Brothers at Odds

Joshua Van

The explosive kickboxer Joshua Van is trying to defend the flyweight belt he won when former champion and all time great Alexandre Pantoja injured his arm early in their fight last December. It was an absolutely bizarre way to win a title and I was disappointed at the time but this is a fantastic matchup none the less. His opponent here, Tatsuro Taira, is a lethal grappler with a decent kickboxing game of his own. Taira was a killer on the ground against Brandon Moreno and Hyun Sung Park. He systematically broke both of them down, submitting Park with a crushing face crack and absolutely ragdolling Moreno, flattening him out from back control and unleashing bombs for a brutal TKO. Now I can understand why Taira is the favorite pick here against the mostly untested ground game of Van. That being said I will be picking Joshua Van. I believe he has put the time and effort into improving his ground game well enough to force Taira to fight a kickboxing match. While we never really got to see Van fight Pantoja due to the injury, you know Van was training his grappling defense like crazy in preparation. I think that preparation plus the time preparing for this title defense is plenty of time for Van to level his ground game up enough to get back to his feet and force Taira to deal with his explosive striking and Van is absolutely lethal on the feet. It’s impressive how much power he generates as a 125 pound fighter and he uses all his limbs to deal damage. I think the power of Joshua Van will be the difference here. Taira might get Van down once or twice but I believe Van will be able to weather the early storm and get back to his feet. My pick is Joshua Van by TKO.

Play of the Fight:
Van by TKO @ +300

Tatsuro Taira

What an epic matchup! Van vs. Taira is the greatest Asian fight in MMA history and I believe it has the potential to set up a trilogy. I truly believe that if these two talents were to run this fight 100 times, we would get nearly 100 different outcomes. At this level, the talent is pitched so high and both men have solid pathways to victory. However, my gut has been telling me Taira since the moment this fight was announced. I think people are buying into the striking gap within this fight way too much. Taira is by no means a bankrupt, bad striker. He is no Grant Dawson with the hands, he actually has KO/TKOs on his record. I truly believe that the diverse striking of Taira will be effective – especially at the mid-range – and that his overall striking will be more effective as a result of his high level grappling threat. I do think Josh Van has solid takedown defense, but did no one see what just happened to Brandon Moreno? Moreno may be heading towards the washed side of things but no one has ever handled Moreno in the way that Taira did. He took the back and pounded Moreno out. I can absolutely see Taira having similar success with strikes in this matchup because I think Van has a false sense of confidence in the superiority of his striking. Taira learned a lot in his matchup with Royval that I believe he will bring into this matchup. Boxing for boxing, Van is certainly superior to Taira. But in MMA striking? I think that gap is much closer than people believe. Where the gap is widest in this fight is on the ground – which is where I believe Taira will be able to take the back and go to work. Chris may be taking Van here – and I have to respect that because Van’s potential is through the roof – but I will take Taira for the win by finish.

Play of the Fight:
Taira Moneyline @ -155 OR Taira Inside the Distance @ +140

Plus Money KO Destruction:
Baysangur Susurkaev vs Djorden Santos to end by Knockout @ -120

Again, I really think this is guaranteed to be the most action packed fight on the whole card. Both guys love to keep it standing and bang. Santos is the more aggressive of the two. He is very aggressive and seems like he turns up the volume whenever he gets clipped and his reckless style does get him clipped quite often. His has yet to be cracked but I feel like it’s just a matter of time. Susurkaev is more technical and picks his shots a bit better but he’s also guilty of letting his guard drop. He can be too reliant on “Anderson Silva” like head movement that could cost him against some as aggressive as Santos. I really think someone is getting dropped in this one. I’ll be extremely surprised if the judges are needed here.

Plus Money KO Destruction:
Green vs Stephens Ends by KO/TKO +120

For my UFC 328 Pick of the Week, I am riding with Green vs. Stephens Ends by KO/TKO at +120, because this matchup feels built for violence. Bobby Green is not the type of fighter who looks to wrestle, stall, or point-fight his way through a safe fifteen minutes. He wants to stand in front of you, talk, slip, counter, and make the fight personal. Jeremy Stephens is basically the exact wrong dance partner if you are trying to keep a fight calm. Even at this stage of his career, Stephens still carries real power, still throws with bad intentions, and still has that “bite down and swing” mentality that can turn any pocket exchange into a car crash. The reason I like the KO/TKO prop instead of trying to pick a side is because both men have danger attached to them in different ways. Green is the sharper, cleaner, more composed boxer, and if Stephens gets reckless, Green can absolutely punish him with volume, counters, and accumulation damage. But Stephens has the kind of raw power where one clean connection can flip the entire fight, especially if Green gets too comfortable standing in range and playing with fire. This does not feel like a grappling-heavy matchup, and I do not expect either guy to spend much time looking for safe control. I expect long stretches of striking, ego-driven exchanges, and both fighters willingly standing in the danger zone. At plus money, I love the value on this fight ending violently. Green vs. Stephens by KO/TKO is the play.

Most Confident Parlay:
Sabatini by DEC/SUB + Amosov by DEC/SUB @ +180

For my Most Confident Parlay, I am rolling with Sabatini by Decision/Submission + Amosov by Decision/Submission at +180, and I love this angle because it targets both fighters’ clearest winning conditions without needing either guy to force a finish. Sabatini’s path is obvious: close distance, get to the legs, drag the fight to the mat, and either hunt submissions or stack control time until the judges have no choice. Against a technical striker like Gomis, I do not need Sabatini to knock him out or win pretty exchanges on the feet – I need him to be the dominant grappler he has already proven he can be. The DEC/SUB line protects both outcomes: either Sabatini finds the neck or a dominant position and finishes, or he banks rounds through pressure and control. Amosov gives this parlay the same type of comfort. He is not a fighter I need to rely on for a wild knockout; his best work usually comes through discipline, wrestling, positional control, and smart round-winning. If he is the better fighter minute to minute, the most realistic outcomes are exactly what this line covers – a controlled decision or a submission if the opponent gives up a mistake while defending takedowns and pressure. This parlay is not built on chaos, it is built on repeatable skill sets. Both fighters have clear grappling/control advantages, both have safe decision equity, and both can still find submissions if the fight hits the right positions. At +180, I think this is the smartest confidence play on the card.

This epic main event is a classic striker versus grappler matchup only this time the grappler is one of the best wrestlers the UFC has ever seen. Khamzat Chimaev has looked virtually unstoppable during his career boasting an undefeated 15-0 record. His most recent victory over the former champion Dricus Du Plessis proved that Chimaev really is on another level as he completely dominated and embarrassed DDP for 25 minutes. DDP could do nothing but endlessly struggle against the elite wrestling attack of Chimaev. Khamzat also looked like a hot knife slicing through butter in his victories over Robert Whittaker, Kevin Holland and Jingliang Li. Absolutely crushing them all in just a few minutes. While he is undefeated, Khamzat was challenged by Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman as they are both high level grapplers that were able to get back to their feet. Burns even has Khamzat severely hurt but he just couldn’t put him away. In the end Khamzat’s relentless pressure and elite grappling skills is what ultimately earned him both of those victories. Sean Strickland undoubtedly has the gas tank to push Chimaev to the brink and he will try to take the fight to Chimaev. He will never stop coming forward and never stop trying to get back to his feet when taken down. My concern with Strickland is that he hasn’t really shown the one punch knockout power that might be necessary to defeat Chimaev. Without that puncher’s chance Strickland will need to stuff Chimaev’s takedowns for 25 minutes and that is asking a lot. I don’t see any reason why this fight will not look very similar to Chimaev’s win over DDP. We all know “Borz” will try to take Strickland down immediately and avoid a striking battle. The only question is whether Strickland can survive on the ground for 5 full rounds. I will be picking Khamzat Chimaev to win this fight and I’m honestly going to keep picking Chimaev to win again and again until someone is able to defeat him. I think the championship run for Khamzat Chimaev has only just begun.  

Play of the Fight:
Khamzat Chimaev to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission @ -200

What an epic main event! However, I do think it is one way traffic in this Striker vs Grappler matchup. In this fight, Chimaev will likely ragdoll Strickland and do whatever he wants to the American. I would absolutely love to see Strickland find a pathway to victory but I do not see it being a likelihood in the slightest. People backing Strickland seem to take the Fluffy Hernandez fight as evidence of Strickland being the ultimate antigrappler… Please tell me where Fluffy actually attempted a quality takedown or tried to chain his wrestling together? Right, you can’t answer that question honestly because Fluffy thought it would be a great idea to box Sean Strickland. Khamzat will not make the same mistake, he will dominate Sean and strangle him just like he did when he trained with Strickland as a 170lbs about 5 years ago. The footage of Sean in an interview admitting to being submitted tells me everything I need to know. When I was also scrolling through my phone about a month ago, I came across a short on YouTube where a famous youtuber calls Sean while sitting next to Arman Tsarukyan. Sean essentially implied that betting on him would be like flushing money down the toilet: “it’s your money” followed by laughter. Those intangible factors – combined with the dominance of Khamzat in the cage – make it nearly impossible for me to see a tangible pathway for Sean Strickland. I think Khamzat is a lock this weekend – there are levels to the grappling and physicality. If the beef between Khamzat and Sean is real, I think “Borz” will find a finish.

Play of the Fight:
 Khamzat Chimaev to Win by KO/TKO/DQ or Submission @ -200

I’m being honest when I say that I want to pick Waldo here. I badly want to see new contenders at heavyweight. No disrespect to Volkov but he’s been around the block a couple times already and Waldo is new blood for a weak division. I’m also being honest when I say that I cannot bring myself to pick Waldo here. While he is on a three fight win streak the quality of his opposition is questionable. His most recent victory was against a sad version of Derrick Lewis that is a mile past his prime and over all of the hills. Lewis was gassed before he stepped into the cage. Waldo’s most recent loss was against Sergei Pavlovich last August. Pavlovich was able to out-point Waldo on the feet in a technical kickboxing fight. That has me concerned for Waldo against a bigger, longer and more technical kickboxer in Volkov. “Drago” has a wealth of experience with 50 professional fights under his belt. He’s been fighting in the UFC for a decade now and has seen it all. Volkov is on a 5-1 run and has looked great in recent wins over Jailton Almeida and Sergei Pavlovich. He looked a clear level above Pavlovich on the feet. His only recent loss against Ciryl Gane was competitive as well and it could be argued that Volkov won that fight. So with all that being said I’m picking Volkov here. I think he pieces Waldo up worse than Pavlovich did and adds another win to his lengthy resume.

Play of the Fight: Volkov Moneyline @ -142

I am so torn in this fight. I initially leaned Volkov because of his experience, size, and striking skillset. However, I have become more and more convinced by the momentum of Waldo. He has been smoking fools in the cage – albeit fools who are very smokable. I would be shocked if he handled Volkov in the same way. But I have this feeling that Waldo is going to mix it up well in this fight. Waldo has not shown his ground game much in the UFC but I do believe it can be higher quality than people believe because he has been training with a quality wrestler in Tyrell Fortune. Volkov – with his long legs and tall stature – is a victim for takedowns and control at this late stage in his career. Volkov won a robbery against Almeida in a grapple F’ing of the century where he looked slower than I have ever seen him before. I think that Waldo can make Volkov concerned about his boxing skillset and then mix it up with the takedowns. I will take Waldo by decision in this spot. 

Play of the Fight: Waldo Moneyline @ +120

This is an incredibly difficult fight to predict. Both guys are coming off high profile losses they would like to put behind them. Brady is coming off a rough first round TKO loss to undefeated title contender Michael Morales. Brady was unable to execute his usual wrestling heavy game plan against Morales and he was no match for the Ecuadorian on the feet. Buckley is coming off a five round decision loss to former champion Kamaru Usman. Buckley was unable to stay on his feet during that match as Usman was able to drag Buckley to the mat with ease for the majority of that fight. Buckley did show life in round five as Usman began to tire but it was too little too late. The question here is whether Buckley can defend the takedown attempts from Brady. If Buckley can keep the fight standing I don’t think Brady will be able to handle his speed. If Brady can drag the fight to the mat he could smother Buckley into submission with top pressure. After much consideration, and flipping back and forth constantly, I’m going to end up picking Joaquin Buckley here. While I am concerned with his takedown defense I just think Buckley is athletic enough to get back up if Brady is able to drag him down. Even Leon Edwards was able to survive underneath the press of Brady for a few rounds. It wasn’t until later in their fight that Brady really began to overwhelm Leon with his top pressure. Sean Brady is a very talented fighter but he just isn’t at the same champion level of a Kamaru Usman. I don’t believe he will be able to hold Buckley down for 15 minutes. I think Joaquin Buckley’s defensive grappling is just good enough to keep the fight standing long enough for him to use his speed and power to give Brady trouble.

Play of the Fight:
 Buckley by TKO or decision @ +150

Another matchup that is totally confounding me this week is Brady vs. Buckley, because both sides come with very real red flags. I am still suspicious of Brady’s chin and his ability to battle through serious adversity in the cage. The Belal Muhammad loss is hard to ignore because Belal is primarily known as a pressure wrestler, not some devastating knockout artist, and yet he was able to hurt and finish Brady on the feet. That makes it uncomfortable to fully trust Brady against someone as explosive as Buckley, because Buckley absolutely has the kind of power that can flip a fight instantly if he lands clean. With that said, I cannot unsee what happened when Buckley fought Usman. He was put flat on his back, controlled, and largely neutralized, and I think Brady brings a grappling threat that is even more dangerous in certain areas. This should not be a spot where Brady is undersized or physically overwhelmed either; he should be fairly comparable in strength and size, while holding a massive advantage in BJJ, top pressure, and submission danger. Buckley’s knockout upside is real, but I do not view him as a consistently accurate or technically efficient striker. When he lands, it is violent, but there are stretches where he misses big, overextends, and gives opponents opportunities to close distance. For me, the pick comes down to whether Brady can survive the early explosive moments and force Buckley into grappling exchanges. If he can, I think Brady can do a lot more than just control from top position – he can threaten, advance, damage, and potentially find a finish.

Play of the Fight:
Brady Moneyline -180

When Bobby Green was knocked out by Mauricio Ruffy last year I thought his career was over. Ruffy caught him with a beautiful spinning wheel kick that sent Green to the shadow realm instantly. At 39 years old with over 50 fights under his belt I thought Bobby Green was at the door of retirement. Boy was I wrong. Green followed that Ruffy loss with a gritty decision victory over Lance Gibson Jr. and an impressive TKO victory over young prospect Daniel Zellhuber. I really thought Zellhuber would be too much for Green at this point in his career but to my surprise Green put the pressure on the younger fighter and proved that his career is far from over. Jeremy Stephens is another longtime UFC veteran with a mountain of experience. Unfortunately Stephens hasn’t experienced the same late career resurgence that Green has. Stephens is a dreadful 1-8 in his last nine outings. He hasn’t won a fight since 2018. Earlier in his career Stephens had a reputation for being a deadly power puncher but we haven’t seen that explosiveness from him in many years now. His highlight reel KO of Rafael dos Anjos was 18 years ago. That’s crazy!!! I don’t see Stephens resurrecting his career like Green has. Bobby Green is obviously the pick here considering the lack of recent success from Stephens. I’ll be surprised if Stephens doesn’t retire after this fight.

Play of the Fight:
Bobby Green Moneyline @ -440

The battle of brawling Uncs! I love this fight at this stage in both men’s careers. When I was watching the interviews for both Green and Stephens, it sounds like both men want war. Green spoke about how both men have some psycho in them and I tend to agree, I think they are both going to love throwing down until someone goes to sleep. There is a slight chance that this could be a boring decision fight between uncs but no recent evidence points me in that direction. I will take Bobby Green at his word when he says that he is going to stand in front of Stephens and throw down. I think this fight produces a knockout, I will take Bobby Green because he has actually won a UFC fight since 2018… wow Jeremy, even worse than Tai Tuivasa last week! But do not get me wrong, I think either guy has real potential to knock the other out. I will take Green to get the KO but would not be surprised at all if Stephens finds that himself.

Play of the Fight:
Fight to End by KO/TKO @ +130

Ateba Gautier is a killer. He was on an 8 fight TKO win streak before his recent decision victory over Andrey Pulyaev. In the Pulyaev fight Gautier proved that he’s more than just a first round knockout machine. He showed great resilience and cardio when he was unable to put Pulyaev away early. It was a big test for the up and coming Cameroonian prospect that he passed. His opponent Ozzy Diaz doesn’t have quite the same reputation. Diaz has shown power in his hands prior to his arrival in the UFC but he hasn’t had much success since then. He was flatlined by an elbow from Mingyang Zhang in his UFC debut and squeaked out a decision victory over Djorden Santos. Watching those two fights has me concerned for Diaz as he just seems to get hit way too much. Santos landed over 100 significant strikes on Diaz. If Gautier lands even half of that Diaz is cooked. The pick is Gautier to add another knockout to his highlight reel.

Play of the Fight:
Gautier by first round KO @ -140

One way traffic here for Gautier – who continues to receive favorable matchups. Gautier was previously scheduled to fight Diaz, but Diaz pulled out of the fight and Pulyaev stepped in on short notice. In my opinion, Pulyaev is an underrated MMA fighter who gave Gautier a tougher fight than he has experienced previously – which I think will serve the development of Gautier well. Diaz – on the other hand – loves to get punched in the face and should absolutely get knocked out in this spot. No need for a bigger breakdown than this, it is simple: Hulk smash = Gautier smash!

Play of the Fight:
Gautier by first round KO @ -140

Yaroslav Amosov boasts an impressive 29-1 record and was undefeated until very recently losing to Jason Jackson by KO. That was the first time Amosov experienced real adversity as he was unable to wrestle Jackson to the ground like he has done to so many opponents in the past. His first and only UFC appearance was against Neil Magny giving Amosov a perfect stylistic matchup and an easy submission victory in his UFC debut. Joel Alvarez is a UFC veteran with well rounded skills. He has long limbs that he uses to his advantage on the feet and an aggressive submission game on top of it. He is capable of finding an exciting finish with a variety of weapons. He especially loves throwing flying knees and hunting for anaconda chokes. I’m just not sure how Alvarez’s takedown defense will hold up against Amosov. Alvarez has had trouble with wrestlers in the past and that will clearly be Amosov’s strategy here. Alvarez has also shown a tendency to shoot for unnecessary takedowns himself that don’t really work in his favor. Usually resulting in Alvarez fighting off his back. This is a tough one to pick but I’m going to take Amosov to wrestle his way to career win number 30 although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Alvarez pull off a dynamic knockout either.

Play of the Fight:
Joel Alvarez to Win By KO/TKO/DQ or Yaroslav Amosov to Win by Decision @ +100

Amosov vs Alvarez has a variety of pathways to a conclusion. Alvarez is a brutal striker and opportunistic submission ace, whereas Amosov is a dominant control wrestler and submission artist in his own right. Where I struggle to back Alvarez is with his approach to fighting: I find him to be incredibly passive, reactive, and too accepting of bottom position. When you watch Alvarez fight, he appears a little too tentative with his striking for my liking. When he strikes with violence, the results are incredible. However, he does not always go for the kill and sometimes waits to react the the other fighter – which was exemplified in his decision win over Luque. The manner inwhich Alvarez will play the bottom jits game also concerns me against a hyperelite wrestler like Amosov. If Alvarez can change these qualities within this matchup and make the appropriate adjustments, he has the potential to look like a favorite inside the cage. However, I do not see that happening based on the extensive evidence that has been presented. A couple other factors stick out to me in this fight. First, this is the second fight for Alvarez at 170 because he was a lightweight before. When he was at lightweight, he fought Arman Tsarukyan and was absolutely handled in that spot. That was against a smaller man at a lower weight class, so I expect a larger and stronger Amosov to smesh in this spot. I see Amosov having a very similar pathway to victory with his dominant grappling style. Amosov by submission or decision is my pick. 

Play of the Fight: Amosov Moneyline @ -192

Mateusz Rebecki is the physical embodiment of toughness. His powerful but compact frame combined with his relentless determination makes him a difficult opponent for anyone. While he is a bit short and stocky for lightweight he makes up for it with power and a never give up attitude. He’s not afraid to fight anywhere and proved he’s capable of taking on the very best with an impressive decision win over rising contender Myktybek Orolbai. Core strength really made the difference for Rebecki in that fight as Orolbai was unable to imply his usual grappling heavy grinding style that has broken many other fighters. I think that spells trouble for Grant Dawson as he is reliant on dragging his opponents to the mat and maintaining top control. I absolutely do not believe Dawson will have any success holding Rebecki down. Rebecki is too explosive and too tough to accept bottom position. I think it is that explosiveness of Rebecki that will make the difference here. Dawson tends to get cracked when he’s forced into a striking battle and he won’t be able to withstand the power of Rebecki.

Play of the Fight:
Rebecki Moneyline @ +124

Mateusz Rebecki is a true warrior in the cage – a warrior who loves to bleed a metric ton. In this spot against Dawson, I favor the grit of Rebecki because he thrives in dirty fights. Adversity is the friend of Rebecki and the enemy of Dawson in this spot. If Dawson can get takedowns and pin Rebecki to the ground, I think he absolutely dominates this fight. But that is not the pathway I see here for our friend Dawson with a glass slipper of a chin. Rebecki has been in nothing but wars – win or lose. The one fight that gives me a fairly solid level of confidence in Rebecki is his matchup with Orolbai. He withstood the grappling threat – which has aged like fine wine – and even landed a takedown of his own. I will take Rebecki to stay on the feet or scramble during takedown attempts. Rebecki by KO is my pick for this matchup.

Play of the Fight:
Rebecki Moneyline @ +124

At 42 years old Jim Miller will once again try to prove that age is not a factor for him. He faces another longtime UFC veteran in Jared Gordon. Both guys are coming off losses and are fighting to keep their careers alive. As the oldest fighter on the UFC roster Miller has been close to retirement for a while now but he’s been able to pick up the occasional win to keep him going. However, those victories have only come against low-level competition for many years now. His last fight was a decision loss to Chase Hooper where Miller was outclassed on the mat for the better part of three rounds. It was a tough look for Miller who primarily relies on his grappling to earn him victories and can struggle when he can’t get an opponent down. At 37 years old Jared Gordon isn’t far from retirement himself. He’s coming off a rough TKO loss to the powerful Rafa Garcia. In my opinion Gordon really looked like age was catching up to him but that could have been due to an apparent knee injury so it’s hard to say for certain. Despite that loss, I think Jared Gordon has a significant advantage here. He still has power in his hands. He fought Thiago Moises a year ago and sent Moises into the shadow realm with a flawless right hand of doom. I think we could see a similar result here as Miller has never been anything close to a technical striker and I believe he will struggle to hold Gordon down for very long. Gordon loves to fight in the pocket and will likely land a bomb on Miller before too long. I’m picking Jared Gordon to win by TKO in what very well could be the last fight of Jim Miller’s historic career.

Play of the Fight:
Gordon by TKO @ +330

The first of two “unc” matchups on this card gives us Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon, and emotionally, this is one of those fights where I would love to find a reason to back Miller. After everything he has gone through outside the cage with his son’s cancer battle, it is impossible not to respect the man, the career, and the toughness he still brings every single time he walks to the Octagon. But when I separate the story from the actual matchup, I just do not see a clean or reliable pathway for Miller to win this fight. Miller is still dangerous early, especially if he can create chaos, attack a leg, jump on a neck, or turn a scramble into a submission threat, but Gordon feels like the much safer and more functional side minute to minute. He is the tighter boxer, the more durable pace-pusher at this stage, and the fighter I trust more to win exchanges in the pocket without getting reckless. Gordon does not need to be flashy here – he just needs to stay responsible defensively, keep his hands busy, avoid giving Miller extended grappling looks, and make the older fighter work at a pace he may not be able to sustain. Miller’s best chance is probably some vintage first-round madness, but if Gordon survives those early danger spots, I think he starts taking over with pressure, volume, and cleaner boxing. I hate betting against a legend, especially one with a story that makes you want to root for him, but this feels like Gordon’s fight to lose. Decision or KO for Gordon.

Play of the Fight:
Gordon Decision or KO/TKO -250

Roman Kopylov cannot catch a break. He must have upset someone in the UFC matchmaking department because they keep matching him up with killers. Kopylov is coming off back to back decision losses against Gregory Rodrigues and Paolo Costa, two of the most powerful men in the middleweight division. Kopylov was never really able to pressure either opponent or put together significant combinations. He can be very hesitant to let his hands go. While Kopylov didn’t win either fight it is somewhat impressive that he was able to compete for 15 minutes without getting his head knocked off. But Marco Tulio will definitely try to do that. Tulio likes to come at his opponents even more aggressively than Rodrigues or Costa do. Tulio won’t allow Kopylov to just sit back and pick his shots. He will be blasting Tulio with 1-2’s and hooks. Tulio did exactly that in his TKO victory over Tresean Gore blasting Gore right through his guard until Gore could guard himself no more. Tulio most recently struggled with the unorthodox style of Christian Leroy Duncan but I don’t see him having those same issues here with the stationary Kopylov. I’m picking Marco Tulio to win and finally hand Roman Kopylov his first knockout loss.

Play of the Fight:
Roman Kopylov to Win By Decision or Marco Tulio Silva to Win by KO/TKO/DQ @ -150

Roman Kopylov vs. Marco Tulio feels like a classic “durability versus pressure” matchup, and while I respect Kopylov’s toughness and defensive wrestling, I lean Tulio by decision here. Kopylov is not an easy guy to run through – he is durable, experienced, and usually difficult to take down cleanly, which makes me hesitant to call for a dominant finish. But I also do not love the idea of Kopylov spending long stretches of this fight backing up, reacting, and trying to win moments instead of minutes. Tulio should be the one pressing forward, forcing exchanges, and making Kopylov fight at his pace. Even if the takedowns are not always there, the forward pressure, damage, and optics could matter a lot, especially if Tulio is consistently the fighter initiating and landing the harder shots. Kopylov can be sharp when he gets space, but I do not view him as some terrifying killer off the back foot who is going to punish every entry or make Tulio pay badly enough to completely change the fight. Tulio’s path is not necessarily to steamroll him – it is to stay responsible, keep Kopylov uncomfortable, mix in grappling threats when available, and bank rounds by being the more aggressive and damaging fighter. Kopylov’s durability probably keeps him in it, but I think Tulio does enough across three rounds to win a competitive but clear decision.

Play of the Fight:
Tulio Decision @ + 310

This is another textbook striker versus grappler matchup. Pat Sabatini will do everything he can to drag Gomis to the mat and hunt for a submission finish. William Gomis will try to deny Sabatini’s takedown attempts and force a rangy kickboxing match. While Gomis has been vulnerable to takedowns in the past he has shown great composure and technique when he winds up in bottom position and has the ability to get back to his feet. He has also shown great cardio and resilience late in fights often coming on strong in the third round. Pat Sabatini is the classic MMA wrestler that likes to pressure his opponents with constant clinch and takedown attempts. With his high level wrestling background this strategy has worked well for Sabatini over the years and he has 12 submission victories to show for it. I think Sabatini’s wrestling skills will be too much for the French kickboxer this time. Gomis hasn’t really fought anyone at Sabatini’s level and he won’t have as much success getting back to his feet this time around. The pick is Sabatini but Gomis is tough enough to survive for 3 rounds. 

Play of the Fight:
Sabatini Moneyline @ -205

Sabatini vs. Gomis is a prototypical striker-versus-grappler matchup, and in this spot, I am absolutely siding with the grappler. Gomis is a technical, point-fighting style striker who can be clean at range, but he has not shown the type of dangerous finishing ability in the UFC that makes me believe Sabatini has to be terrified of every entry. That matters because if Gomis is not badly hurting him early or forcing major hesitation, Sabatini should be able to pressure, level change, and turn this into the type of fight he wants. Gomis has also shown enough evidence that he can be taken down, controlled, and forced into uncomfortable grappling positions, which is a nightmare against someone as committed and dominant on the mat as Sabatini. For Gomis to win, he likely needs to fight a nearly perfect striking match – stay long, manage distance, punish entries, avoid the fence, and land clean enough shots to make Sabatini second-guess his wrestling. I just do not trust that as the most likely outcome. Sabatini does not need to overcomplicate this fight; he needs to close space, get his hands locked, drag Gomis down, and make him carry weight round after round. Once Sabatini gets this fight grounded, I think the gap becomes obvious. Overall, this feels like light work for Sabatini if he fights intelligently, and I expect him to win in dominant fashion – either by submission or through heavy grappling control.

Play of the Fight:
Sabatini Moneyline @ -205

I think this might be the best guarantee for an action-packed matchup on the whole card. Both guys love to keep it standing and hunt for knockouts and both guys have a tendency of not keeping their guard up. Baisangur Susurkaev is the more technical of the two fighters. He does a better job of picking his shots and mixing in an annoying front body kick that keeps his opponents at bay. Djorden Santos is definitely on the wilder side. He’s more than happy to jump into the pocket and wing power punches. This actually works for Santos most of the time but it also results in Santos getting blasted with counters. He’s been able to eat them so far but eventually his chin will crack and I think Susurkaev might be the one to do it. Susurkaev is my pick but I do not expect this fight to make it to the judge’s scorecards no matter who wins.

Play of the Fight:
 Fight to End by KO @ -120

Baisangur Susurkaev vs. Djorden Santos is one of those fights where I understand why the favorite is the favorite, but I do not think the gap is nearly as wide as the odds may suggest. Susurkaev should have the more diverse overall skillset, and if he fights composed, mixes his weapons, and does not get reckless, he probably has the cleaner path to winning rounds. He has enough tools to make Santos uncomfortable in different areas, and that versatility matters in a matchup where momentum could swing depending on who controls the pace. But I am not fully confident in Susurkaev because there are still questions about his discipline, fight IQ, and how he handles a tough opponent who is not just there to be overwhelmed. Santos feels live here if he can stay defensively responsible, extend the fight, make Susurkaev work for every exchange, and turn this into a closer, grittier battle than people expect. I would honestly love to see Santos win a decision and teach Susurkaev a little lesson in humility, because this does not feel like some easy showcase fight to me. Susurkaev may be the rightful pick based on tools and upside, but Santos is not a walkover, and if Susurkaev gets too comfortable or starts believing the hype, this could get uncomfortable fast. This fight is much closer than the odds imply, and while I slightly lean Susurkaev, I would not be shocked at all if Santos makes this ugly and steals a decision.

Play of the Fight:
Santos Moneyline (Value Play – Not Likelihood) @ +500

Clayton Carpenter brings a relentless grappling style to the table, but his striking can often look stiff and predictable compared to his opponent Jose Ochoa. The most glaring advantage for the Peruvian is his elite hand speed, which consistently allows him to beat his opponents to the punch during pocket exchanges. Even in his decision loss to Asu Almabayev, Ochoa demonstrated remarkable defensive resilience and the ability to stay dangerous while under heavy wrestling pressure. His performance against Lone’er Kavanagh also showcased his high volume abilities, even though he was ultimately outpointed in a very competitive contest. These setbacks against elite competition have clearly forced Ochoa to evolve, particularly in his ability to scramble back to his feet and avoid being pinned to the canvas. Ochoa also loves to hunt for submissions during scrambles. Clayton Carpenter is a good grappler but I think he will struggle to find consistent success against Ochoa. As the rounds wear on, expect Ochoa to utilize his superior reach and output to systematically break down Carpenter’s defenses. I’m backing Jose Ochoa to secure the victory here by submission or knockout.

Play of the Fight:
Ochoa Moneyline @ -170

Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa is a really fun matchup between two talented fighters, but I am backing the killer instinct of Ochoa in this spot. Carpenter is skilled, composed, and well-rounded enough to make this competitive, so I do not want to act like this is some easy read. He has the tools to make Ochoa work, especially if he can stay defensively responsible and avoid getting dragged into wild exchanges. But Ochoa feels like the more dangerous finisher to me, and that matters in a fight where both guys may have moments. I trust Ochoa to create the bigger momentum swings, hurt Carpenter in scrambles or striking exchanges, and capitalize quickly once he sees an opening. He has that violent opportunistic style where he does not just win minutes – he looks to end fights. Carpenter can absolutely have success if he keeps this technical and measured, but I do not love the idea of him having to be perfect for three rounds against someone with Ochoa’s finishing instincts. Whether it comes from a clean shot on the feet, a scramble that turns into a submission threat, or a chaotic sequence where Ochoa smells blood and jumps on the finish, I think he finds a way to get it done. I am backing Ochoa by KO or submission, and I do not think this fight sees the final horn.

Play of the Fight:
Ochoa by KO/Sub @ + 210