Brothers at Odds

Clicking each fight will take you further down the page to each Brother’s analysis!

Randy Brown

Randy Brown has a massive physical presence at Welterweight, standing 6’3″ with a build that looks much thicker and stronger than the lanky Kevin Holland. This significant strength advantage will allow him to win the grueling clinch battles and control where the fight takes place. Brown is an expert at using his long limbs to fire off punches, knees and kicks that drain an opponent’s energy. While Holland is very unpredictable, Brown’s disciplined style focuses on accuracy and power unlike the flashy attacks we see from Holland. Randy’s ability to press opponents against the fence will be a major factor in neutralizing Holland’s movement. Unlike Holland, Randy Brown stays locked in and follows a strict game plan from start to finish. He has shown great defensive wrestling, which will prevent Holland from taking the fight to the floor and hunting for submissions. Brown’s jab is a significant weapon that will likely keep the shorter Holland from finding his rhythm. Because of his natural size, Brown’s heavy shots carry the kind of impact that can change the momentum of a round with just one shot. While Gabriel Bonfim had Brown in trouble with leg kicks in his last fight Kevin Holland shouldn’t present as much of a risk as far as leg kicks go. His style usually focuses more on boxing than technical kickboxing and Brown’s striking is sharp enough to exploit Holland’s habit of keeping his hands low. As I mentioned, Randy’s jab will be a key weapon in this fight, allowing him to use his reach to touch Holland while protecting himself. By staying disciplined and not chasing a finish too early, Brown can systematically break down Holland over three rounds. 

To be honest Kevin Holland is just too unpredictable and untrustworthy to pick in this spot. Only goofballs like my brother would pick goofball Kevin Holland here. Don’t follow his busted picks. This matchup has a “Rude Boy” Randy Brown victory written all over it. Robert needs to get good ASAP.

Kevin Holland

The pick’em of pick’ems right here! I think it is incredibly hard to determine who is going to come out on top here because Holland and Brown both have the potential to win via strikes, grappling, or decision. The volatility here is out of this world. However, my gut instinct was Kevin Holland before I watched the tape and I still came out in favor of Holland after watching the tape. Holland’s potential is always through the roof but he sometimes gets in his own way from a motivational standpoint.

I think this matchup with Brown is a great stylistic matchup for Holland because Brown is not used to fighting long, skilled strikers. Holland is going to have a clear advantage in length and range, and that is something that has historically given Brown problems. Brown is at his best when he can get into rhythm and pressure forward, but when he has to close distance on longer fighters, he tends to come in a bit upright and absorb shots on the way in. That is a dangerous habit to have against someone like Holland who is very comfortable fighting off the back foot and catching opponents as they enter.

Another thing that stands out when watching Brown is that he is extremely tough, but he gets hit clean more often than you would like. He relies on his durability and ability to push through damage, but that can be a risky approach in a fight this volatile. Holland is not the type of fighter you want to be taking clean shots from repeatedly because he is so good at capitalizing in the moment. Whether it is a straight shot, a counter, or even jumping on a submission if things get scrambly, Holland has a way of turning small openings into big moments.

I also think Holland’s grappling is a bit underrated in this matchup. Brown is capable on the ground, but he is not someone who consistently controls or dominates there. Holland does not need a ton of control time, he just needs a moment. If Brown gets a little too aggressive or overextends in a scramble, Holland is the type of fighter who can latch onto a submission or create a quick finishing sequence out of nowhere.

The biggest path to victory for Brown is to make this an ugly, grinding fight and force Holland into extended exchanges where discipline becomes a factor. But even that comes with risk. Brown tends to absorb a lot of damage in those types of fights, and against someone as long and unpredictable as Holland, that could come back to bite him over the course of 15 minutes.

I think Holland has the chance to finish Brown via strikes or submission, but the same possibility exists for Brown. This truly is a pick’em kind of fight but I will follow my instincts and ride with Kevin Holland! Just like I did in UFC 5, Holland is going to help me smash my brother Chris. We are taking the DUB home this week in the Brother’s Battle! I have some catching up to do and it starts with Holland.

Parlay:
Kelvin Gastelum Moneyline
AND
Jiri Prochazka vs. Carlos Ulberg Does Not Go To Decision
@ -135

I think this is a lock. Gastelum is my overall favorite on the card. I don’t think Luque has anything to threaten him with. Gastelum will control where the fight takes place and has an unbreakable chin. Plus Luque is moving up a weight class to middleweight and wasn’t the most durable fighter at welterweight to begin with. This has a Gastelum victory written all over it. I also cannot imagine a scenario where the main event makes it through all five rounds. Jiri thrives on aggression and doesn’t really care if he gets hit when blitzing opponents. Ulberg is so technically sound that he might catch Jiri moving in and end the fight early or Jiri will wade through danger and catch Ulberg with some type of unorthodox hook or spinning elbow. Either way someone is going down. -135 is fantastic odds for such a likely outcome. 

Double Chance Play:
Gastelum Decision OR Luque Submission
@ +105

I think Gastelum should be the lock of the card if he is coming into this fight with the proper focus and training! Luque just has not looked like his old self since the brain bleed and while he still looks serviceable, I do not see him beating a high-level competitor like Gastelum in a clean fight.

To me, this matchup really comes down to two outcomes: Gastelum decision or Luque submission. I do not see Gastelum finishing Luque, especially when Alvarez was not able to get him out of there in their last fight. At the same time, I do not see Luque knocking out Gastelum, who has never been knocked out, and I really do not think Luque wins a decision here either.

Gastelum has more ways to win the minutes. He can win this fight on the feet with his boxing and durability, or he can mix in his wrestling if he needs to. Luque’s path feels much narrower. If he is going to win, it likely comes from a grappling-heavy approach where he finds a submission in a scramble or catches something in a chaotic moment. We have seen Gastelum get submitted before, so it is definitely possible, but I just think more often than not this fight plays out with Gastelum controlling the pace and winning rounds.

Give me Gastelum by decision, with Luque submission as the only real upset path. At plus money, this is a solid play that covers both possibilities! If you want the extra juice, take Gastelum by decision straight up.

Loopy Godinez @ +124

There are actually a lot of potential underdogs on this card. I think Mederos, Ribovics, Hokit and Costa all have a good chance to win. But if I had to pick one it’s Godinez. Her opponent Suarez has just looked super unimpressive in her last two fights. She got completely outclassed by Weili Zhang and then barely survived a decision victory over Amanda Lemos. Suarez is also extremely one dimensional and is totally dependent on winning a decision with wrestling and top control. Godinez just has to do a little bit better than Lemos did at defending takedowns and creating scrambles. If Godinez can keep the pressure on Suarez she should be able to wear down her opponent’s gas tank by the end of round two. If Godinez can be more offensive than defensive we could really see Suarez in deep trouble come round three.

Patricio Pitbull @ +225

DAWG OF THE WEEK right here and I think the disrespect on Pitbull is crazy. I do not understand how he is this big of an underdog against an unproven, chinny customer like Pico. This is exactly the kind of spot I look for from a betting perspective. Everyone is on Pico, and I am more than happy to fade that. All of the value is on Pitbull and he is absolutely live to win as a crafty, experienced vet. Pitbull has been in there with high-level competition for years and people are acting like he is just going to get run over. That does not make sense to me. He may not finish everyone, but he still has 13 knockouts and clearly has the ability to capitalize when openings are there. Against someone like Pico, that matters.

I also think people are way too confident in Pico’s durability. We have seen him hurt and finished before, and that is not something you just ignore. Pitbull is the exact type of fighter who can take advantage of that. On the other side, I am not nearly as worried about Pitbull’s chin. Ige and Rodriguez could not finish him, which tells me his durability is still there.

Did Pico look sharp against Lerone Murphy? Sure, but it was only for part of the first round and he still lost. I am not going to overrate that. The public is all over Pico, the line reflects it, and I am going the other way. Give me Pitbull as the DAWG OF THE WEEK by KO or Decision.

I feel like this is the best main event we have had in a long time! Jiri Prochazka always brings the aggression and seems to get better as fights go on. Even when he does get hit it only seems to make him angry and even more dangerous. Jiri hates going to the judges’ scorecards and has never gone to a decision in his six years fighting in the UFC. He has a 6-2 record in the UFC with his only losses coming against the champ Alex Pereira. Jiri has a very unique striking style that can get wild but usually allows him to get the better of his opponents using angles and constant movement. However Pereira was able to slice right through Jiri with his elite kickboxing precision. It is this fact that leads me to pick Carlos Ulberg here. I think Ulberg will follow Pereira’s game plan and use his own sharp striking skills to hurt Prochazka. Like Pereira, Ulberg is content to wait for the right time to strike and when he does attack his strikes fire with laser beam speed and precision. His most recent knockout of Dominick Reyes was a perfect example of that as he flatlined Reyes with a deadly 1-2 combination down the middle. I really think Ulberg will have success using that same strategy against Prochazka. If Ulberg can stay disciplined and avoid a brawl with Prochazka his elite kickboxing should be strong enough to earn him a victory and the light heavyweight championship. Prochazka is a true champion and has the discipline and mindset to be the champ long term but I think Ulberg is just the perfect stylistic matchup for Jiri. In the end I just think Ulberg will be able to land the more effective strikes and neutralize Prochazka’s movement with precision. Look for Ulberg to take the belt with a KO in round 2 or 3.

Play of the Fight: Fight Does Not go to Decision

Prochazka is a wildman in the cage and he is an unpredictable force as a result. On the flip side, Ulberg is a crisp and precise striker who will look to counter the pressure of Jiri. In all honesty, I could not be more torn over this fight. My initial instinct is that Ulberg will be able to counter the pressure of Jiri throughout the fight because Ulberg’s counter striking is at an elite level. However, there are so many intangibles that I favor for Jiri as we get closer to the fight. Jiri is about to become a father for the first time, which I believe serves as a massive motivator for him. He also looks to be in the best shape of his life and has endlessly talked about his preparation for this fight. Going into the press conference, I had Ulberg as my pick. But I am flipping to Jiri for the plot! I saw something in Ulberg’s eyes that was too close to fear for my liking. Jiri inside the distance!

Play of the Fight: Fight Does Not go to Decision

Murzakanov comes into this fight undefeated with a 6-0 record in the UFC and 16-0 overall. He is as solid as a tree trunk and has finished his last three opponents in under 2 rounds. He can really finish fights at any moment with a variety of strikes. That being said, I think there is a glaring concern with Murzakanov’s cardio. Like I said he was able to finish his last three opponents in less than 10 minutes but prior to that he faded late in a decision victory over Dustin Jacoby. In that fight Murzakanov was able to hurt Jacoby as he does to most of his opponents but Jacoby was able to weather the storm and had Murzakanov on his heels in round 3. Murzakanov barely survived those last five minutes and would have been in serious danger if the fight went to a fourth round. While there have been some concerns about Paulo Costa’s cardio in the past he has proved the doubters wrong after going five hard rounds against Sean Strickland and Marvin Vettori. Strickland is a cardio machine and the fact that Costa was able to go toe to toe with him for 25 minutes shows significant improvement and really gives me confidence here. Costa is also very hard to put away and has only been stopped once by prime Israel Adesanya. While Murzakanov is definitely dangerous I don’t see him being able to stop Costa here. Costa is younger, faster and has the gas tank to give Murzakanov problems. I am picking Paulo Costa to hand Murzakanov his first career loss. 

Play of the Fight: Costa Moneyline

What the heck are you doing moving up a weight class, Paulo Costa? You never fight at light heavyweight and there are so many great matchups still down at Middleweight! He has also said that he wants to be ranked in each weight class – Middleweight and Light Heavyweight. I think this demonstrates a dangerous lack of focus from Paolo Costa and I think it might cost him his consciousness this Saturday night. Murzakanov is not the tallest guy, but he has been putting Light Heavyweights to sleep with ease. His crisp striking holds a lot of power, which is something that might make Costa realize that his move up to Light Heavyweight is a mistake. Murzakanov could be one of the first fighters to truly knock Costa out cold. The way he slept Rakic with a short right hand was clean and lethally fast. In that fight, he displayed excellent defensive wrestling and a cerebral calmness that is always good to see in a fighter. Costa certainly has a solid striking skillset but he does like to get punched in the face. He was touched a lot by Kopylov and being hit like that by Murzakanov could end the fight. Will the move up in weight potentially help Costa’s gas tank and power? Potentially. Will his kickboxing skillset and heavy leg kicks give certain fighters some problems? Potentially. But I do not think those gains will be as profound as what he will sacrifice against the power present at 205. I will take Murzakanov by KO or decision. I think Costa will feel power he has rarely felt before.

Play of the Fight: Murzkanov Moneyline

Josh Hokit is coming into UFC 327 with an unstoppable 8-0 record and has finished all 8 of his opponents. Curtis Blaydes has relied on a grinding style for years and has gone through many ups and downs. Hokit brings the explosive athleticism of a former NFL player and an All-American wrestler. This massive athletic gap will be glaring as Hokit’s superior speed and energy will make the 35-year-old Blaydes look old and slow. Blaydes has historically struggled against elite power punchers and Hokit’s five first round knockouts suggest he has the exact touch of death needed to put Blaydes down. Even if the fight hits the mat Hokit’s high level wrestling background will keep him safe. Unlike Blaydes, Hokit is a predator who is always looking to finish fights. The momentum is entirely on the side of the young prospect, who possesses the raw physical strength to overwhelm a gatekeeper like Blaydes. Curtis has taken significant damage throughout his career against the division’s best, and he is ground beef for someone like “The Incredible Hok”. Hokit’s violent finishing ability will completely overshadow Blaydes’s predictable wrestling heavy approach and earn him win and finishing number 9 for his career. Easy pick here. Hokit all the way.

Play of the Fight: Hokit by TKO

Curtis Blaydes has a very nice jab and solid inside boxing, but he does get hit and does not move the best on his back foot. He also has a 7 inch reach advantage, which will only serve him well if he can avoid the takedown of Hokit. But the wrestling of Hokit has appeared to be elite thus far. The way that Rizvan Kuniev – who helped usher Jailton Almeida out of the UFC with one of the more boring fights of all time – was able to damage Blaydes has me worried about how he is going to handle the athleticism and power of Hokit. The control and aggression of Hokit on the ground is a very real problem in the Heavyweight division. He is not trying to hug people like Jailton Almeida, he is trying to give them the nap of a lifetime. What a nice guy providing such a nice gift to the UFC roster. The same way the Freeman was covering up and eating shots is the same way that Blaydes could get finished – but Blaydes is still much more dangerous than Freeman. His jab is underrated but I think his footwork will be the doom of Blaydes in this fight. Hokit will put him out on his feet or take him down and pound him to oblivion. Hokit by KO/TKO is my prediction.

Play of the Fight: Hokit Moneyline or Hokit KO/TKO

This should be a really entertaining matchup. Johnny Walker has an unpredictable wild style that often leaves him wide open for a disciplined counter puncher like Reyes. Dominick Reyes has much cleaner and more technical striking that allows him to land punches with pinpoint accuracy. Unlike Walker, who can sometimes lose his focus, Reyes stays calm and follows a strict game plan. Johnny Walker’s chin has been a concern in the past and Reyes still carries the kind of one shot power that can end the night instantly. Reyes’ footwork will allow him to control the distance and avoid the chaotic attacks that Walker is known for. Although he’s had mixed results Reyes has faced the absolute best in the world. I think Reyes will be extremely focused going into this fight as he tries to rebound off a loss to title contender Carlos Ulberg. I expect Reyes to prove he’s at a different level than Walker too and I don’t think the judges will be needed here.

Play of the Fight: Reyes by KO

As with many of the fights on this card, I believe this fight is a close call. I initially favored Reyes because of the technical, powerful striking in his skillset. However, as I watched his tape more closely I realized that he relies on counter punching for his devastating finishes. I think the length of Walker and the unorthodox striking style is going to present Reyes some massive concerns. Both men have chins of absolute glass, so it is very likely that one of them gets knocked out by one solid punch. But I think that Walker will have more opportunities to get a devastating punch or kick to the target than Reyes will. If this was the old, pure chaos Johnny Walker of his youth… then I would favor Reyes. But I think Walker has leveled up his skillset and approach in a way that can get him the W. I will take Johnny Walker by brutal knockout.

Play of the Fight: Fight Ends by KO/TKO

Cub Swanson is finally sailing off into retirement at 42 years old with 44 fights under his belt. He’s the last active fighter from the WEC days. He’s seen a lot of ups and downs in his career but he brings a mountain of experience into this fight and still looks like he could compete for a couple more years. His recent knockout victory over Billy Quarantillo proves that he’s far from being washed up and still has the speed and power to finish fights. On the other hand, his opponent Nate Landwehr looks like father time is catching up to him. Landwehr has been stopped by strikes in his last two fights and is showing his age more than Swanson despite being five years younger. I don’t think Landwehr has anything left in his toolbox to give Swanson any concerns. Like I said even at 42 years old Cub Swanson is still a killer and has maintained his speed and power. I don’t see how anyone can pick Landwehr here. I think Swanson picks up one final win to cap off his memorable career and I think he does it within 3 rounds.

Play of the Fight: Swanson by KO

Swanson looks mighty impressive for a 42 year old man in a lighter UFC weight class. Generally, the first thing to go as fighters age is their speed. In Cub’s most recent fight, he did not look like he was missing any speed at all. Not only does Cub still have his speed, but he also has crisp boxing and solid footwork. I think these elements will serve him well against the plodding and powerful Nate Landwehr. Watching tape on Landwehr did leave me feeling a little concerned for the aging Cub Swanson because Landwehr is like the terminator: if you do not destroy him, he will march you down and keep coming forward. If Swanson’s speed and cardio hold up for the full 15 minutes, I think he will be fine against Landwehr. However, if Cub starts to slow down I think he can absolutely be finished by Landwehr. Either way I can see a finish happening in this fight and I do not see it going the distance in most scenarios. I will take Swanson by KO/TKO for a legendary win as he enters retirement.

Play of the Fight: Fight Does Not Go To Decision

Aaron Pico is still hunting for his first UFC win as he tries to redeem himself after a vicious knockout loss to Lerone Murphy in his UFC debut. Pico’s combination of elite wrestling and dangerous hands make him a tough obstacle for any opponent. While Patricio Pitbull is a legend of MMA he is now the older fighter facing a younger, faster, and more explosive opponent. If Pico can stay patient and pick his shots rather than rushing into a dangerous brawl he should come out on top here.  By staying disciplined, he can show the world that his past mistakes have only made him more dangerous. Pico’s wrestling gives him a safety net to take the fight to the ground if Pitbull catches him with counters on the feet. The fast pace Pico sets will likely wear down the veteran Pitbull as the fight moves on. I’m going to pick Pico here as I think he will learn from his previous loss and take advantage of the fact that Pitbull is nearing the end of his career and isn’t as lethal as he used to be.

Play of the Fight: Pico Moneyline

I think the disrespect on Pitbull is crazy. How is Pitbull this much of an underdog in a matchup against an unproven, chinny customer like Pico? I think all of the value is on Pitbull this week from a betting perspective and I absolutely think he is live to win as a crafty, experienced vet. While Pitbull does not knock out every opponent, he has 13 knockouts on his resume. I think he has a great chance to finish Pico or beat him on the scorecards via decision. Everyone and their mother seems to think that Pico is going to finish Pitbull – which could certainly happen but I do not view it as a high likelihood at all. I actually think Pitbull finishing Pico is a vastly higher likelihood because Pico has a glass chin. Ige and Rodriguez did not finish Pitbull, which leads me to believe that Pitbull’s durability is still pretty solid. Did Pico look pretty crisp against Lerone Murphy? Absolutely. But that only lasted for part of the first round and he should not be so highly rated based on a loss within 1 round against a fighter who is a decision merchant. I will fade public opinion and take Pitbull this week by KO or Decision.

Play of the Fight: Pitbull Moneyline

Esteban Ribovics has some of the most explosive and aggressive striking in the division. While Gamrot is a good wrestler he has a habit of being knocked down or hurt early in his fights. Ribovic’s aggressive style should allow him to capitalize on those moments of vulnerability and end the fight. He has shown massive improvements in his takedown defense and his background in jiu-jitsu makes him dangerous from the bottom. Ribovics thrives in high paced wars, having earned three consecutive “Fight of the Night” awards. Ribovics remains aggressive and dangerous even when he is being pressured. At 29 years old, he is entering his physical prime and carries the momentum of a fighter who is improving with every fight. If Ribovics can force just a few scrambles and keep the fight on the feet for any amount of time his superior power and volume will likely overwhelm the veteran over three rounds.

Play of the Fight: Ribovics Moneyline

Gamrot could be the play of the entire card. He is being massively undervalued based on a loss to the most elite grappler in UFC history, Charles Oliveira. We saw what that man just did to Max Holloway, it is to be expected at this point. I think Gamrot’s wrestling dominance is hard to come by in the Lightweight division – especially considering how he handled Ludovit Klein in May of 2025. Dominant wrestling and almost triple the significant strikes. Klein is a fighter I would put on a higher level than Ribovics and I absolutely believe that Klein would beat Ribovics as well. Ribovics has also never faced a wrestler of Gamrot’s skillset – which is saying something considering that he was taken down 11 times in his UFC debut by Loik Radzhabov. Who the heck is Loik Radzhabov? Exactly, case closed. I will be taking Gamrot by decision.

Play of the Fight: Gamrot Decision

This is a very intriguing matchup as we have an elite wrestler in Suarez going up against the very well rounded Loopy Godinez. My initial instinct was to pick Suarez to win by utilizing her top tier wrestling skills but after some research I’m not so sure anymore. Godinez comes from a family of wrestlers and one of her sisters actually competed in the Olympics so we know her training partners are top tier. She’s also very good in scrambles and can get back to her feet if she does get downed. On top of that Godinez is a cardio machine who will fight hard for all 15 minutes. On the other hand Suarez is pretty much a one trick pony with her wrestling. If she can’t hold opponents down for 15 minutes she doesn’t have a backup plan. Her striking is almost non-existent and her cardio is a major concern. Suarez slowed considerably late in her last fight against Amanda Lemos. While she controlled Lemos for most of the first two rounds Lemos did a decent job of defending takedowns and getting back to her feet and tagged Suarez hard at the end of round 3. Godinez just needs to do a little bit better than Lemos and Suarez will be in trouble. I expect Suarez to get Godinez down once or twice but Loopy will get back to her feet and put the pressure on Suarez. Great underdog opportunity with Godinez here. 

Play of the Fight: Godinez Moneyline

Suarez has only lost against the best of the best in her division, Zhang Weili. That is the only loss on her professional record. She has dominated fights with her wrestling and grappling skillset, which I think will serve her well in this fight. Loopy Godinez is a solid journeywoman in the UFC, but she generally loses to higher competition within her division. Virna Jandiroba took her down twice and dominated her in the fight. I absolutely believe a dominant wrestler like Suarez can do the same. I will take Suarez by decision.

Play of the Fight: Suarez Moneyline

Mederos looks like a more technical and dangerous striker compared to Padilla who can be a little stiff in the cage. Mederos possesses a significant reach advantage, which he can use to safely pierce through Padilla’s defense. While Padilla missed weight and may try to use his extra size to bully Mederos, MarQuel does have solid takedown defense. Padilla lacks the explosive movement needed to catch a sharp kickboxer like Mederos. If Mederos can maintain the center of the Octagon he should be able to pick apart Padilla’s tight defense with his superior hand speed and accuracy. Padilla’s habit of “waiting” for a perfect opportunity often leads to him being outworked by his opponents. Padilla’s tightness in the pocket makes him vulnerable to the quick straight punches in Mederos’ arsenal. Mederos can use those tools to break down his opponent’s durability over three rounds. If Mederos can force Padilla into a striking battle he should come out on top. 

Play of the Fight: Mederos Moneyline

Mederos vs Padilla could be a dirty war of a fight! I think Mederos likes to point fight in a clean, technical manner. He does not like things to get too messy or chaotic because he does not thrive in those situations. You know who does thrive in those situations? My man TACOOOOOO PADILLA! I think Chris Padilla is going to make things messy and thrive in clinching situations. Especially with a reach advantage for Padilla, I think it will be very difficult for Mederos to keep the fight in a comfortable spot for him. While Padilla is generally a finisher, I think he will win a decision similar to his fight with Jai Herbert. The great risk to Padilla are the leg kicks of Mederos, which are incredibly solid and dangerous. But I truly believe that Padilla will make him pay for leg kicks with forward pressure. I will take Padilla here, most likely by decision or a late TKO due to the faltering cardio of Mederos.

Play of the Fight: Padilla Moneyline

Kelvin Gastelum might be my pick of the week. He enters this matchup as a significant favorite and rightfully so. His superior wrestling background and natural strength at middleweight should allow him to dictate where this fight takes place. Gastelum has faced absolutely elite competition and his unbreakable chin makes him nearly impossible to put away. That spells trouble for Vicente Luque as he is heavily dependent on finishing the fight in order to win. Luque isn’t really the type to outpoint his opponents for three rounds. His striking and his submissions are both dangerous but he will have a very difficult time finishing a durable veteran like Gastelum. Moving up from welterweight, Luque may find that his power isn’t as effective at middleweight, especially against a brick wall like Gastelum. If the fight enters round three Gastelum’s experience in deep waters should give him an advantage. Overall, Gastelum’s powerful hands, granite chin and ability to control where the fight takes place should earn him an easy victory.

Play of the Fight: Gastelum Moneyline

I think Gastelum should be the lock of the card if he is coming into this fight with the proper focus and training! Luque has not looked like his old self since he suffered a brain bleed earlier in his career. He looks serviceable but I do not believe he beats a high level competitor like Gastelum. If he does, he likely has to utilize a grappling heavy approach. I see two likely outcomes in this fight: Gastelum decision or Luque submission. I do not foresee Gastelum finishing Luque when Alvarez was not able to finish him in their last fight. I also do not see Luque knocking Gastelum out (who has never been knocked out) and I truly do not believe Luque wins a decision here either. Gastelum can win on the feet or take it to the ground with his wrestling. Luque’s only chance, in my opinion, is to catch Gastelum in a crazy submission. We have seen Gastelum submitted before and it is a possibility. But more often than not, I think we see a Gastelum decision here!

Play of the Fight: Double Chance – Gastelum Decision OR Luque Submission

Charles Radtke is coming in off a dominant submission win over Daniel Frunza. Radtke was able to land his lightning fast left hook early on before taking the fight to the ground and controlling Frunza for the better part of three rounds. Radtke was able to lock in a rear-naked choke just before the final turn. Radtke looked a level above Frunza. His fight prior to that was quite the opposite. Mike Malott was able to put heavy hands on Radtke and finish him early in the second round. His opponent Francisco Prado is desperate for a win as he is suffering from a three fight losing streak. He did not look very impressive in his last fight against Nikolay Veretennikov and was hurt badly in round one. Prado is not really elite in any aspect of MMA and his chances of winning greatly diminish as fights go on. He’s lost every decision he’s been to and doesn’t have the skills to outpoint Radtke for three rounds. I think Radtke uses his quick left hand and powerful takedowns to secure himself another victory as Prado goes back to the drawing board. 

Play of the Fight: Radtke Moneyline

Chales “Chuck Buffalo” Radtke is going to put a veteran clinic on the inexperienced Prado. I see potential in Prado but I also see a level of rawness that should probably have him outside of the UFC. I would love to see him go to another professional division, polish up his skillset against some garbage can fighters, and then make a return to the UFC. But I truly believe the well-rounded skillset of Radtke is going to be a major issue for Prado in this fight. I think Radtke has an advantage no matter where this fight takes place – on the feet or the mat. I will take Radtke in this one with a fair level of confidence. I will retract my statement that Prado needs to leave the UFC if he finishes Chuck Buffalo in spectacular fashion.

Play of the Fight: Radtke Moneyline