Brothers at Odds

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Click here for the UFC 328: Chimaev vs. Strickland – Breakdown and Analysis

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While my pick of the week parlay – with Amosov and Sabatini – was an absolute cash of a lock play for the 2nd week in a row, I do not have much to celebrate here. I was so close to going up 6-5 but Chris snatched my win from me by backing Joshua Van. I have to admit, I was mightily impressed by the anti-grappling of Van and I was a massive doubter in his overall skillset prior to last Saturday. I originally backed Pantoja in the Van matchup… but after seeing the dominance of Van, I will be backing Van if they ever meet in the cage for a rematch. Amazing performance overall and props to Chris for picking Van. It was very reminicient of our Justin versus Paddy picks in the first Paramount card. I backed Paddy and got spanked… Saturday I got spanked again. Ouch. But I am coming back STRONG this week with solid plays and a plan to tie us back up at 6-6.

The main event was honestly a super solid fight! I loved the split decision call and I loved Strickland getting the victory! He is the champion the Middleweight division needs because he is willing to be an active champion. I think the conversation of Sean being an underrated fighter and champion needs to be one in MMA circles because he has come through as a MASSIVE underdog more than once. Great performance by Sean!

Moving to the bottom of the card and working my way up, I opened with a good call on Jose Ochoa -even though I expected more violence and thought he would find a KO or submission. Instead, he showed maturity, stayed composed, and won a clear decision over Clayton Carpenter. Then Baisangur Susurkaev gave me another correct pick, but not exactly in a way that made me feel like a genius. I said Santos was live and that the fight was closer than the odds suggested, but Susurkaev did what the favorite was supposed to do and eventually found the third-round submission. Pat Sabatini was one of the cleaner wins on my card. I trusted the grappler, and while he did not get the finish, he controlled the terms enough to win a decision over Gomis. That was the kind of pick that made sense before the fight and still made sense after it. Then came the first real slap in the face: Marco Tulio losing a decision to Roman Kopylov. I thought Tulio would be the one moving forward and doing the better damage, but Kopylov stayed durable, defended well enough, and proved he could win those minutes more cleanly than I expected. Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon hurt even worse, because I talked myself out of the legend. I wanted to back Miller emotionally, but I convinced myself Gordon was the tighter, safer boxer. Then Miller reminded everyone that experience, timing, and opportunistic grappling still matter, snatching a first-round guillotine and making my Gordon pick look cold-hearted and wrong. Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rębecki was another miss, with Dawson finding the third-round submission and punishing my faith in Rębecki. I expected more resistance and more damage from Rębecki, but Dawson’s grappling held up and he got the finish.

Thankfully, Yaroslav Amosov helped stop the bleeding by submitting Joel Alvarez in the second round, cashing the exact kind of control/submission read I liked. Ateba Gautier also came through with a second-round KO over Ozzy Diaz, which was one of the more comfortable reads on the card. Then the main card turned into a weird mix of “I knew it” and “why do I do this to myself?” King Green beat Jeremy Stephens, so the side was right, but the way it happened was hilarious because I loved the violence angle and the fight ended by rear-naked choke instead of a KO/TKO. Green still got it done, but the method was pure MMA madness. Sean Brady was probably my best main-card read. I backed him over Joaquin Buckley because I could not unsee Buckley getting controlled by Usman, and Brady went out there and won a dominant decision, proving that the grappling and top control concerns were absolutely real. One real question though: what the heck was Chris doing backing Buckley against Brady at DAWG odds? I hammered the Brady line when I saw him crash to an underdawg and it was easy money! Let’s go BRADY BLANKET! Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta is where my record deserves an asterisk, because I will die on the hill that Waldo should have won that fight. I picked Waldo, Chris picked Volkov, and even Chris walked away thinking Waldo got robbed, which tells you everything you need to know. Volkov may have had the veteran name, the length, and the cleaner-looking style at moments, but Waldo was the one doing the more meaningful work and making the bigger impact in the fight. This was not some case where I picked with my heart and got exposed – I genuinely believe the decision was wrong, and calling this a miss feels dirty. Sometimes you lose because your read was bad, and sometimes you lose because three judges decide to commit a crime against your pick slip. So, 7/13 is not embarrassing, but it is not good enough either. I had some strong reads with Brady, Sabatini, Amosov, Gautier, Susurkaev, Green, and Ochoa, but the misses on Chimaev, Taira, Waldo, Rębecki, Gordon, and Tulio made this card feel like a long lesson in humility. UFC 328 did not bury me, but it definitely slapped the confidence out of me.