Brothers at Odds

Jack Della Maddalena

Before his recent loss to the pound-for-pound king Islam Makhachev at UFC 322 Jack Della Maddalena was on a historic 17 fight win streak. JDM is extremely durable and has proven himself to be an almost unstoppable force in the Octagon. While Prates enters the cage with a 5 inch reach advantage and deadly power in his straight left and knees, JDM is still a much more technical and polished striker who uses disciplined boxing to break opponents down systematically. Prates is great at striking from the outside, but he is not as effective in the pocket which is exactly where JDM thrives. By using aggressive forward pressure and his more refined, technical footwork to negate Prates’ reach JDM can punish the body and sap his opponent’s gas tank and rely on his own proven durability. Prates is very dangerous and has the ability to end the fight instantly with one single strike but JDM’s ability to counter inside the pocket, combined with his technical precision and the home court advantage sets the stage for him to return to the win column. I’m picking JDM to use his disciplined striking game to pull ahead in the later rounds for a decision victory or possibly a TKO in the championship rounds. 

Play of the Fight:
JDM by Decision or TKO +100

Carlos Prates

I think this fight has the potential to be a Fight of the Year contender! Watching tape and thinking through possibilities for this fight had me feeling like I was in a windtunnel this week. So many violent possibilities! One morning I would wake up and pick JDM, the next morning I would pick Prates, and this repeated for days. Because the reality is that this is a close, highly volatile fight that could go a variety of ways. I finally settled on picking Prates with a medium level of confidence because he has two things going for him: more overall weapons in his bag AND more power. When Prates hits people, they crumble. You know who had a destroyed face against Belal “Who Remembers the Name” Muhammad. Belal does not regularly do that to people, which tells me that JDM is hittable. So what happens when Prates hits him? That is the biggest question that pushed me to Prates because I think JDM could crumble from the sheer damage he will wear. I think Prates can get a finish or a damaged based decision. I cannot blame Chris for taking the JDM side of things because his boxing in the pocket is as elite as it comes. But I think JDM’s power is generally a bit overrated – especially compared to a killer like Prates. War Prates LONGTIME!

Play of the Fight:
Prates Moneyline -118

Dariush has recently struggled with his durability following several knockout losses, including his most recent knockout loss to Benoit Saint-Denis. While Dariush still possesses an elite grappling game he faces a daunting physical challenge in Salkilld, who is 10 years younger with a significant 3 inch reach advantage. Salkilld is on an 11 fight win streak with a 4-0 UFC record. He comes into this fight following the two best performances of his career, a highlight reel head kick knockout of Nasrat Haqparast and an impressive neck crank submission of Jamie Mullarkey. This battle hinges on whether Dariush can weather an early storm and force Salkilld into a grappling match. But I think Salkilld’s superior speed and explosiveness will prove too much for the veteran’s aging chin. Salkilld’s ability to dictate the range with his length and the momentum from fighting in his hometown should be more than enough to secure him a dynamic victory.

Play of the Fight: Salkilld by TKO -185

I truly believe Quillan Salkilld is the next Volk for the Australian people in the UFC. I am not saying he is guaranteed to be a world beater, but he certainly has the potential to make waves in the UFC at the highest levels. He truly could be champion one day if he keeps putting in the work and staying humble. Even without additional success, he is already a star! He has a solid finishing skillset and can end the fight through grappling or strikes. In this matchup against Dariush, Salkilld will be truly tested for the first time. However, I think it is an easy test for him to pass. Not because Dariush lacks skills – he is one of the highest skilled fighters you will see. But his chin is absolutely dust at this point in his 155 career. I believe Salkilld should try to knock out Dariush here if he is engaging in a smart game plan. Grappling here could be a fatal error because that is Dariush’s most elite skillset. If Dariush does get knocked out here, I hope he either puts down the gloves or give it one shot at 170. Salkilld by sheer brutality.

Play of the Fight:
Salkilld Inside the Distance -275

Tim Elliott is a crafty veteran coming off a massive submission win over the talented Kai Asakura. Elliott possesses an aggressive wrestling heavy style but Erceg represents a much more technical and polished version of a complete MMA fighter. Erceg’s clinical boxing allows him to maintain a high volume of strike while staying defensively sound. The tactical reality is that Elliott is 39 years old and is now a step slower and often keeps his hands low in his unorthodox stance, which leaves him dangerously vulnerable to Erceg’s sharp counter striking and timing. Although Elliott averages nearly four takedowns per fight and will try to drag this into a messy grappling war, Erceg has shown elite composure and takedown defense even against the division’s top champions like Pantoja and Moreno. Even if Elliott gets Erceg down I don’t think he’ll be able to hold him there for very long. Unless Elliott can catch him in a chaotic scramble I expect Steve Erceg to win. Erceg should be able to defend the grappling attacks of Elliott and take advantage of his opponent on the feet to secure himself the victory.

Play of the Fight:
Erceg by Decision -110

Every fiber in my body wanted to like Tim Elliott in this spot against Steve Erceg… But I could not determine a clear path to victory for Elliott. I do feel like I have bias in this spot as a Steve Erceg disbeliever. I have never been too high on his overall potential or skillset at the highest level, even though he definitely has some MMA skills. I do think he should pass the Tim Elliott test on the scorecards at home in Perth. Elliott’s greatest path to victory is generally through the grappling but Erceg’s base is grappling. At the very least, I see Erceg staying safe throughout the fight if it hits the mat. While I do not think Erceg is a world beater on the feet, he should have more technical and fundamental striking than Elliott. I believe Erceg takes this fight on the cards… but if the 39 year old Elliott manages to pull this out, Erceg is going on the fade list. Erceg by decision.

Play of the Fight:
Over 2.5 Rounds -245

Marwan Rahiki enters the Octagon as a favorite with immense momentum as a high capacity striker who excels at maintaining a breakneck pace and overwhelming opponents with volume. He will try to break through the defense of Oliver Schmid, a resilient up and comer who is known for his durability and ability to turn fights into gritty wars. While Schmid has the ability to capitalize on any mistakes, his defensive history suggests he can be susceptible to high volume attackers who don’t let him settle into his rhythm. The tactical key for Rahiki will be utilizing his superior speed and lateral movement to keep Schmid on the move, preventing the underdog from landing the heavy counters he relies on. Schmid’s path to victory lies in forcing a “phone booth” battle where he can test Rahiki’s chin and disrupt his flow with clinch work. But I think Rahiki’s long reach and athleticism along with relentless pressure will be the deciding factors. I am picking Rahiki to win but my real pick is for this fight not to go to a decision. Unfortunately there’s not much value to be found here.

Play of the Fight:
Fight Not to go to Decision @ -750

Wow am I in a pickle over this fight! I was a massive supporter of Rahiki against the weak, unimpressive Hardwick – who Chris was all about supporting! In this spot, I am leaning towards the short notice fighter. This spot reminds me of Ethan Ewing vs Malcolm Wellmaker – where Ewing was a massive underdog that made it happen. I think this fight is vastly closer than the odds would like you to believe because it will likely be a close striking fight on the feet. I absolutely believe someone will be going to sleep! For some reason, my gut is telling me that the sky high chin of Rahiki is going to get brutally touched by a capable striker. Based on the minimal tape that was available, Schmid has a solid striking skillset and flow on the feet. I do worry about his 3 round cardio because that has not been seen yet, but he should be able to strike well with Rahiki on the feet. Another thing that pushes me towards Schmid is his size. Rahiki has almost always had a solid size advantage against his opponents, which has favored him big time. He treated Hardwick like a child as a result. But you can see in the final faceoff that Schmid’s posture was tall and that he is no push over. He was eye level with Rahiki and he is ready for war. If the odds were closer to pick ’em, I would back Rahiki. But there is no way I can back that tall chin and minimal head movement as a massive favorite. Let’s ride with the DAWG!

Play of the Fight:
Schmid Moneyline +470

Pericic holds a massive advantage in volume, landing nearly five times the output of Gaziev. This pressure will likely overwhelm Gaziev, who has struggled with a negative striking differential and was recently knocked out in just over a minute by Waldo Cortes-Acosta in November 2025. Pericic also enjoys the physical edge, standing an inch taller with a 79.5 inch reach and also being five years younger than the 35 year old Gaziev. Training alongside elite strikers like Carlos Ulberg, Pericic has shown rapid improvements in his technical game and takedown defense. Gaziev’s primary path to victory is his wrestling, but Pericic boasts solid takedown defense and showed he could pop right back up when tested in his last fight against Louie Sutherland. Gaziev has shown a tendency to drop his hands during exchanges, a fatal flaw against a fighter like Pericic who has a 100% finishing rate and has never seen a third round as a professional. While Gaziev is a dangerous veteran, his recent durability issues suggest he won’t be able to withstand the technical discipline and power coming back at him. I think Pericic’s superior athleticism and killer instinct earns him another TKO victory.

Play of the Fight:
Pericic Moneyline -120

Have you seen the man they call the blob? His name is Shamil Gaziev and he loves to eat food! Ironically, he is about to be the meal on the plate bright and early the morning of the UFC fights. I have the highest level of confidence that Brando Peričić is going to spark Gaziev and put his lights out – similarly to Waldo. I do not think it is going to close whatsoever. Brando Peričić’s cardio past round 1 is an unknown but we are banking on the Blob Gaziev having better cardio? I think now. War Peričić by KO!

Play of the Fight:
Peričić Moneyline -120

The UFC is throwing Tuivasa an easy lifeline to snap a devastating seven-fight losing streak. Tuivasa enters this matchup as a clear favorite to win by knockout, as Sutherland’s brief Octagon tenure has been defined by a glaring lack of athleticism and a chin that seems to disappear the moment he is touched. In his previous two UFC appearances, Sutherland lasted just 84 and 108 seconds, demonstrating a complete inability to weather the storm or utilize any type of defense. His recent TKO loss to Brando Pericic exposed a reckless entry style and a serious lack of cardio, as he appeared winded and overwhelmed after just a few seconds. Sutherland has almost zero endurance, which is a fatal flaw against a brawler like Tuivasa who only needs one heavy connection to end the night. By matching “Bam Bam” against a fighter who has been finished in the first round in all of his UFC outings, the promotion is clearly banking on Tuivasa’s power to overwhelm Sutherland’s fragile defense. While Tuivasa has struggled against the division’s elite, he remains a significantly more explosive and battle tested athlete than Sutherland, who looks physically outmatched at this level. The gap in experience is massive, and Sutherland’s sluggish movement will likely make him a stationary target for Tuivasa’s devastating leg kicks and overhand rights. Ultimately, Sutherland’s poor conditioning makes it nearly impossible for him to survive a sustained exchange. I expect Tai Tuivasa to win by 1st round KO followed by his iconic “shoey” celebration. 

Play of the Fight:
Tuivasa by KO @ -125

The true battle of the blobs! How anyone could have a high level of confidence in Tuivasa on a 6 fight skid is beyond me… Sutherland has not looked great in the UFC but he was destined to lose in his matchups. Walker is heel hooking the entire world and Peričić is looking to be a heavyweight with consistent finishing potential. But I do not think that makes Sutherland complete trash, he is always willing to throw down. Which is also what concerns me here considering that Peričić starched Sutherland about 1 month ago. It seems like everyone wants to back Tuivasa in this spot for a knockout – everyone wants to see that shoey and I cannot blame them for it. But I think Tuivasa is way past it. I can see this turning into the most disgusting heavyweight slop possible and I do think this fight goes over 1.5 rounds. Tuivasa’s last fight went this way and it was a complete slop fest. Once Tuivasa was on his back, he could not do anything and I truly see the same thing happening here. Sutherland’s smartest gameplan would be to use the wrestling and lay his chunky monkey right on Tuivasa’s face. I will take Sutherland by decision.

Play of the Fight:
Over 1.5 Rounds -135