn’t spell good news for McConico against a grappling master like Vieira. Plus Vieira has improved his striking well enough to survive on the feet but McConico doesn’t even have the power to challenge Vieira there. While McConico could find success late if Vieira fatigues the grappling gap here is immense. Vieira likely finds a finish the moment he secures top position. I think we see Vieira hit an early takedown and add another submission victory to his record. How can anyone possibly convince themselves to take McConico here? Robert, get yourself some help. 

Play of the Fight:
Fight not to go to decision -130

Eric McConico

I’m backing Eric McConico here, and I think he’s being seriously underrated in this spot. Chris is about to find out his pick isn’t as safe as he thinks. Vieira is what he is at this point – elite on the ground, but completely reliant on getting the fight there. And we’ve already seen what happens when that doesn’t go his way. If he can’t secure takedowns early and dominate, things fall apart fast. McConico knows exactly what’s coming here. There’s no mystery gameplan. Stuff the takedowns, keep it standing, and make Vieira uncomfortable. If he can do that, this fight flips quickly. On the feet, I like McConico to be the more composed and dangerous fighter, and we’ve already seen Vieira struggle badly in those situations. This feels like a spot where one fighter has to be perfect to win, and the other just has to execute a clear plan. I think McConico does exactly that and gets himself back in the win column. The plain truth? Chris’s horse is broken this week and will struggle to land takedowns against an improving McConico.

Play of the Fight:
McConico Moneyline +235

Montel Jackson to Win By KO/TKO/DQ or Raoni Barcelos to Win by Decision -150
Or 
Grant vs Martinetti fight not to go the distance +110

I really like both of these props! I picked Jackson to win but I admit there is a good chance that Barcelos will wrestle him for 15 minutes for a decision victory especially with the smaller cage in place for this event. This really could go either way, but I feel like these are the two most likely outcomes. I also think Grant and Martinetti won’t last more than 10 minutes in the cage. Both guys will be hunting for a KO and someone’s chin is going to give out in that one. Martinetti is aggressive but leaves himself open to counters which Grant should be able to take advantage of. The concern with Grant is that his 40 year old chin might not be up to the task.

Plus Money LOCK:
Montague by Submission or TKO +180

I could not be more confident in the downfall of Bueno Silva. i tried to convince myself to give her a chance… but did you see the weigh ins?! This girl is crying before the fight even starts and I think she is certainly going to cry after Montague smashes her. Seriously, I wish Silva the best but I do believe her time in MMA should come to an end for her own wellbeing.

Most Confident Moneyline Parlay:
Marshall, Filho, Montague, McVey @ +162

I truly believe that all of these fighters will come through this week against their inferior competition. At plus money, I feel great about this play!

Youssef Zalal is on an absolute tear winning his last eight fights. He is very well rounded and has won five of his last six fights by submission. This includes his most recent victory over Josh Emmett where he won with a first round armbar. He is a real technician with his submissions giving his opponents no chance of escape. He is also very experienced with a dozen UFC fights under his belt already. He even shared the cage with the Champion Ilia Topuria back in 2020. As well rounded as Zalal is I think he might be in trouble with Aljamain Sterling. As I said Zalal has had a lot of recent success with his grappling and submission game but none of those opponents were at Aljo’s level. Aljo is too strong and just too skilled on the ground to get caught in a Zalal submission. Aljo just dominated an elite submission artist in Brian Ortega and went toe to toe for three rounds against elite wrestler Movsar Evloev. I think it’s safe to say that Aljo is a level above Zalal in the grappling department. Aljo should be able to land takedowns when he wants to and will be able to dictate where the fight takes place. Aljo’s striking also looked sharp against Ortega landing land kicks and solid jabs throughout the contest. I think that’s the perfect strategy against someone like Zalal who is constantly on the move. I am definitely picking Sterling here. He has a superior ground game also with a size and strength advantage. He also has more experience in five round fights having been the full distance three times already. Zalal definitely has a future in this division but Sterling is just a bad stylistic matchup for him. This might not be the most entertaining fight, but I do think Aljo takes the victory most likely by decision.

Play of the Fight:
Sterling Moneyline +114

This is one of those matchups where people are overthinking it a bit. I’m backing Youssef Zalal, and I think his skillset lines up really well here.

Zalal is sharp everywhere right now. His grappling is clean, controlled, and technical – not the kind that’s going to get him caught in bad spots. And that’s key against someone like Sterling. I don’t see Aljo just running through him on the ground like some might expect.

Sterling’s funky style is always dangerous, especially early. But it relies heavily on pace and explosiveness, and I just don’t trust that to hold up over five rounds anymore. We’ve seen the cardio dip, and against a composed, well-rounded fighter like Zalal, that’s a problem.

On the feet, I give Zalal a clear edge. His striking is more technical, more efficient, and he’s not going to panic or overextend. As the fight goes on, that advantage should become more noticeable.

I expect Sterling to have success early with pressure and grappling, but once we get into rounds 3-5, I think things start to flip. Zalal will defend, settle in, and begin to take over with volume and cleaner shots.

The only concern is the familiarity between them – sometimes that can slow things down. But even with that, I like Zalal’s trajectory and composure here.

Play of the Fight:
Zalal Moneyline -135

Norma Dumont calls herself “The Immortal” and she’s been pretty close to that recently winning six in a row and nine of her last ten. One of her career highlights was a dominant victory over Irene Aldana where Dumont brutally sliced Aldana up for 15 minutes. Aldana was a bloody mess at the final bell. One of the most brutal beatdowns in women’s MMA history. More recently Dumont secured a split decision victory over Ketlen Vieira. However the Vieira fight was very close and really could have gone either way. Vieira was able to take Dumont down a couple times and wasn’t as hurt by Dumont’s strikes like Aldana was. I don’t think Dumont will be able to find similar success against the very powerful Joselyne Edwards. Unlike Dumont’s previous opponents Edwards has explosive power. She has dynamite in her hands that can send any opponent into the shadow realm. Her deadly striking is backed up by a slick grappling and submission game. Edwards is riding a four fight win streak finishing all four opponents within the distance with a mix of submissions and TKO victories. In her most recent loss against Ailin Perez in 2024 Edwards showed the one gap in her game is takedown defense as Perez was able to ground her a few times. However Edwards is not the type to accept bottom position and constantly challenged Perez with sweeps and reversals. I honestly just do not see a path to victory for Dumont here. Edwards is just so much more skilled and powerful than all of Dumont’s previous opponents. I think the power in Edward’s hands will just be too much for Dumont to handle. Even if Dumont tried to turn this into a wrestling match, she wouldn’t be able to hold Edwards down for 15 minutes. There are just too many paths to victory for Edwards here and Dumont doesn’t have the reputation of being a finisher for her to pull off some miraculous knockout or submission. I’m going to go with Edwards here in one of the most confident picks I’ve ever made.

Play of the Fight: Edwards Moneyline +180

This is one of the easier reads on the card for me. Both Chris and I are backing Joselyne Edwards, and it really comes down to one thing – danger.

Norma Dumont is solid, no doubt about it. She’s consistent, well-rounded, and knows how to win rounds. But that’s exactly the issue… she wins rounds. She’s a decision merchant. There’s not a lot of urgency or finishing ability in her game, and against someone like Edwards, that’s a risky approach.

Edwards is the complete opposite. She’s aggressive, constantly improving, and always hunting for a finish. That’s what I love about her right now – she’s not just trying to win, she’s trying to make a statement. And in a fight that could easily turn into a title eliminator, I expect that mindset to show up big here.

Where this really swings in Edwards’ favor is the danger factor. She has real power, real finishing instincts, and multiple ways to end the fight. Dumont just doesn’t bring that same threat. Over three rounds, I trust the fighter who can create a moment – not just edge out control time.

The cage size is also a huge factor. In a bigger cage, maybe Dumont can play it safe, manage distance, and grind out another decision. But in a smaller cage, there’s nowhere to hide. Edwards is going to be in her face, forcing exchanges, and making this a fight – not a point-scoring contest. I just don’t see Dumont being able to avoid danger for 15 minutes.

Play of the Fight: Edwards Moneyline +180

CThis should be a very entertaining fight, although I admit it’s extremely difficult to pick a winner here. Both guys have the power in their hands to end fights. Hernandez is coming off back to back TKO victories over Chase Hooper and Diego Ferreira. The Ferreira win was interesting because Hernandez was very patient for over eight minutes as he waited for the perfect opportunity to counter his opponent before landing a perfect strike to end the fight. However Hernandez didn’t do much of anything prior to that which does concern me against Garcia. “Gifted” Rafa Garcia isn’t the type to sit back and wait for the fight to come to him. I expect him to bring the fight to Hernandez immediately and pressure him until the fight is over. That strategy does backfire for Garcia on occasion and he will eat a shot and get taken down every once in a while but he makes up for it with his seemingly endless gas tank. The big difference in this fight is going to be that forward pressure from Garcia. His pace and aggression will be the same from beginning to end. His last fight, a round three TKO win over Jared Gordon, proved that Garcia is a force to be reckoned with for the full 15 minutes. I am concerned that Hernandez’s recent counter-striking approach isn’t going to work here. His only chance of victory is another early knockout because he’s definitely not out-pointing Garcia for a decision victory. Garcia only seems to get stronger as fights go on and he’s also incredibly difficult to finish. He is just so much more dangerous than any of Hernandez’s recent opponents. Unless Hernandez can find a way to pull off another early knockout I think he’s going to be in trouble in the second half of this fight. I’m picking Garcia by a late TKO or decision. 

Play of the Fight: Garcia Moneyline +110

TRafa Garcia is tough, aggressive, and brings a ton of pressure – I’ll give him that. But when you really break it down, he’s kind of a mid-tier generalist. He does a lot of things okay, but nothing at a level where he can truly separate himself. And honestly, I think he’s been a bit gifted in some of these UFC wins.

Hernandez, on the other hand, is quietly improving. The big difference lately is his patience. He’s not just rushing into chaos anymore – he’s picking his spots, staying composed, and making opponents pay when they overextend. That’s a dangerous shift.

Stylistically, I don’t love this for Garcia. His whole game relies on forward pressure, but if he can’t consistently secure takedowns, he’s going to be stuck walking into strikes. And I don’t think he’s going to have an easy time getting Hernandez down.

That’s where the fight flips for me.

On the feet, I give Hernandez the edge, especially with his kicking game. He’s going to be able to manage distance, slow Garcia down, and pick him apart as the fight goes on. Garcia will have moments early with pressure, but if he’s forced to strike at range, that’s not his fight.

I see this playing out with Hernandez staying disciplined, avoiding extended brawls, and making Garcia pay every time he tries to crash forward.

Play of the Fight: Hernandez Moneyline -130

This should be another very entertaining fight. Both guys are happy to throw hands for 15 minutes. The exciting aspect to this matchup is that neither guy is very good at getting their head out of the way of danger or keeping their guard up. Martinetti is making his UFC debut following an epic fight against Mark Vologdin on the Contender Series that was an all out brutal war for the ages! Straight up violence for 15 minutes! While Martinetti got the better of Vologdin overall he ate so many shots along the way. Vologdin had Martinetti hurt more than once. Vologdin is exceptionally small for the weight class so that concerns me about what a bigger and longer opponent could do to Martinelli. That logic is causing me to lean toward Davey Grant. Now the concern with Grant is that he’s 40 years old and is just as hittable as Martinelli. He recently got cracked by a Charles Jourdain knee in his last fight before tapping out from a choke. However in 25 pro fights Grant has never been knocked out. That’s very impressive and also the reason why I’m choosing Grant here. While Grant won’t be as wild as Vologdin was, I still don’t trust Martinelli to survive for very long against a bigger, stronger striker. Especially a craft veteran like Grant. I think Davey Grant gives the UFC newcomer a rough welcome to the Octagon with a 1st round KO.

Play of the Fight:
Fight not to go the distance +110 

Martinetti had that war with Mark Vologdin, and while it was exciting, it exposed a lot. He got hit… a lot. And now we just saw Vologdin come in and look pretty unimpressive against Castañeda. That doesn’t exactly boost confidence heading into this matchup.

Grant is just the more proven, dangerous striker. He has real power, better shot selection, and more experience in these kinds of fights. He’s not perfect defensively, but he knows how to capitalize when opponents leave openings – and Martinetti leaves plenty of them.

I think we’re going to see a similar story play out here. Martinetti will come forward, be willing to trade, and have moments… but he’s going to be eating shots the entire time. And against someone like Grant, that’s not a winning formula.

At some point, those shots are going to add up. Unc super powers incoming.

Whether it’s an early knockout or Grant just outworking him over three rounds, I don’t see many paths for Martinetti to take over this fight.

Play of the Fight:
Grant Moneyline -135

This is a classic striker vs grappler matchup. Montel Jackson has lights out one punch power. His straight punches are exceptionally fast and deadly. Raoni Barcelos is a well rounded veteran with an excellent wrestling base. He is great at timing level changes and has taken his last five opponents down at least once. Jackson’s last two opponents, Deiveson Figueiredo and Daniel Marcos, were able to ground him more than once so you can bet Barcelos will try to do the same. While Jackson’s takedown defense might be a little bit questionable, his ability to get back to his feet is not. Jackson swiftly returned to his feet every single time Figueiredo and Marcos got him down. Jackson has active hips and refuses to accept bottom position which I think will help him here. I really think Jackson’s defensive grappling is good enough to force Barcelos into a kickboxing fight. On the feet Jackson’s length and power are going to have Barcelos in trouble. I think Barcelos’ four fight win streak comes to an end with a statement victory by “Quik” Montel Jackson. Look for Barcelos to shoot early followed by Jackson getting back to his feet and blasting his opponent with his long powerful straights.

Play of the Fight:
Jackson by TKO +225

Jackson has all the tools to be a problem – length, speed, and real power in those straight shots. But the issue is we just don’t see it enough. He’s way too tentative at times, and that completely limits how dangerous he actually is. The Figgy fight was a perfect example. The openings were there, but he just didn’t let his hands go consistently.

And that’s a big problem in this matchup.

Barcelos is the type of fighter who will take advantage of that hesitation. He’s a vet, he’s composed, and he knows how to control fights. I expect him to mix in the wrestling early, apply pressure, and force Jackson into uncomfortable positions – especially in a smaller cage where there’s less space to operate.

Even if Jackson is able to get back to his feet, that constant threat of the takedown is going to keep him second guessing. And when Jackson is thinking instead of reacting, he becomes a much easier fighter to deal with.

I just see Barcelos dictating the pace here. He’ll land the more consistent shots, mix in control time, and do enough to win rounds without needing a finish.

Play of the Fight:
Jackson by KO/TKO OR Barcelos by Decision -150

Ryan “Superman” Spann is 1-1 since moving up to heavyweight. He lost to the powerful Waldo Cortes-Acosta in his heavyweight debut but bounced back nicely with a slick submission win over Lukasz Brzeski. In the Brzeski fight Spann showed that his submission game is top notch as he threatened Brzeski with multiple submission attempts before locking in a deep guillotine choke. Marcus “Buchecha” Almeida is a highly decorated grappler with several championships on his resume. But for some reason he has not been able to really demonstrate those skills in the octagon. He’s been able to take his opponent down in both of his fights in the UFC but for some reason he wasn’t able to really do much with those opportunities. Both his opponents were able to get back to their feet and pressure him with strikes. Buchecha hasn’t really shown much in his striking game and is pretty desperate to get fights to the ground. The problem with that is Ryan Spann might be the best grappler he’s fought so far. With 14 submission wins in his career he’s no amateur grappler. Spann also has a huge experience advantage here with 34 career fights while Buchecha has less than 10. While Spann’s striking isn’t elite by any means but it’s much better than what Buchecha has to offer so any amount of time spent on the feet favors Spann. Until I see Buchecha bust out his supposedly “world class” grappling skills I cannot bring myself to support him. The pick is Ryan Spann either by a grueling decision or a late TKO. 

Play of the Fight:
Play is Spann by Decision or TKO +150

I’m backing Ryan Spann here, and this feels like a classic striker vs grappler matchup with a very clear path.

Buchecha is elite on the ground – no question. But the problem is, that’s really where his entire game revolves. He’s going to need takedowns early and often to win this fight. And if he can’t consistently get Spann down, things are going to get ugly fast.

Spann has the advantage on the feet and it’s not close. He’s longer, more dangerous, and has real finishing ability with his striking. If this fight stays standing for any extended period of time, it favors Spann heavily.

What really stood out to me was the size at weigh-ins. Spann looks like an absolute unit at heavyweight. Not having to cut down from 205 anymore is a big deal, and you can see the difference. He looks stronger, fresher, and more durable.

Cardio is definitely something to watch for both guys. This could turn into one of those fights where whoever slows down first is in serious trouble. But that actually makes me lean even more toward Spann. If Buchecha is forced to wrestle and chase takedowns without success, that gas tank is going to drain quickly.

And once that happens, Spann is going to start taking over.

I see Buchecha having some early moments, maybe even threatening with a takedown or two. But if Spann defends well enough and keeps this fight standing, he’s going to start piecing him up as the fight goes on.

Play of the Fight:
Fight Does Not Go The Distance +110

Bottom of the barrel for the middleweight division here.  Both guys have struggled recently after hot starts to their professional career. McVey generally fights with a clinch heavy pressuring style landing solid elbows and knees that produce cumulative damage as the fight goes on. Dumas does a decent job of using his reach advantage especially with front kicks that keep his opponents at bay. When opponents do close in, Dumas can be quick to shoot a takedown out of desperation but hasn’t been able to do much recently when he winds up on top. I think Dumas will struggle here with McVey’s pressure and although he will try to use his long kicks to maintain distance McVey will break through before long. I expect McVey to employ his usual game plan here but with much more success. Unlike McVey’s previous opponents Dumas will have no answer for the violent clinch attack and succumb to a TKO loss once again. 

Play of the Fight:
McVey by TKO or Submission -145

This one is pretty simple for me. I’m backing Jackson McVey, and more importantly… I’m fading Sedriques Dumas.

At this point, Dumas has earned himself a permanent spot on the fade list. The talent might be there, but the focus and professionalism just aren’t. You can’t trust it. And in this game, that’s everything.

McVey is the bigger fighter, and I think that’s going to show immediately. He’s going to bring pressure, close the distance, and make this a physical fight. That’s not where Dumas thrives. When things get gritty and uncomfortable, that’s when we’ve seen him break.

I really like the clinch work here from McVey. He’s going to be able to control positions, land damage, and wear Dumas down over time. And if Dumas isn’t mentally locked in, that’s a dangerous place to be.

This feels like one of those fights where the UFC is giving Dumas one more shot… and I don’t think he capitalizes on it.

Play of the Fight:
McVey Moneyline -192

Montague is undefeated and comes into this fight following a win in her UFC debut over crafty veteran Luana Carolina. Montague won that fight by dragging Carolina to the floor and attacking with strikes and submission attempts for the better part of fifteen minutes. Although Carolina was able to rock Montague with punches a couple times as “The Wild One” tried to close the gap. Montague needs to work on keeping her hands up but that won’t be an issue against the struggling Bueno Silva. I have to be honest I would fade Bueno Silva against anyone at this point. She’s lost four in a row and has never really shown proficiency in any aspect of mixed martial arts. She definitely does have the power to challenge Montague here. I really think this will be easy work for Montague as she takes Bueno Silva down at will for a dominant victory. I’ll be surprised if Bueno Silva survives for 15 minutes.

Play of the Fight:
Montague by Submission or TKO +180

I’m backing Michelle Montague here, and this is one of my more confident picks on the card.

Mayra Bueno Silva is officially on the ban list for me. The skill is there, we’ve seen flashes of it, but you just cannot trust her anymore. The mental side has completely fallen apart in fights, and that’s not something you can just ignore. In MMA, if your mindset isn’t locked in, everything else goes out the window.

Montague, on the other hand, is the type of fighter I want to back in this spot. Composed, dangerous, and looking to make a statement. This feels like a matchup where one fighter is coming in to compete… and the other might just be showing up.

Stylistically, I think Montague is going to push the pace and force Silva into uncomfortable exchanges early. And once that pressure starts building, we’ve already seen how Silva reacts. It’s not pretty.

This has all the makings of a highlight reel performance.

Play of the Fight:
Montague by Submission or TKO +180

Marshall is a gritty and well-rounded veteran who utilizes high volume boxing and a relentless takedowns to wear opponents down. Lucas Brennan enters his debut with massive hype, having finished 10 of his 11 professional wins, including eight first-round submissions. Brennan’s path to victory is early aggression and he likes to hunt for chokes the moment a scramble begins. However, Marshall’s solid takedown defense and superior technical striking make him a difficult target to ground or knockout. While Brennan is lethal in the first five minutes, Marshall has proven he can navigate deep waters and maintain a high pace for all three rounds. The short notice nature of this fight adds another hurdle for the newcomer. Brennan’s best chance is a quick submission, but Marshall’s experience in the cage should prevent that from happening. As the fight progresses, Marshall’s superior conditioning and striking should allow him to pull away on the scorecards. Expect the veteran to weather the early storm and outwork the UFC rookie in a competitive battle.

Play of the Fight:
Marshall Moneyline -535

This is one of the clearest spots on the card for me, and I’m backing Francis Marshall with a lot of confidence. Brennan is a pure BJJ fighter, and while that always brings some danger, it’s very one-dimensional – if he can’t consistently get this fight to the ground and control it, he’s going to struggle badly. Marshall is just the more complete, well-rounded fighter, and I expect him to dictate where this fight takes place from start to finish. He’s not going to willingly engage in prolonged grappling exchanges, and if Brennan starts forcing takedowns, that’s where Marshall can really take over by stuffing attempts, controlling distance, and making him pay on the feet. This feels like one of those matchups where one fighter has multiple paths to victory while the other has one very specific win condition, and I just don’t see Brennan being able to impose his game long enough to matter. Marshall should be able to take over this fight wherever he wants and eventually find the finish.

Play of the Fight:
Fight Does Not Go The Distance -130

Jafel Filho is a dangerous submission specialist who thrives when the fight hits the canvas with a dangerous striking game to back it up. Cody Durden is coming off a very one sided loss to Nyamjargal Tumendemberel. Durden was severely outclassed in both the striking and the grappling in that fight. That previous performance raised serious questions about Durden’s striking defense and durability, vulnerabilities that Filho is more than capable of exploiting. Filho does not just survive on the bottom; he weaponizes it, using active hips to threaten with armbars and triangles constantly. The short notice for Durden also favors Filho who has had a full camp to sharpen his conditioning. Especially considering Durden just fought last month. Filho’s ability to blend opportunistic striking with world-class BJJ makes him a nightmare matchup for a grinder coming off a tough loss. The pick here is Filho by a mile. 

Play of the Fight:
Filho by Submission or TKO -250

This is another spot I feel really good about. I’m backing Jafel Filho, and I think he gets it done inside the distance. Durden taking this fight on short notice after just getting beat up a month ago is a massive red flag. That’s not a quick turnaround you want, especially at this stage of his career where he’s already looked a bit past his prime. Filho, on the other hand, looks like he’s entering his prime – sharper, more dangerous, and trending in the right direction. Stylistically, I think this is a tough matchup for Durden as well. Filho has legit submission skills and can absolutely snatch something if this hits the mat, but what I really like is that he doesn’t need to rely on that. If Durden shows up compromised or even a step slower, Filho can hurt him on the feet too. This feels like a fight where Durden is already at a disadvantage before it even starts, and I expect Filho to capitalize.

Play of the Fight:
Filho by Submission or TKO -250

Max “Pain” Griffin is known for his rugged durability and solid takedown defense but he has occasionally struggled against dynamic strikers who can maintain a high pace from the outside. Valenzuela enters his debut with a reputation for slick kickboxing and the kind of “one-punch” power that can put anyone to sleep. For Valenzuela to secure the upset, he must utilize his superior speed and lateral movement to keep Griffin from turning this into a grinding clinch battle. Valenzuela’s ability to land heavy counters while circling away could frustrate Griffin and cause him to make a mistake. If Valenzuela can stay disciplined and avoid being pinned against the fence, his volume and striking skills should bring him a victory. I’m going to pick Valenzuela here but I can see this fight going one of two ways. Either Valenzuela’s striking overwhelms Griffin for an early KO or Griffin grinds out a decision.

Play of the Fight:
Valenzuela by KO or Griffin by Decision @ -135

This was one of the tougher calls on the card for me because I do respect Max Griffin’s skillset, but I’m still backing Victor Valenzuela here. Griffin is a seasoned vet and can be competitive anywhere, but it feels like we’re starting to see the decline, and that’s a dangerous place to be against a younger, hungrier opponent. Valenzuela represents that next wave, and I think the speed, explosiveness, and finishing ability are going to be the difference. Griffin can have moments early with experience and composure, but over time I expect Valenzuela to find openings and capitalize. This feels like one of those passing-of-the-torch fights where the veteran hangs around just long enough before getting caught. I think the durability finally cracks here, and Valenzuela makes a statement.

Play of the Fight:
Valenzuela by KO or Griffin by Decision @ -135

Polastri is coming off a dominant TKO win over Karolina Kowalkiewicz in October. She will look to utilize her significant 6-inch reach advantage and high volume kickboxing to keep the fight standing and punish Alencar at range. Alencar is a BJJ black belt whose path to victory relies entirely on closing the distance and dragging the fight to the mat. While Alencar’s ground game is elite, her low takedown accuracy is a concern. Polastri has shown vastly improved takedown defense and is great at creating scrambles to get back to her feet. If Polastri succeeds in forcing a stand-up battle, she will dominate Alencar. I have honestly not been very impressed with Alencar’s grappling game despite her resume and I don’t think she has the wrestling skills to get the job done here. Even if Alencar gets her opponent down, I love Polastri’s defensive grappling and her unwillingness to accept the bottom position. Overall I trust Polastri’s defensive grappling more than I trust Alencar’s offense. I’m picking Polastri to keep the fight standing long enough to pick Alencar apart with strikes and secure the victory.

Play of the Fight:
Polastri Moneyline -258

This was one I went back and forth on, but I’m backing Julia Polastri. I’m a big fan of her approach and mentality – she’s aggressive, gritty, and fights with real intent. The concern is obvious though… the takedown defense. Alencar is extremely dangerous on the ground and if she gets a dominant position, she can absolutely end the fight. But the big question for me is how often she can actually get it there and sustain it. She’s going to have to rely heavily on early grappling success, and that’s a taxing gameplan. If she can’t secure and hold those positions consistently, that gas tank is going to become a major issue. I think Polastri survives the early danger, forces Alencar to work, and once the fight starts to shift, her pressure and striking take over. This feels like a fight where momentum swings late.

Play of the Fight:
Polastri Moneyline -258
OR
Fight Does Not Go The Distance +200