Brothers at Odds

Bo Nickal

My silly brother really believes Kyle Daukaus is going to dominate this fight and I just don’t see it. Bo Nickal has only lost once in his career and that was against the crafty veteran Reinier de Ridder. It was really just a bad stylistic matchup for Bo. However Kyle Daukus should be easy work for the All American wrestler. Daukaus has shown a tendency to get punched in the face a little too often. If he can’t get a quick finish with a lucky punch or a fluke submission he’s going to be in trouble. He’s also not going to have the ability to dictate where the fight takes place as Nickal will easily be able to defend any takedown attempts. Bo is coming off of a highlight reel head kick KO of Rodolfo Vieira proving that his striking skills have significantly improved. Daukus just doesn’t have a clear path to victory in my opinion. He’s a very average striker and below average wrestler and his jiu-jitsu will be neutralized here. I’m hoping to see a wrestling heavy fight from Bo Nickal as he grinds out a decision victory and secures another Brothers Battle victory crushing my brother’s spirit even more than it already is. Bobo longtime.

Play of the Fight:
Play is Nickal Moneyline @ -310

Aiemann Zahabi

This should be a technical battle between two high-level strikers. O’Malley has been on the verge of retirement ever since he lost the belt but he had a nice comeback performance against Song Yadong last time out to revive his career. He will now have to deal with the technical striking and grappling of Aiemann Zahabi who trains at one of the best gyms in the world. While Zahabi doesn’t finish a lot of fights he is on a seven fight win streak and fights with great discipline. He’s a tough out for any opponent. I’m actually going to pick the underdog Zahabi here to grind out a win. I think O’Malley has superior speed but Zahabi should have the advantage in the clinch and grappling game. If he can get inside O’Malley’s reach and pressure him against the fence I think he can grind out a decision victory. I’m just concerned about O’Malley’s motivation and effort at this point in his career. It seems like he’s always ready to retire at a moment’s notice. Zahabi’s lifelong experience should give him the confidence he needs to compete at this high level. I’m picking Zahabi to pull the upset. 

Play of the Fight:
Zahabi moneyline +340

Kyle Daukaus

Bo Nickal vs. Kyle Daukaus is the biggest Brothers Battle of the night, and I am planting my flag on the side of the fighter who has actually been forged in the fire of the Octagon. Bo Nickal has elite wrestling, but I still view him as more UFC industry project than proven contender at this stage. Knocking out Rodolfo “doesn’t know how to strike” Vieira does not suddenly erase the fact that Bo’s striking still looks raw, his confidence feels unearned, and we have already seen him fold when real adversity showed up against RDR. Daukaus, on the other hand, has taken hard lessons, lost his UFC spot, earned his way back, and now fights like someone who knows he cannot afford to let this opportunity slip away again.

The key here is whether Daukaus can deny enough takedowns, threaten front chokes, and punish Bo for forcing wrestling exchanges. If Bo sells out for takedowns, I think Daukaus has the grappling experience and BJJ awareness to make him pay, potentially even strangling him in a scramble. Chris may be buying the Bo Nickal hype package with the shiny UFC bow on top, but I am not ready to crown a guy just because the machine told us to. Daukaus is more seasoned, more well-rounded, and far more prepared to deal with a real fight at this point in their careers.

Play of the Fight:
Daukaus Moneyline @ +280

Sean O’Malley

Sean O’Malley vs. Aiemann Zahabi feels like one of those matchups where the gap in striking creativity is going to show quickly. Zahabi is tough, defensive, and riding a real win streak, but he also has a habit of keeping his lead hand low, getting clipped, and making fights look much closer than they need to be. Against aging or lower-level opponents, that shell-and-steal style can work. Against Sean O’Malley, it feels like a recipe for getting painted up on the White House lawn. Sean has the height, reach, switch stance, speed, feints, and counter timing to make Zahabi pay every time he steps into range.

This is also one of our Brothers Battles, and I have to be honest: Chris picking Zahabi feels less like fight analysis and more like a cry for help. My brother watched Zahabi get dropped, survive questionable decisions, and win fights by finishing strong after losing most of the actual minutes, then said, “Yeah, that’s the guy to beat Sean O’Malley.” Bold strategy. I think Sean circles, jabs, counters, and makes this look like the Chito Vera 2 type of matchup where he can strike freely without fearing the wrestling. Sean O’Malley by KO/TKO or decision, most likely in Round 2 or 3 if he finds the clean shot.

Play of the Fight:
O’Malley Round 3 or Decision @ -145

Steve Garcia +124

Like I said in my fight breakdown, I’m very concerned about Diego Lopes’ health coming into this fight. He broke both of his feet in his last fight against the champion Volkanovski. That makes me wonder how he could possibly be in full shape coming into this fight. How could he possibly have his cardio where it needs to be. I think if Steve Garcia can push the pace he can have Lopes in trouble by round 3. The only question is whether Lopes has enough fight left in him to survive for 15 minutes.

Kyle Daukaus +280

My DAWG of the Week is Kyle Daukaus, and I am fully planting my flag against the Bo Nickal hype train. Bo may have elite wrestling, but this feels like the perfect spot for an experienced, well-rounded fighter to expose the difference between being pushed by the UFC machine and actually being forged in the fire. Daukaus has been through real adversity, lost his spot, earned his way back, and now fights like someone who understands he cannot let this opportunity slip away again. Bo’s striking is still raw, his confidence feels unearned, and if he sells out for takedowns, Daukaus has the grappling experience and front-choke danger to make him pay. I think Kyle D can stop enough wrestling, threaten submissions, and prove he is the more complete mixed martial artist at this stage.

The main event for this Epstein freedom card should be extremely entertaining. Justin Gaethje really lives up to his nickname “The Highlight” win or lose. His knockout loss to Max Holloway might be the all time best UFC moment although it did come at his expense. Gaethje has become more disciplined towards the end of his career but he’s still not afraid to unleash reckless violence when given the opportunity. Unfortunately for him I think Ilia Topuria is the worst possible stylistic matchup for him. Topuria is better at every aspect of MMA. He’s faster, throws sharper and more powerful strikes, has better grappling and he has youth on his side and has the better chin at this point in Gaethje’s career. I do not think Justin Gaethje has any possible chance to win this fight. I’m not even giving him a “punchers chance” because Topuria’s boxing is absolutely elite. I won’t be surprised if this fight ends in less than a minute with Gaethje going down in the very first exchange. 10 years ago this would have been a pick’em fight but at this point in time it’s going to be an absolute massacre. All of the Jeffrey Epstein clients in attendance will be sad to see their champion crumble onto the canvas. My pick is Ilia Topuria to win with a brutal KO that sends Gaethje to the shadow realm. 

Play of the Fight:
Topuria by KO in round 1 or 2 @ +105

Ilia Topuria vs. Justin Gaethje is the type of fight that sounds like pure violence on paper, but the more I break it down, the more I struggle to find a consistent path for Justin Gaethje outside of landing something nuclear. Gaethje is as tough and dangerous as they come, and if this truly is his last shot at undisputed gold, I expect him to be motivated, prepared, and willing to go out on his shield. The problem is that Ilia Topuria feels like an absolute nightmare matchup for him. Topuria is younger, faster, defensively cleaner, and far more dangerous in the grappling department than the casual fan may realize. Everyone talks about Ilia’s boxing and power, but his original base is grappling, and that matters a lot here because Gaethje has always had a major hole in his offensive and defensive MMA grappling game.

On the feet, Gaethje’s volume and knockout power are real, but he also absorbs far too much damage for someone standing across from a counterpuncher as sharp as Topuria. Justin looked slower and more plodding against Paddy, and while he still had success, the same openings he found there may not exist against Ilia. Topuria’s footwork, lateral movement, counter timing, and ability to punish mistakes are operating at a different level right now. He was able to pressure and finish elite fighters, and I do not think Gaethje can safely march forward the way he normally likes to. If Justin fights aggressively, he risks getting slipped and countered. If he fights defensively, he may find himself backing up against someone who can pressure, kick, box, and threaten grappling transitions.

The biggest danger for Ilia is still the unknown. He is undefeated, confident to the point of almost sounding delusional, and Justin Gaethje is not the kind of fighter you overlook. Gaethje has a real puncher’s chance, dangerous leg kicks, and the kind of heart that keeps him alive in fights where most people would fold. But at this stage, I think Topuria is simply too complete. He has the cleaner technical tools, the fresher chin, the sharper counters, and the grappling advantage if he chooses to expose that part of Justin’s game. I expect Gaethje to have moments early, but eventually Topuria’s speed, pressure, and power will force the mistake.

Play of the Fight:
Topuria by KO in round 1 or 2 @ +105

This fight is incredibly difficult to predict as both guys are among the best kickboxers in the world. Before I say more I should probably mention that I’m biased against Gane for his dirty eye poking tactics. So consider that when I tell you I’m picking Pereira. But I do think Alex will win as he is just the more accomplished kickboxer. Poatan is arguably one of the greatest kickboxers of all time. Winning championships in a variety of promotions before becoming a double division champion in the UFC. I’m also just not super impressed with Gane’s resume. The heavyweight division just doesn’t have a lot of good competition to test him with. He was out striking Aspinall in their bout before he stuck his finger into the back of the champion’s eye but it’s hard to say how that fight would have ended up. Other than that his best wins are decisions over Volkov and TKO’s over Tai Tuivasa and Derrick Lewis. Pereira on the other hand has defeated the best of the best. And he’s done more than just beat them, he’s absolutely slaughtered them. Knockout wins over Ankalaev, Roundtree, Prochazka, Hill, Adesanya and Strickland is a crazy resume! That doesn’t even include any of his legendary kickboxing career beforehand. Again, I’m a little biased but I don’t think there’s any logical reason to pick Gane here. Alex is an absolutely elite striker and Gane will not show him anything he hasn’t seen a million times already. Now all that being said, I am concerned that this fight could turn into a slop fest. It’s supposed to be super hot in Washington DC on Sunday and the humidity will probably be ridiculous. Neither of these guys had a tendency to hunt for knockouts from the start so I’m worried that by the second round they could both be gassed. But it’s hard to say really. This is a very unique event. Either way, I think the Epstein clients in attendance will be witness to history as Pereira becomes the first triple champ in UFC. 

Play of the Fight:
 Pereira Moneyline @ -105

Alex Pereira vs. Ciryl Gane is a massive heavyweight clash, but I am confidently backing the success, power, and aura of Pereira in this spot. Gane is a talented and technical striker, but Pereira has been dealing with elite kickboxing styles his entire life. Before he ever took over MMA, he was already one of the best kickboxers in the world, and that experience matters against someone who wants to win a clean, technical striking battle. The difference is that Pereira brings a level of danger, pressure, and finishing instinct that Gane has not consistently shown in his biggest moments.

Gane has developed a reputation for coming up short when the lights are brightest, especially in championship-level opportunities, while Pereira seems to grow stronger in those exact moments. I think the power, cardio, composure, and will to win all favor Chama here. Gane can be slick early, but eventually Pereira’s pressure, reads, and fight-ending power should take over. Alex Pereira by KO/TKO. CHAMA LONGTIME.

Play of the Fight:
 Pereira Moneyline @ -105

Anyone who watched Derrick Lewis’s last fight knows it’s impossible to pick him here. I honestly think Derrick Lewis may never win a fight ever again. He looked absolutely terrible his last time out against Waldo Cortes Acosta. Lewis was pretty much gassed already the moment he stepped into the Octagon. When he was in his prime, he had a “puncher’s chance” to win every fight. I don’t even think he has that anymore. He is just not in fighting shape. On the other hand Josh Hokit is coming off a huge win over veteran Curtis Blaydes in the all time greatest battle in UFC heavyweight history. In that fight The Incredible Hok proved that he has the required speed, toughness, chin and cardio to be a contender in the heavyweight division. Again I don’t see how it’s possible to pick Lewis here. He’s too old and slow and weathered to pull off a miracle KO. The pick is Josh Hokit by TKO under 1.5 rounds.

Play of the Fight:
Hokit by KO under 1.5 rounds @ +140

Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit feels like a spot where the name value of Lewis is doing a lot more work than the actual current version of the fighter. In his prime, Lewis always had that terrifying puncher’s chance, but after the Waldo Cortes Acosta fight, it is hard to trust that version still exists. He looked slow, exhausted, and out of fighting shape almost immediately, which is a massive concern against someone like Hokit who appears to bring the speed, toughness, cardio, and physical confidence needed to push a fading heavyweight into uncomfortable spots.

Hokit is coming off a major win over Curtis Blaydes and looks like the fresher, more dangerous side at this stage. Lewis can never be completely counted out because the power is always part of the conversation, but I do not trust his gas tank, durability, or ability to keep up if Hokit forces pace early. I agree with Chris that a TKO is very live, but I also think the submission is in play if Hokit uses his grappling advantage and Lewis gives up bad positions while tired. Josh Hokit by TKO or submission, likely under 1.5 rounds.

Play of the Fight:
Hokit by KO under 1.5 rounds @ +140

Similar to Derrick Lewis, Michael Chandler is another fighter that may never win another fight before he retires for good. At 40 years old Chandler is well past his prime and has lost his last three fights. He’s actually 1-5 in his last six. Has only win in that time coming against an aged Tony Ferguson. He was absolutely dominated by my brother’s favorite fighter Paddy Pimblett in his last outing. That fight proved that Chandler’s time in this sport is just about done. His opponent, Mauricio Ruffy, is an exciting new contender. Ruffy is 4-1 since entering the UFC and has some highlight reel knockouts to his credit. His spinning wheel kick knockout of Bobby Green was an all-timer. But more impressively he’s coming off a second round TKO victory over the always tough Rafael Fiziev. If both of these fighters were in their prime I might have taken Chandler here. At his best, Chandler might have been able to wrestle Ruffy enough to steal a decision. However, these days I just don’t have much faith in Chandler’s diminished abilities. Any amount of time this fight is spent on the feet will give Ruffy a massive advantage. Chandler might start out strong, but as the fight gets to the second and third round I expect Ruffy to dominate the striking battle and eventually overwhelm the veteran for another TKO win.

Play of the Fight:
Ruffy by TKO -250

Mauricio Ruffy vs. Michael Chandler feels like a fight where the name value of Chandler makes it more dangerous on paper than it may actually be in reality. Chandler still has explosive wrestling, power, and the ability to create chaos, but he is 40 years old and his entire style is built on athleticism, explosion, and durability. Those traits are fading, and the Paddy fight was a massive red flag. Ruffy is younger, longer, sharper, more patient, and far more composed as a striker. His McGregor-like flow, counter timing, and creativity should give Chandler major problems every time he tries to crash forward.

The one concern is whether Chandler can mix in the wrestling early and make Ruffy hesitant, especially since Ruffy has shown some questions when forced into grappling-heavy fights. But Chandler is not Benoit Saint Denis from a control or submission standpoint, and I do not trust him to sustain that kind of game plan without getting tired or making mistakes. Ruffy has been improving, training with Volk, and feels like the cleaner current fighter. Mauricio Ruffy by KO/TKO or decision, with the finish most likely coming in Round 2 or 3 if Chandler’s entries get reckless.

Play of the Fight:
Ruffy by TKO -250

Garcia enters this fight on an incredible seven fight winning streak. He has built a resume packed with high-level victories over top-tier competition, including a dominant unanimous decision over Calvin Kattar and blistering first round knockouts of David Onama, Kyle Nelson, and Chase Hooper. Diego Lopes faces another significant challenge coming off a grueling five round war at UFC 325 where he suffered double foot fractures. His mobility must have been severely limited throughout his camp. This puts his conditioning under a major microscope. While Lopes remains a highly dangerous submission threat, Garcia’s elite takedown defense and relentless forward pressure make him perfectly positioned to exploit any structural weaknesses or cardio issues from Lopes. This fight could turn into a test of durability that favors the heavy hands of Garcia. I’m picking Steve Garcia to pull the upset with a late TKO or decision victory.

Play of the Fight:
Play is Garcia by TKO or Decision @ +130

Diego Lopes vs. Steve Garcia feels like a dangerous momentum fight for Lopes. Lopes has the better submission game, the higher-level experience, and the kind of toughness that can completely ruin Garcia’s night if he survives the early fire and turns this into a complete MMA fight. His leg kicks and grappling entries against Silva stood out, and if he gets on top of Garcia, this fight could flip quickly. The concern is that Lopes can be too comfortable reacting, too willing to get hit, and too inconsistent with his grappling initiative.

Garcia, on the other hand, is entering this fight with violent momentum, improved patience, and relentless boxing pressure. He works the body well, cuts the cage, and forces opponents into uncomfortable exchanges. His biggest danger is still recklessness, because Lopes absolutely has the durability and counter/grappling ability to punish a bad entry. Still, I trust Garcia’s current form, pressure, and finishing instinct slightly more here.

Play of the Fight: Play is Garcia by TKO or Decision @ +130