Brothers at Odds

Font is coming off a rough loss to David Martinez where he really faded late and almost got finished. Rosas is a legitimate up and comer with years of grappling experience and much improved cardio and pace. While Font does have good ability to scramble when the fight hits the mat his takedown defence isn’t the best. Font does have the edge in striking but I think Rosas has improved enough in that department to close the distance and turn this into a grappling match. Some other people might tell you that Font will be able to keep the fight standing and jab his way to a victory but those people are wrong. Very wrong. Even if Rosas can’t hold him down he will be pressuring Font with clinches and takedowns constantly. Font will land a few shots in between but they won’t be enough to make a difference. 

The argument can be made that Rosas hasn’t fought top competition and that is true. But Font hasn’t had much success against top contenders in his few opportunities. He’s a gatekeeper and Rosas is about to break that gate off its hinges. In the end, Font gassing out in his last fight really implores me to pick Rosas here. Unless Font is able to find a shocking KO early I think “El Nino Problemo” will have Font in trouble late and win a decision or snag a 3rd round submission. Chiwiwis long time!

Rob Font is a seasoned veteran who still brings a very real threat to anyone trying to climb the bantamweight ladder. His boxing skillset is excellent, highlighted by a sharp and dangerous 1 – 2 that can give a young and spoon-fed fighter like Raul Rosas Jr. serious problems if he cannot keep him grounded. While Font is susceptible to takedowns, what makes him dangerous is that he rarely accepts position once he hits the mat. He constantly fights to his feet and will even threaten counter submissions just to create space and stand back up. If Font is able to consistently work his way back to striking range, Mr. El Nino Problem Chiwiwis is going to need plastic surgery by the end of the fight because I believe the striking gap is as wide as the Grand Canyon. 

Rosas Jr. should be an improved fighter every time we see him in the octagon, but how good is the overhyped prospect? Mr. Chiwiwis has fought absolute cans throughout his career so far and proven nothing because the UFC has protected the young prospect. Font is undoubtedly the toughest test of his career. Font has the experience edge, gritty get-up game, and technical striking skillset to outclass Rosas throughout the duration of the fight. Font was competitive with David Martinez for much of their fight before getting rocked late by a far superior striker to Mr. Chiwiwis. Rosas Jr. will have to prove to me that he is ready for this level of competition and I would be impressed if he is able to finish Font. I will take Font by a damage based decision or a TKO from damage accumulation.

Robertson has reeled off 4 wins in a row while Lemos is on a one fight skid after a loss to the experienced wrestler Tatiana Suarez. Lemos got taken down a couple times in that fight but defended well. She showed good cardio as well, ending the fight with an impressive flurry. She probably finishes Suarez if that fight was a 5 rounder. While Robertson comes in on a win streak her opposition in that time hasn’t been top tier. Everyone she beat was on a losing streak of their own and she did not exactly look elite against any of them. Robertson definitely has not shown the wrestling skills to control Lemos like Suarez did. Robertson definitely won’t be able to wrestle Lemos to death like Raul Rosas did to Rob Font last weekend. Whoever picked Rob Font to win that fight should not be trusted with anything going forward. Chiwiwis long time. Now Robertson might take Lemos down a time or two but Lemos’ grappling has improved so much over her career I think she can handle it. Even if the fight hits the mat Lemos did well grappling against the jiu-jitsu ace Mackenzie Dern when they fought in 2024 and won a decision. That gives me plenty of confidence to pick Lemos here. She will be able to defend Robertson’s grappling well enough to force a stand up fight. I don’t think Robertson stands a chance on the feet against Lemos. One big punch from Lemos will set the tone for this fight. Only question is whether Robertson will survive until the end.

I see this fight going one of two ways. Lemos keeping it on the feet and winning via striking based damage or Robertson blanketing Lemos on the ground with control. The striking gap in this fight is massive, so I strongly believe Robertson will have to sell out for the takedowns for as long as the fight lasts. If Robertson can get successful takedowns, then I believe she will dominate the fight based on control and ground based damage from her elbows. However, the main question I have is about Robertson’s takedown abilities to consistently get Lemos to the mat. Who has she beaten that should give someone a supreme level of confidence in her wrestling abilities? I have no doubt that she can win this fight dominantly if she can get multiple takedowns against Amanda Lemos. While Robertson sometimes uses the clinch and cage to get fights to the ground, her single and double leg wrestling abilities appear unathletic and ineffective against a high quality grappler like Lemos – so I do worry about that here. When watching Lemos’s tape, she certainly has been held down by high level wrestlers and grapplers – like Weili and Suarez. Although these takedowns are generally the result of athletic slams and takedowns – which are generally not the approach of Robertson. If Robertson gets it to the ground, she has been very good at utilizing ground and pound to do damage. As you can probably tell by this breakdown, I have come to lean towards Lemos as the week has progressed – but I still absolutely see a dominant pathway where Robertson can find success. It starts and ends with the takedowns! The fight that provides me the most hesitation in fully backing Robertson is Lemos’s fight against current champion, Mackenzie Dern. She stuffed all of Dern’s takedown attempts and outstruck her on the feet, which is a similar result I can see playing out in this fight if Robertson cannot get the takedown. At dog odds, I feel like Lemos is the logical and value pick on the moneyline – but be wary of the real possibility that Lemos is going to look 38 out there and get dominated (like Rob Font did last week).