Brothers at Odds

Alex Perez

This high-stakes flyweight matchup features an intriguing clash of styles and career trajectories. Veteran American contender Alex Perez brings an experienced, well-rounded game anchored by powerful calf kicks and a heavy top-control wrestling threat. On the other side, China’s Sumudaerji “The Tibetan Eagle” enters with immense momentum, riding his dynamic, long-range southpaw striking. Physical dimensions will play a major role here, as Sumudaerji carries a substantial seven-inch reach advantage that he uses beautifully to snipe opponents from the outside. For Perez to find success, he must mitigate that length by applying constant forward pressure, utilizing heavy leg kicks to chop down the taller man’s base, and timing his level changes. Sumudaerji’s biggest vulnerability historically has been his defensive grappling, particularly against physical fighters who can force him to the canvas and neutralize his speed. However, Perez enters this bout with a massive wave of confidence following a spectacular bounce-back performance in January. In that recent outing at UFC 324, Perez reminded the division of his explosive power by dispatching a very dangerous Charles Johnson via a violent first-round technical knockout in just over three minutes. That quick night at the office proved Perez still has the elite speed and killer instinct needed to shut down surging prospects. Expect Perez to weather the initial striking storm from range and implement his wrestling to wear down the favorite, and secure a grinding, hard-fought decision victory. 

Play of the Fight:
Perez moneyline

Sumudaerji

I’m backing Sumudaerji here because his length, striking range, and ability to fight behind his weapons can give Perez problems if he keeps the fight standing. Perez is experienced, durable, and well-rounded, so this is not a comfortable pick, but Sumudaerji has the tools to make him work from the outside and pay for every entry. The big question is whether Sumudaerji can defend the grappling and stay off the back foot for too long. If he can keep space, stay active, and make Perez chase him, I think Sumudaerji can edge this one with cleaner striking and better moments.

Play of the Fight:
Sumudaerji Moneyline @ +115

Team Alpha Male’s Song Yadong brings explosive boxing combinations, elite speed, and a high-level wrestling pedigree to the Octagon. Former two-time flyweight champion Deiveson Figueiredo counters with devastating power, a highly dangerous submission game, and the psychological edge of veteran experience. A major factor in this matchup will be the age and physical wear, as Song is a full decade younger and likely possesses the superior durability at this stage of their careers. Figueiredo has struggled recently against elite, high-pace strikers, dropping three of his last four bouts against top-tier competition. Song will look to establish his heavy hands early, utilizing lateral movement to avoid getting trapped against the fence where the Brazilian is most dangerous. If Figueiredo cannot secure early takedowns to slow the pace, he risks getting systematically picked apart by the faster man’s combinations. The hometown crowd will give Song an extra boost of momentum, fueling his aggressive output across the five-round distance. Expect Song to utilize his superior speed, sharp counter-striking, and strong takedown defense to dictate the terms of the fight. Ultimately, the younger hometown favorite should sweep the later rounds to secure a clear, unanimous decision victory. Sing your song Yadong!

Play of the Fight:
Song Yadong by Submission or TKO @ +110

I’m backing Song Yadong here because this feels like the kind of matchup where speed, youth, and sharp boxing can really show up. Figueiredo is always dangerous, especially with his power and veteran experience, but Yadong has the quicker hands, cleaner entries, and enough takedown defense to keep this fight in his preferred range. If he stays disciplined and does not get pulled into wild exchanges, I think Yadong can land the more consistent shots and slowly take over the fight. This is a big-name test, but I like Yadong to rise to the moment and get his hand raised.

Play of the Fight:
 Yadong by Finish @ +110

The light heavyweight co-main event in Macau features a high-octane collision between two explosive finishers looking to rebound from recent setbacks. Chinese powerhouse Zhang Mingyang “The Mountain Tiger” enters the Octagon eager to bounce back on home soil. His opponent, the number fifteen ranked Alonzo Menifield, travels to hostile territory looking to act as the ultimate spoiler and defend his spot in the rankings. Looking at their recent performances, Zhang is eager for redemption after suffering a tough knockout loss to Johnny Walker last August at UFC Shanghai. Menifield is also looking for a vital mental reset, coming off a stoppage loss to former title challenger Volkan Oezdemir last November. Stylistically, this fight promises absolute fireworks given that Zhang carries a spectacular one-hundred percent career finishing rate while Menifield is known for loading up on lethal, fight-ending haymakers. Youth and structural durability will play a massive factor here, as the twenty-seven-year-old Chinese prospect holds an eleven-year age advantage over the thirty-eight-year-old veteran. Menifield’s best path to victory relies on utilizing his veteran savvy, timing his explosive counterpunches, and testing Zhang’s defense if the fight extends past the opening frame. However, Zhang’s relentless forward pressure and disciplined, tight guard should allow him to comfortably dictate the pocket exchanges. Expect Zhang to feed off the massive energy of the partisan home crowd, push a blistering pace right out of the gate, and find the target early. Ultimately, the younger fighter’s precision and aggressive volume will prove to be too much, resulting in a spectacular first-round knockout victory for Zhang.  

Play of the Fight:
Zhang by TKO @ -160

I’m riding with Zhang Mingyang because his striking danger is hard to ignore, and this fight feels like it could turn into a power battle early. Menifield is tough, explosive, and absolutely capable of making this ugly, but Mingyang has the kind of finishing ability that can change the fight in one clean exchange. I like his aggression, his confidence, and the way he commits when he sees an opening. Menifield is not an easy out by any means, but if Mingyang can stay composed and avoid getting trapped against the fence, I think he finds the bigger shots and keeps building momentum.

Play of the Fight:
Sumudaerji Moneyline @ +115

Former interim title challenger Sergei Pavlovich looks to maintain his position at the top of the mountain after solidifying a two-fight winning streak with recent decision victories. Standing across from him is Tallison Teixeira, a towering twenty-six-year-old giant who stands six-foot-eight but actually gives up a slight reach advantage to the Russian enforcer. Teixeira enters the Octagon again after gutting out an exhausting decision win over veteran Tai Tuivasa back in January. However, this matchup represents a massive step up in competition for the young prospect, who has struggled structurally when facing elite power in the past. Pavlovich is notoriously terrifying in the early minutes, historically known for a record-setting string of six consecutive first-round knockout finishes over top-tier contenders. For Teixeira to pull off the massive upset, he must rely on his youth, utilize his massive frame to enforce a grinding wrestling match, and push Pavlovich into the later rounds. Unfortunately for the Brazilian, Pavlovich possesses highly underrated defensive wrestling and a distinct technical edge when trading heavily inside the pocket. If Teixeira cannot force the fight to the canvas early, he will be forced to play a highly dangerous striking game against one of the hardest hitters in MMA history. Expect Pavlovich to find his range early, exploit Teixeira’s striking defense with a barrage of heavy combinations for a powerful TKO victory.

Play of the Fight: Pavlovich by TKO @ -275

I’m backing Sergei Pavlovich because his power and experience at the higher level make him a tough ask for almost anyone at heavyweight. Teixeira brings size, upside, and danger, but Pavlovich has already been in there with serious competition and knows how to punish mistakes quickly. At heavyweight, one clean shot can end the night, and Pavlovich is one of those fighters who does not need much time or space to make that happen. If he pressures smart, keeps Teixeira uncomfortable, and lets his hands go early, I like Pavlovich to remind everyone why he is still a major problem in this division.

Play of the Fight: Pavlovich KO @ –275

Former RIZIN champion Kai Asakura enters the contest determined to break a disappointing two-fight skid since making his high-profile promotional debut. On the other side, Cameron “The Boston Chutzpah” Smotherman is looking to reverse his own fortunes and prove he belongs among the elite 135-pounders. Looking at their recent performances, Asakura is moving up in weight after a brutal weight cut contributed to back-to-back submission losses against elite flyweights Alexandre Pantoja and Tim Elliott. Smotherman is also hungry for redemption, coming off a tough unanimous decision loss against veteran Ricky Simón that halted his momentum in the division. Stylistically, this fight promises to be a high-paced kickboxing battle as both fighters possess natural knockout power and prefer to keep the action standing. Asakura’s primary path to victory lies in his blistering hand speed and technical, multi-strike boxing combinations from the outside. Meanwhile, Smotherman must establish a punishing inside leg kick game to chop down the Japanese star’s movement and neutralize his explosive entries. Free from the severe physical drain of cutting to 125 pounds, Asakura should look much sharper, heavier, and more durable in his natural weight class. Expect Asakura to find his rhythm early in the pocket, exploit Smotherman’s striking defense, and unleash a fight-ending flurry to secure a spectacular second-round knockout victory. 

Play of the Fight:
Asakura by TKO +110

I’m taking Kai Asakura because I think his speed, movement, and finishing instincts give him the edge in this matchup. Smotherman is game and should not be overlooked, but Asakura has a more dynamic offensive style and can create chaos when he gets into rhythm. The key for Asakura is not getting reckless while chasing big moments. If he stays sharp, mixes his attacks, and uses his experience to control the pace, I think he can land the cleaner work and separate himself as the fight goes on. This feels like a strong spot for Asakura to make a statement.

Play of the Fight:
Asakura by TKO +110

This upcoming welterweight matchup features a compelling clash between two experienced veterans looking to secure a vital bounce-back victory. Australian standout Jake “The Celtic Kid” Matthews brings a highly well-rounded, battle-tested skillset back into the Octagon. His opponent, dangerous grappler Carlston Harris, accepted this high-stakes contest on short notice after Muslim Salikhov was forced to withdraw. Harris boasts an elite Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu pedigree and a terrifying anaconda choke, presenting a constant threat if the fight hits the canvas. Matthews counters with excellent athleticism, crisp kickboxing combinations, and heavily improved defensive wrestling. A major strategic factor will be Harris’s short-notice conditioning, which could be severely tested if the fight extends into the later rounds. Matthews will likely look to employ sharp lateral movement to keep the fight standing and systematically pick his opponent apart from range. While Harris possesses the submission utility to end the fight at any moment, the full training camp should heavily favor the Australian. Expect Matthews to successfully deny the early takedown attempts, control the center of the cage, and utilize his superior pacing. Ultimately, Matthews should outwork his opponent over the fifteen-minute distance to secure a clear unanimous decision win.  

Play of the Fight:
Play is Harris by submission or Matthews by decision @ +125

I’m backing Jake Matthews because I trust his experience, composure, and overall balance in this matchup. Harris is dangerous, especially if he can force grappling exchanges and make the fight physical, but Matthews has been around tough competition for a long time and usually brings a steady, professional approach. I like Matthews if he can keep the fight measured, avoid giving up bad positions, and use his striking to build confidence round by round. This may not be the flashiest pick on the card, but it feels like the kind of fight where Matthews’ toughness and experience can carry him to a solid win.

Play of the Fight:
Matthews by Finish @ -115