Brothers at Odds

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Man does it feel good to be the Brothers Battles winner this week! What a great card! Joshua Van is truly a force to be reckoned with. Who really thought Taira was going to dominate Van on the ground? Definitely not me! Joshua Van deserves his BJJ black belt after that performance. Taira was able to drag Van to the ground a few times but as I expected Van has improved his ground game so much that he was able to create scrambles and get back to his feet every single time. Van was also super close to submitting Taira in round three. By the later rounds Taira was so exhausted that his takedown attempts were easily stuffed and Van exposed him on the feet. It was really the body shots from Van that made the difference in the end. His finishing combination was a brutal mix of body and head strikes that overwhelmed the Japanese fighter. I am a big fan of Pantoja but he’s really going to have his hands full with Joshua Van. Not sure who I’m picking there. But most importantly Robert really needs to get good because I now lead the Brothers Battles at 6-5! 

The main event was an all time shocker as the previously undefeated Khamzat Chimaev just did not look like his usual self gassing out early giving Sean Strickland a chance to steal a close decision. In round one Khamzat dominated in his standard fashion with an early takedown and top control. By round two Khamzat looked completely gassed and even pulled guard to avoid getting back up. The rest of the fight was a low volume kickboxing match where Strickland’s jab really made the difference and earned him the decision. Massive upset for sure. I think we will likely see Strickland defend the belt against Imavov and Khamzat move up to light heavyweight after this. Although I think Khamzat’s stock has fallen significantly after this performance. Not sure he ever reaches the top of the sport again. 

Alexander Volkov absolutely robbed Waldo Cortes-Acosta in an uneventful split decision victory. I had picked Volkov to win but even I admit that Waldo was robbed. I thought Waldo had won rounds one and three but I guess the judges thought differently. Tough break for Waldo and Little Bobby. Sean Brady also won a dominant decision victory over Joaquin Buckley. Buckley’s grappling defense was really disappointing here as Brady was able to ragdoll him with ease for 15 minutes. 

King Green and Ateba Gautier made it look easy against their respective opponents. Green overwhelmed the veteran Jeremy Stephens early for a slick rear-naked choke victory and Gautier took him time but eventually secured a TKO victory over Ozzy Diaz in round two. Yaroslav Amosov proved that his now 30-1 record is legit with a second round submission over the very game Joel Alvarez. I thought Alvarez had a puncher’s chance to win this fight but the grappling skills of Amosov were just too much. We could see Amosov competing for a title soon. 

In one of my biggest disappointments of the night Grant Dawson cooked my pick Mateusz Rebecki for a round three submission victory. I really thought Rebecki had the skills and the cardio to out-scramble Dawson on the mat and pressure him on the feet but boy was I wrong. Dawson controlled Rebecki for most of round one but Rebecki showed life in round two hurting Dawson with a massive hook. However Rebecki was unable to capitalize on the opportunity and wound up completely gassed out in round three. Dawson took advantage of that, planting Rebecki on his back early in round three and locked up a rear-naked choke with almost no defense from Rebecki. Incredibly disappointing performance. 

Quick wrap up of the rest of the card. Jim Miller surprised everyone with a first round submission win over Jared Gordon. Roman Kopylov grinded out a decision win over Marco Tulio. Pat Sabatini literally held on for an uneventful decision win over William Gomis. Baisangur Susurkaev locked in a late rear-naked choke over Djorden Santos but the fight did not end in a knockout as I expected. Finally Jose Ochoa dominated the overmatched Clayton Carpenter for 15 minutes. 

Overall I went 8/13 in straight up picks which definitely leaves room for improvement but all that really matters is that I won this week’s Brothers Battle as Joshua Van did what Joshua Van does and absolutely smoked Tatsuro “The Asian Baddy” Taira on the feet. Poor little Robert was so confident in this pick too. I now lead 6-5 and I plan to make it 7-5 next week. Joshua Van thank you!!!

While my pick of the week parlay – with Amosov and Sabatini – was an absolute cash of a lock play for the 2nd week in a row, I do not have much to celebrate here. I was so close to going up 6-5 but Chris snatched my win from me by backing Joshua Van. I have to admit, I was mightily impressed by the anti-grappling of Van and I was a massive doubter in his overall skillset prior to last Saturday. I originally backed Pantoja in the Van matchup… but after seeing the dominance of Van, I will be backing Van if they ever meet in the cage for a rematch. Amazing performance overall and props to Chris for picking Van. It was very reminicient of our Justin versus Paddy picks in the first Paramount card. I backed Paddy and got spanked… Saturday I got spanked again. Ouch. But I am coming back STRONG this week with solid plays and a plan to tie us back up at 6-6.

The main event was honestly a super solid fight! I loved the split decision call and I loved Strickland getting the victory! He is the champion the Middleweight division needs because he is willing to be an active champion. I think the conversation of Sean being an underrated fighter and champion needs to be one in MMA circles because he has come through as a MASSIVE underdog more than once. Great performance by Sean!

Moving to the bottom of the card and working my way up, I opened with a good call on Jose Ochoa -even though I expected more violence and thought he would find a KO or submission. Instead, he showed maturity, stayed composed, and won a clear decision over Clayton Carpenter. Then Baisangur Susurkaev gave me another correct pick, but not exactly in a way that made me feel like a genius. I said Santos was live and that the fight was closer than the odds suggested, but Susurkaev did what the favorite was supposed to do and eventually found the third-round submission. Pat Sabatini was one of the cleaner wins on my card. I trusted the grappler, and while he did not get the finish, he controlled the terms enough to win a decision over Gomis. That was the kind of pick that made sense before the fight and still made sense after it. Then came the first real slap in the face: Marco Tulio losing a decision to Roman Kopylov. I thought Tulio would be the one moving forward and doing the better damage, but Kopylov stayed durable, defended well enough, and proved he could win those minutes more cleanly than I expected. Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon hurt even worse, because I talked myself out of the legend. I wanted to back Miller emotionally, but I convinced myself Gordon was the tighter, safer boxer. Then Miller reminded everyone that experience, timing, and opportunistic grappling still matter, snatching a first-round guillotine and making my Gordon pick look cold-hearted and wrong. Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rębecki was another miss, with Dawson finding the third-round submission and punishing my faith in Rębecki. I expected more resistance and more damage from Rębecki, but Dawson’s grappling held up and he got the finish.

Thankfully, Yaroslav Amosov helped stop the bleeding by submitting Joel Alvarez in the second round, cashing the exact kind of control/submission read I liked. Ateba Gautier also came through with a second-round KO over Ozzy Diaz, which was one of the more comfortable reads on the card. Then the main card turned into a weird mix of “I knew it” and “why do I do this to myself?” King Green beat Jeremy Stephens, so the side was right, but the way it happened was hilarious because I loved the violence angle and the fight ended by rear-naked choke instead of a KO/TKO. Green still got it done, but the method was pure MMA madness. Sean Brady was probably my best main-card read. I backed him over Joaquin Buckley because I could not unsee Buckley getting controlled by Usman, and Brady went out there and won a dominant decision, proving that the grappling and top control concerns were absolutely real. One real question though: what the heck was Chris doing backing Buckley against Brady at DAWG odds? I hammered the Brady line when I saw him crash to an underdawg and it was easy money! Let’s go BRADY BLANKET! Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta is where my record deserves an asterisk, because I will die on the hill that Waldo should have won that fight. I picked Waldo, Chris picked Volkov, and even Chris walked away thinking Waldo got robbed, which tells you everything you need to know. Volkov may have had the veteran name, the length, and the cleaner-looking style at moments, but Waldo was the one doing the more meaningful work and making the bigger impact in the fight. This was not some case where I picked with my heart and got exposed – I genuinely believe the decision was wrong, and calling this a miss feels dirty. Sometimes you lose because your read was bad, and sometimes you lose because three judges decide to commit a crime against your pick slip. So, 7/13 is not embarrassing, but it is not good enough either. I had some strong reads with Brady, Sabatini, Amosov, Gautier, Susurkaev, Green, and Ochoa, but the misses on Chimaev, Taira, Waldo, Rębecki, Gordon, and Tulio made this card feel like a long lesson in humility. UFC 328 did not bury me, but it definitely slapped the confidence out of me.