Brothers at Odds

Virna Jandiroba

While Ricci is a younger athlete with a bit more energy Jandiroba is widely considered one of the most elite submission specialists in the entire division. Her path to victory starts with her relentless grappling pressure, as she averages nearly three takedowns per fight and constantly hunts for the finish. Jandiroba also holds a significant reach advantage, which should help her stay safe on the feet while she looks for the perfect moment to close the distance. Once the fight hits the mat, Jandiroba’s world class jiu-jitsu usually takes over, and her ability to maintain top control is incredibly difficult to shake off. She has way more experience against the absolute elite of the division, which gives her a major edge in composure during scrambles.

While Ricci is a strong judo player, Jandiroba’s technical ground game is deep enough that she could even threaten a submission from her back if she needed to. Ricci tends to get into wild exchanges, and that’s exactly where a veteran like Jandiroba can capitalize on a mistake to lock in a choke or an armbar. Even if the fight goes the full fifteen minutes, Jandiroba’s ability to rack up control time and land the heavier, more impactful strikes should sway the judges. This is a “must win” fight for Jandiroba’s career which should bring out the best version of her. Look for Jandiroba to use her superior grappling skills to neutralize Ricci’s offense and secure a clear decision or a late-round submission.

Play of the Fight is Jandiroba Moneyline

Tabatha Ricci

I’m siding with Tabatha Ricci in this matchup. While Virna Jandiroba is one of the most dangerous submission specialists in the division, this feels like a spot where timing and momentum matter more than anything. Prime for prime, I’d probably lean Jandiroba in this fight most of the time, but she’s not that same version anymore. She’s in her late 30s, has taken some tough losses – including two against the current champion – and it feels like the momentum is trending in a downwards direction. At the same time, Ricci is still developing, still improving, and entering the phase of her career where we usually see fighters take that next step.

That said, this isn’t a free win for Ricci by any means. Jandiroba’s grappling is still elite, and if she’s able to consistently close distance and get this fight to the ground, she can absolutely control long stretches or even find a submission. Ricci’s shorter reach and her tendency to be a bit passive on the feet in past fights are real concerns here, especially in a smaller cage where space disappears quickly. If she allows Jandiroba to dictate the pace or gets backed up too easily, that’s where things can get dangerous.

For Ricci, the path is clear: she needs to bring the fight forward, stay active, and make this a striking-based matchup while defending the takedowns. I think her youth, energy, and improving skillset allow her to do just enough to win rounds, even if it’s not the cleanest performance. If she can keep this fight standing for the majority of the time, I see her edging this out on the scorecards.

Play of the Fight is Ricci Moneyline

Renato Moicano

Renato Moicano has all the tools to remind everyone why he’s ranked in the top ten. While Chris Duncan is a powerhouse who loves a brawl, Moicano’s elite jiu-jitsu is on a completely different level. Moicano just needs to keep his cool during the early striking exchanges and use his jab to find a window for a takedown. Once the fight hits the floor, “Money” Moicano becomes a shark, and he’s incredibly good at finding his opponents back and locking in slick submissions when his opponents start to tire. Even if the fight gets gritty, Moicano has the cardio and the mental toughness to push through all five rounds.

Duncan has good grappling skills of his own and he is definitely dangerous, but he hasn’t been tested by someone with Moicano’s level of experience and grappling skills yet. It’s likely that Moicano will weather an initial storm then drag the fight into deep water and start breaking Duncan down. By staying patient and not getting lured into a wild slugfest, Moicano can dictate exactly how this fight goes. It wouldn’t be surprising at all to see Moicano walk away with a signature submission or a dominant decision win to get back on track. In the end, Moicano’s experience in big time fights should be the deciding factor that gets his hand raised.

My Play is “Money” Moicano Moneyline

Chris Duncan

Chris Duncan is an absolute marauder in the cage and I believe his relentlessness will get him the W on Saturday. Renato “Money” Moicano is obviously a very skilled, proven veteran and you can’t overlook what he brings to the table, but this feels like a spot where momentum and overall hunger could play a huge role. Duncan is still building his name, still climbing, and I think that edge matters against someone like Renato Moicano who has already made his money and had his run near the top.

What makes this fight tricky is the familiarity between them. Both guys have spent time at American Top Team, so there’s a layer of unknown here. They’ve seen each other before, and Duncan has even said he never submitted Moicano in the gym. That tells you how high-level Moicano’s grappling is, and it’s definitely something to respect. But at the same time, they haven’t trained together in a while, and Duncan has continued to evolve. I think his overall MMA game has taken a step forward, especially in how he mixes striking with opportunistic grappling.

Moicano’s clearest path is still on the ground, and if he can consistently control positions, he can absolutely win this fight. The way he dominated and damaged BSD was impressive. But I’m not convinced he’ll be able to dominate Duncan there the way he has others. On the feet, I give Duncan the edge in terms of pressure, physicality, and ability to wear on his opponent over time. If this turns into a drawn-out, gritty fight, I think that favors Duncan more than people expect.

There’s also a real chance Duncan can snatch a neck if Moicano gets too comfortable shooting. He’s got the ability to threaten with a guillotine in those exchanges. But more than anything, I see this playing out as an attritional fight where Duncan gradually breaks Moicano down with pressure and damage.

Play of the Fight is Duncan by KO/TKO (although his guillotine finish is always live too!)