Brothers at Odds

Clicking each fight will take you further down the page to each Brother’s analysis!

Charles Jourdain

Kyler Phillips is coming off two straight decision losses to Rob Font and Vinicius Oliveira. He has struggled recently when fighters push a high pace and refuse to let him settle into his rhythm. He had early success against Oliveira landing big powerful shots in round 1 but Oliveira battled back landing more shots on Phillips in rounds two and three. Font was also able to outwork Phillips in the latter rounds and negated Phillips wrestling by working his way back to his feet immediately upon hitting the ground. On the other hand, Charles Jourdain has looked revitalized since dropping to 135 pounds. He has shown a relentless pressure game and a much more dangerous submission threat than we saw at featherweight. While Phillips is a good wrestler, Jourdain is notoriously difficult to keep down and thrives when he can turn a technical match into a brawl. Jourdain will likely look to use his physical size and volume to bully Phillips against the fence, testing the gas tank and durability of “The Matrix.” Phillips must remain disciplined with his distance control and counter-striking to prevent Jourdain from finding a rhythm with his creative spinning attacks. The grappling exchanges will be significant, especially considering Jourdain’s recent submission victories which suggest his ground game has finally caught up to his kickboxing skills. Both guys are incredibly durable. Phillips has never been finished in 16 pro fights. However I have a feeling this fight won’t make it to the judges scorecards. Phillips looked very hittable in the later rounds against Oliveira. If he allows Jourdain to control the pace he will find himself in real trouble. Unlike Phillips previous opponents Jourdain has the skills to finish the fight on the feet or by submission again. I’m picking Jourdain here and I won’t be surprised if he puts Phillips away in round 2 or 3.

Jourdain Moneyline @ -135

Kyler Phillips

I get where Chris is coming from on the Jourdain side, but I’m leaning the other way here even if it’s not with full confidence – Kyler Phillips has dropped two straight decisions, but there are positives in those losses because he went three hard rounds with Rob Font and Vinicius Oliveira and proved he’s durable, tough, and very hard to finish – that matters a lot in this matchup. Jourdain brings pressure, chaos, and a real submission threat at 135, but that style can play right into Phillips early because when he’s fresh his “Matrix” movement, stance switches, and speed make him incredibly difficult to deal with. I think Phillips can win round 1 by controlling distance, mixing in his wrestling, and banking minutes before Jourdain finds a rhythm. The key is discipline because Phillips cannot get drawn into a brawl or fight Jourdain’s fight – but the danger is real because that same pressure and scrambling style can leave his neck exposed and Jourdain has shown he can lock up a guillotine in those chaotic exchanges. This feels like a control vs chaos fight where Phillips wins minutes early or Jourdain capitalizes on a mistake late. I see two likely outcomes here Phillips Decision or Jourdain Submission – I’m siding with Phillips because I trust his ability to win rounds early and survive late even if it gets sketchy down the stretch

Phillips Decision OR Jourdain Submission @ +130

Parlay:
K
@ -135

I

Double Chance Play:
G
@ +105

I .

L @ +124

T

l @ +225

D

I think Mike Malott is catching Gilbert Burns at the perfect time. Malott is the younger, more explosive athlete right now, and he’s going to have a massive speed advantage the second they touch gloves. We know Burns is an absolute legend but the mileage from all those wars is starting to show and Malott has the clinical striking that can find the worn out chin of Burns. Malott is a massive welterweight who knows exactly how to use his reach to keep a powerhouse like Burns on the outside. This will force Gilbert to take desperate shots from way too far out. A price he paid heavily in his TKO loss to JDM. Even if Burns tries to make it a grimy grappling match Malott’s takedown defense is legit, and he’s got a sneaky dangerous guillotine waiting if Gilbert gets lazy. Malott has a 100% finish rate, so he isn’t looking to win a technical sparring match. Burns likes to wing heavy overhands when he gets tagged and that’s exactly when a disciplined sniper like Malott is going to counter him perfectly. You’re looking at a guy in Malott who has all the momentum in the world against a legend who might just have one foot out the door. When you factor in the size, the fresh legs, and that Team Alpha Male game planning, Malott has every tool needed to end this one early. I love Gilbert Burns as much as anyone but I think his time in the sport has come to an end.

Play of the Fight:
Malott KO/TKO @ -135

First off, I really tried to back Gilbert Burns here. I have so much respect for Burns as a martial artist because he is as well-rounded and dangerous as they come. But he is also 39 years old and has been through wars with the top talent in his division. The way he is wearing damage and getting outboxed is not a good look. He looks like he enjoys getting punched in the face and that he is welcoming concussions at this point in his career. I cannot back a fighter with those realities, no matter how juicy the odds. I will have to pick Malott as the more well-rounded, primed fighter in this matchup. While I do think Burns has superior wrestling, Malott has a very underrated ground game when he is fresh. If Burns can survive to the later rounds within the fight, I absolutely believe that he has a chance to finish a tired Malott. However, the way damage has been magnetically attached to Burns’s face leads me to believe that Malott will get a KO in his spot within his home country of Canada. As a striking coach and a proven UFC finisher, it should almost be expected of Malott to find his way to an attritional knockout over a burnt Burns.

Play of the Fight:
Fight Does Not Start Round 5 @ -280

Mandel Nallo enters his UFC debut with a 100% finish rate in his career. He is 14-3 and has never been to the judges’ scorecards win or lose. Nallo is a dynamic finisher who thrives on early chaos, whereas Herbert relies on his superior reach advantage and footwork to win rounds. Nallo lands with volume while Herbert plays a more patient, defensive game. Herbert’s path to victory involves weathering the initial storm and dragging Nallo into deep water where the newcomer’s gas tank remains unproven. However, Nallo’s ability to find the finish both on the feet and on the mat makes him a multi-faceted threat that is difficult to prepare for. Nallo will have a high-level game plan specifically tailored to exploit Herbert’s tendency to get caught in wild exchanges. While Herbert has the experience edge, he has shown a vulnerability to being finished late in fights when the pressure ramps up. This fight likely comes down to whether Nallo can land one of his signature highlight-reel strikes before Herbert can establish his jab. Herbert is a tough out for anyone, but Nallo’s explosive power and variety of attacks should prove too much for the veteran to handle in the early going. I think Nallo will use his speed advantage to close the distance and find a home for a heavy strike that ends the night early.

Play of the Fight:
Nallo Submission or KO @ +100

I’m rolling with Mandel Nallo in this spot and I really like his chances to make a statement in his debut. Nallo comes in 14-3 with a 100% finish rate and has never seen the judges, which tells you exactly what kind of fight he brings every single time – he thrives in chaos, pushes a high pace early, and has legit finishing ability both on the feet and on the mat. On the other side, Jai Herbert is the more experienced fighter with a clear reach advantage and a style built around range, patience, and winning minutes with his jab and movement. But Herbert has shown cracks, especially when fights get messy or when opponents force him into exchanges he doesn’t want to be in. He’s been finished multiple times and that’s a real concern here against someone like Nallo who is constantly hunting for the kill – Herbert’s path is to stay long, survive the early storm, and drag Nallo into deeper waters where his gas tank is still a question mark. But I think that’s easier said than done because Nallo’s speed, pressure, and willingness to engage are going to make it very difficult for Herbert to settle into any kind of rhythm. If Herbert can’t establish his jab early and keep this fight at range, he’s going to be forced into the exact type of fight that favors Nallo – and once it gets chaotic, I trust Nallo to find the moment. Whether it’s a big shot on the feet or capitalizing on a scramble, he has shown he only needs one opening to end a fight. Herbert is dangerous and experienced, but he has looked a step behind lately and I think that trend continues here. I see Nallo closing the distance early, forcing exchanges, and landing something big before Herbert can get comfortable.

Play of the Fight:
Nallo Submission or KO @ +225

Jasudavicius enters this bout with a distinct height and reach advantage, which she typically uses to establish a suffocating pace from the opening bell. Silva is a dangerous grappler with a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt and a knack for finding submissions in the heat of a scramble. While Silva has the higher submission rate, Jasudavicius boasts significantly better takedown defense making it difficult for Silva to force the fight to the mat. Jasudavicius has also shown incredible durability and a massive gas tank, often getting stronger as the fight enters the third round while opponents begin to fade under her grinding style. Silva struggled in her recent outing against Macy Barber, where she was out-landed and out-wrestled, especially in rounds two and three, suggesting that high-level pressure might be her kryptonite. Jasudavicius will likely look to use her clinch game and dirty boxing to wear Silva down against the fence. If Silva cannot find a flash submission early she may find herself falling behind on the scorecards as the rounds progress. Ultimately, Jasudavicius’s ability to dictate where the fight takes place and her superior cardio should be the deciding factors.

Play of the Fight:
Jasudavicius Moneyline @ -298

I’m siding with Jasmine Jasudavicius in this matchup because I think she simply has more ways to win and can control where this fight takes place. Jasudavicius comes in with a clear height and reach advantage that she uses well to set a suffocating pace from the start, and her ability to pressure, clinch, and grind opponents over three rounds is a real problem for most of this division. Silva is absolutely dangerous and cannot be overlooked, especially with her high-level Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and ability to snatch submissions in scrambles – that is clearly her best path to victory here. But outside of that submission threat, there are real concerns. Silva’s takedown defense has shown holes, and we just saw her struggle against strong pressure and wrestling when she faced Macy Barber, particularly as the fight went into the later rounds. That is not a good sign heading into a fight against someone like Jasudavicius, who thrives on breaking opponents with pace and physicality. If Jasudavicius chooses to wrestle, I think she will have success getting Silva down and controlling position, and she’s shown she can even threaten submissions of her own in those exchanges. On the feet, Jasudavicius should be the more consistent and durable fighter, using volume and clinch work to bank minutes while wearing Silva down. If Silva cannot find an early submission, I think she’s going to struggle to keep up as the fight progresses – and that’s where Jasudavicius really separates herself with her cardio and ability to take over late. Silva is live for a submission at any moment, but Jasudavicius has multiple paths whether it’s controlling grappling exchanges, pushing pace to a dominant decision, or even locking up a submission herself.

Play of the Fight:
Fight Ends Inside the Distance @ +185

Moisés brings a massive experience advantage into the cage, having shared the Octagon with elite competition like Islam Makhachev. Gauge Young, while five years younger, is a volume striker and is a hungry rising talent looking to prove he belongs in the big show. Young has a pace that can overwhelm a more calculated counter-striker like Moisés. While Moisés is a decorated Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, Young’s athleticism and takedown defense provide him the necessary tools to keep this fight standing. Young’s path to victory relies on using his superior speed and footwork to out-point the Brazilian and avoid being pinned against the fence. While Moisés has shown incredible durability, Young possesses the kind of “one-shot” power that can change the trajectory of a fight in an instant. While Moisés is dangerous he often struggles with high-pressure strikers who refuse to let him dictate the grappling exchanges. The fight will likely be a battle of Young’s relentless output versus the technical efficiency of the veteran.

Young has the speed and the striking volume to navigate the veteran’s dangerous grappling game. This is close but I’m going with Young most likely by decision.

Play of the Fight:
Young Moneyline @ –166

I’m taking a shot on Gauge Young here because I really believe in the upside and what we’ve already seen from him against guys like Evan Elder and Salkild. Moisés clearly has the experience edge and has been in there with elite competition like Islam Makhachev, but this feels like one of those spots where the younger, faster, more dynamic fighter can give him serious problems. Young is a high-volume striker with great speed, footwork, and an ability to keep a pace that can overwhelm more calculated fighters, and I think that’s exactly the kind of style that can disrupt Moisés. The big question in any Moisés fight is the grappling, because we know how dangerous he is as a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu black belt, but I think Young’s takedown defense is being slept on – he’s shown he can stay upright against solid competition, and if he does that here, it completely changes the fight. If this stays standing, I expect Young to be the one landing more, moving better, and controlling the tempo over three rounds. Moisés is tough and durable and will have moments if he can slow things down or get this to the mat, but he has struggled at times with pressure and output when opponents don’t let him settle into his rhythm. Young has that kind of style – constant movement, volume, and the ability to mix in power when openings present themselves. He doesn’t need to overextend, he just needs to stay disciplined, avoid getting backed up to the fence, and trust his striking advantage. If he does that, I think he can bank rounds and even potentially KO Moisés along the way. This is a step up in competition, but I think the potential is real and we see it come through here.

Play of the Fight:
Young Moneyline @ –166

Barbosa enters his UFC debut with massive hype after a standout performance on Dana White’s Contender Series, where he showcased terrifying first round knockout power. While Buzukja is more experienced he is returning from an 18 month layoff so ring rust is a concern. Barbosa is an absolute finisher with 16 of his 17 pro wins coming in the first round. Buzukja’s path to victory lies in surviving the initial storm and dragging his opponent into the later rounds where Barbosa’s gas tank is untested. However Barbosa only needs one clean shot to end the night, and Buzukja has been stopped by heavy handed strikers in the past. The Brazilian also brings a high-level jiu-jitsu game to the table, making him a dangerous threat even if the fight hits the canvas. Buzukja will be up for the challenge but overcoming the physical explosiveness of Barbosa is a tall order. The speed and power discrepancy will likely be evident from the beginning, forcing Buzukja to be more defensive from the start. Buzukja is tough as nails, but I’m picking Barbosa to win with a highlight reel KO. Barbosa will overwhelm Buzukja early with powerful strikes.

Play of the Fight:
Barbosa KO @ -225

I’m siding with Márcio Barbosa here and I think this is one of the more dangerous debut spots on the card for an opponent. Barbosa comes in with serious hype after that Contender Series performance and it’s easy to see why – the guy has terrifying first round power and 16 of his 17 wins coming inside the first round tells you everything about how he fights. He is not here to win minutes, he is here to end fights immediately. On the other side, Dennis Buzukja has the experience edge, but the 18 month layoff is a real concern and this is not the kind of opponent you want to shake off rust against. Barbosa is explosive, fast, and throws with bad intentions from the opening bell, and we’ve seen Buzukja struggle with heavy handed strikers before. If this stays on the feet early, it heavily favors Barbosa and that’s where the danger is at its highest – Buzukja really needs to lean on a grappling heavy gameplan, slow this fight down, and try to drag Barbosa into deeper waters where his gas tank is still a question mark. That is his clearest path to victory. But the problem is actually getting there, because Barbosa only needs one clean shot to shut the lights off and he’s incredibly dangerous even in scrambles with his jiu-jitsu. If Buzukja can survive the early storm, there is a real chance this fight flips, because Barbosa’s style is so front loaded and we don’t know how he looks if this extends past round 1. Buzukja is tough enough and capable enough to capitalize late, even potentially finding a finish of his own if Barbosa fades. But that’s a big if, and surviving those first few minutes is a tall task. I think Barbosa comes out fast, closes the distance, and lands something big before Buzukja can implement any kind of grappling control.

Play of the Fight:
Fight Ends by KO @ -300

Valentin enters this bout on a three fight skid. He was recently fed to the wolves in a first round KO loss to the powerful Ateba Gautier back in July. On the other side, Julien LeBlanc is making his long-awaited UFC debut riding a massive wave of momentum with five consecutive wins. Valentin technically holds an UFC experience advantage but his recent habit of getting caught early is a major red flag against a finisher like Leblanc. LeBlanc is a well rounded threat with the ability to win by knockout or submission. He has a particular fondness for rear-naked chokes when the fight hits the floor. LeBlanc’s recent victories over UFC veterans like Darion Weeks prove he is ready for this level and won’t be intimidated by Valentin. For Valentin, this fight is about survival. He needs to prove his chin can still hold up. If Valentin can’t establish his jab and find his rhythm in the first five minutes, he risks being overwhelmed by the UFC newcomer. It really feels like Valentin is trending toward the exit while Leblanc is peaking at the perfect time for a promotional debut. Valentin is at a crossroads, and his recent durability issues are hard to ignore against a guy like LeBlanc who is fighting in front of his home fans. Expect  LeBlanc to land a heavy shot or a transition to the back for another submission win.

Play of the Fight:
Leblanc by TKO or Submission @ +300

I’m backing Robert Valentin here because I think the experience gap and overall physicality are going to be major factors in this fight. Valentin has already been in there against tough UFC-level competition, and even though the results haven’t always gone his way, those kinds of matchups tend to sharpen a fighter in ways that don’t always show on paper. He’s seen the speed, the pressure, and the grappling at this level, and I think that matters a lot against someone like Julien LeBlanc who is still proving he belongs. LeBlanc does have some solid tools, especially his body kicks which can be effective if he’s able to keep this fight at range and establish a rhythm early – but outside of that, I don’t see a well-rounded enough skillset to deal with what Valentin brings. Valentin should be the more physical fighter, and I expect him to lean into that by closing distance, initiating clinch exchanges, and working his grappling where he has a clear advantage. If he can neutralize the kicking game and turn this into a grind, I think the fight swings heavily in his favor. LeBlanc’s path is to stay long, stay clean, and try to pick at Valentin from the outside, but I don’t think he’ll be able to consistently stop the forward pressure or defend the takedowns over time. Once Valentin gets this fight to the mat, I expect him to control position and start opening up opportunities for a finish. This feels like a spot where experience, strength, and grappling take over as the fight progresses, and I think Valentin capitalizes in a big way. I see him breaking LeBlanc down, finding an opening on the ground, and securing his first UFC finish.

Play of the Fight:
Valentin by TKO or Submission @  +110

Boser holds a massive experience advantage with 33 professional fights and has faced top tier competition like Ciryl Gane and Andrei Arlovski. While Saricam is a powerful striker he is making his UFC debut and it’s hard to know how that will affect him. Boser’s greatest asset in this matchup is his exceptional mobility and volume. He sets a pace that few heavyweights can maintain over three rounds. Unlike many in the division, Boser utilizes constant movement and a heavy leg kick game that is designed to sap the explosiveness out of power punchers like Saricam. Saricam has shown vulnerability in the past when fights go beyond the first round, whereas Boser has proven his durability and gas tank in numerous three round wars. Boser’s striking defense will be crucial in the opening minutes to avoid Saricam’s initial flurry and force a technical kickboxing match. As the rounds progress, Boser’s ability to “stick and move” should frustrate Saricam. I think the experience and conditioning of Boser is perfectly suited to neutralize Saricam. Boser should use his footwork to stay out of danger early on before taking over the fight with volume. Boser’s conditioning should be the deciding factor as he outworks Saricam late.

Play of the Fight:
Boser Moneyline @ +124

I went back and forth on this one because it really does feel like a true toss up, but I’m ultimately siding with Gokhan Saricam and his pressure to edge this out over three rounds. Tanner Boser brings the experience advantage with a 5-5 UFC run and has been in there with solid competition, but it’s hard to ignore that he looks past his best days and is coming back into the fold on short notice, which raises questions about where he’s at physically and mentally. Boser at his best is a durable, technical striker with good movement for a heavyweight, and if he can keep this fight at range and work behind his jab and low kicks, he can absolutely win minutes. The issue is that Saricam’s style is built to disrupt that rhythm – he pushes forward, applies constant pressure, and forces opponents into uncomfortable exchanges where fights can get messy. That kind of approach could give Boser problems, especially if he’s not fully dialed in after time away. Saricam’s path is to make this ugly, close distance, and keep Boser on the back foot for extended stretches, while Boser needs space and composure to be at his best. Over three rounds, I think that pressure can start to add up, especially if Boser’s durability isn’t quite what it used to be. That said, this fight feels volatile and very competitive, and I wouldn’t be surprised to see momentum swing back and forth depending on who is dictating the pace. Boser has the experience and technical edge, Saricam has the pressure and urgency, and that’s what makes this such a tricky matchup to call. In a close and unpredictable fight, I’ll lean Saricam to do just enough with forward pressure and activity to break Boser down and take a decision.

Play of the Fight:
Saricam Moneyline @ -148

Croden brings a grinding style centered on relentless pressure and an effective clinch game that can be exhausting for opponents. Croden excels in turning fights into exhausting grinds by forcing grappling exchanges and working for takedowns. While Zheleznyakova has the superior skills on the feet, she has struggled when forced to defend against the cage, an area where Croden’s strength and dirty boxing shine. Croden’s pace rarely drops, which could prove decisive if she can drag Zheleznyakova into a grueling war of attrition. The striking edge should favor Zheleznyakova but Croden’s ability to keep moving forward is exactly the kind of grit that breaks opponents. Croden’s ground-and-pound is also a legitimate threat. If she successfully grounds Zheleznyakova, she should dominate from the top position. As the fight enters the later rounds, Croden’s persistence will overwhelm a tiring Zheleznyakova. Her ability to neutralize the Russian’s lengthy strikes with a suffocating clinch game should earn her a gritty victory on home soil.

Play of the Fight:
Croden Moneyline @ -130

This is easily my favorite fight on the card and also one of the hardest to pick because it feels like a true clash of styles where both women can do serious damage. I keep going back and forth on it because Daria Zheleznyakova’s speed and technical striking really stand out – she’s sharp, quick, and can land clean shots in volume if she’s able to control the distance and keep things at her pace. But on the other side, Melissa Croden brings the kind of power and forward pressure that can completely change the dynamic of a fight, especially over three rounds. Croden is going to be the one marching forward, looking to land heavier shots and make this fight physical, and I think that’s where things get interesting because she has shown she can absorb damage and keep coming, which could become a factor if this turns into a war. If Croden wants to really take over, mixing in her grappling would be a huge key because it would slow Zheleznyakova down and force her into uncomfortable positions rather than letting her strike freely at range. Zheleznyakova likely has success early with her speed and cleaner technique, but the longer this fight goes, the more it feels like it could swing toward Croden as the pressure builds and the damage accumulates. I originally leaned Zheleznyakova because of her speed advantage, but I ended up flipping to Croden because of the hometown advantage in Canada and her ability to wear damage better and keep pushing forward when things get tough. This feels like a fight where both have moments, but Croden’s pressure, durability, and potential to mix in grappling give her more ways to take over late. I can see her either grinding out a tough decision or finding a late finish once the damage starts to add up.

Play of the Fight:
Croden Moneyline @ -130

Aldrich brings a wealth of Octagon experience into this fight having faced top-tier competition for nearly a decade. Horth is riding high on momentum following an impressive first round TKO victory over Tereza Bleda in December. While Aldrich lands slightly more volume Horth is the much more accurate striker and possesses the kind of power that can disrupt Aldrich’s rhythm. The grappling should favor the Horth. She is the more competent wrestler giving her a clear path to control the rounds if the striking battle gets tough. Aldrich has struggled against opponents who can match her pace and bully her physically. Horth has shown she can finish fights both with strikes and submissions, making her a more versatile threat than the decision reliant Aldrich. Horth’s power and grappling pressure should eventually take over as the fight goes on.

Play of the Fight:
Horth Moneyline @ -170

I’m siding with JJ Aldrich here because I think the experience and technical striking are being seriously undervalued in this matchup. Aldrich has been in there with a much higher level of competition and has consistently shown a clean, disciplined striking style that is built around fundamentals, accuracy, and smart decision making. She doesn’t get reckless, she manages distance well, and she knows how to win minutes over the course of a fight. On the other side, Jamey-Lyn Horth has been getting a lot of hype, especially off that KO win over Miranda Bleda, but context matters in that performance. Bleda was coming off serious health issues and did not look like herself, which makes that finish a little less convincing when projecting forward. Horth is tough and brings physicality, but I think she’s being a bit overrated in this spot compared to what she’s actually shown against healthy, high-level opposition. Aldrich’s path here is pretty clear – keep this fight at range, stay technical, and pick Horth apart with clean combinations while avoiding getting drawn into a brawl. If she sticks to that gameplan, I think she can control large portions of this fight with her striking alone. Horth will likely look to close distance and make this more physical, but Aldrich has the experience and composure to deal with that pressure and continue to land the cleaner shots. Over three rounds, I trust Aldrich to be more consistent, more efficient, and ultimately the better minute winner. This feels like a spot where the more proven fighter reminds people of her level.

Play of the Fight:
Aldrich Moneyline @ +142

Castaneda is the veteran here. A veteran with a massive six-inch reach advantage. Mark Vologdin enters the UFC after a hard fought decision loss on Dana White’s Contender Series. Vologdin is known for his relentless pace and high output, but he is small for the division and is too willing to go to war against bigger opponents. Castaneda’s path to victory lies in his superior defense and his ability to mix in takedowns. Vologdin will need to navigate the reach gap early and force scrambles if he wants the upset but the experience gap in the UFC often proves to be the deciding factor in fights like this. Vologdin will try to push the pace, but Castaneda should land the more impactful strikes throughout three rounds. His reach and experience should allow him to rack up enough points to secure the win on the judges’ scorecards.

Play of the Fight:
Casteneda Moneyline @ -148

I’m siding with John Castañeda here because I think his UFC experience and overall well-rounded game are going to be the difference in this matchup. Castañeda has already proven he can compete at this level against solid opposition, and that kind of experience matters a lot when facing someone still trying to find their footing. On the other side, Mark Vologdin is getting some hype despite coming off a loss, and while I do think he has potential to succeed in the UFC long term, this feels like a tough spot for him right now. He’s being asked to deal with a fighter who is comfortable in all phases and knows how to navigate the ups and downs of a UFC fight. Castañeda is the more polished and composed fighter, especially when it comes to mixing striking with grappling and making in-fight adjustments. Vologdin will likely have moments with his physicality and aggression, but I think he’s going to run into issues if he can’t consistently control where the fight takes place. Castañeda can strike at range, close distance into clinch work, and mix in takedowns to keep Vologdin guessing, which makes it difficult for a less experienced fighter to settle into any kind of rhythm. If Vologdin had a more gradual build against manageable competition, I think we could see his skillset develop more clearly, but this feels like a step too soon against someone as seasoned as Castañeda. Over three rounds, I trust Castañeda to be the more efficient minute winner and to capitalize on any mistakes that come from Vologdin pressing too hard.

Play of the Fight:
Casteneda Moneyline @ -148

Jamie “The Gremlin” Siraj enters his UFC debut as a massive favorite. He brings an elite grinding style and high level BJJ black belt skills to the Octagon. John Yannis is a more explosive athlete and holds an edge in pure striking speed and power. However, Yannis has been vulnerable to submissions in his career including a recent loss to Austin Bashi by rear-naked choke. Siraj will be looking to close the distance immediately, utilizing his clinch game to neutralize Yannis’s power and drag the fight into deep waters. Yannis is a possibility as an underdog if he can catch Siraj on the entry but Siraj has shown a high fight IQ and the ability to absorb damage to get the takedown. The grappling discrepancy here is simply too wide to ignore against an opponent who historically struggles when his back is taken. Yannis needs an instant knockout if he wants to win but I will be looking for Siraj to weather an early storm, initiate a scramble, and find a rear-naked choke before it’s over. 

Play of the Fight:
Jamie Siraj to Win By Submission or John Yannis to Win by KO @ -105

I’m siding with John Yannis here because I think the striking advantage is pretty clear, and I just wasn’t impressed with what I saw from Jamie Siraj on tape. Siraj is supposed to lean on his grappling, but there are too many red flags there for me – he gets reversed too easily, ends up in bad positions far too often, and doesn’t seem to have the control you’d expect from someone whose main path to victory is on the mat. Against a more composed or dangerous striker, that kind of sloppiness can get exposed quickly. Yannis is not some elite, well-rounded prospect by any means, but I do think he’s the better fighter in this matchup, especially on the feet. He throws with more confidence, has cleaner mechanics, and carries enough power to make opponents pay for mistakes. If Siraj can’t reliably secure and maintain top position, I don’t see how he wins this fight because standing at range or even in close exchanges should favor Yannis. Siraj’s path is to get this fight down early and actually hold position, but based on what I’ve seen, that’s a big question mark. Yannis just needs to stay composed, defend the initial grappling attempts, and make Siraj work for everything. The longer this stays standing or turns into scrambles, the more it favors Yannis, and I think he eventually capitalizes on one of those openings. This feels like a spot where defensive lapses and poor positioning catch up to Siraj. I see Yannis keeping it upright long enough to land something clean and put him away.

Play of the Fight:
Jamie Siraj to Win By Submission or John Yannis to Win by KO @ -105