Brothers at Odds

Clicking each fight will take you further down the page to each Brother’s analysis!

Israel Adesanya vs Joe Pyfer
Alexa Grasso vs Maycee Barber
Michael Chiesa vs Niko Price
Julian Erosa vs Lerryan Douglas
Mansur Abdul-Malik vs Yousri Belgaroui
Terrance McKinney vs Kyle Nelson
Ignacio Bahamondes vs Tofiq Musayev
Chase Hooper vs Lance Gibson Jr.
Marcin Tybura vs Tyrell Fortune
Casey O’Neill vs Gabriella Fernandes
Navajo Stirling vs Bruno Lopes
Ricky Simón vs Adrian Yanez
Alexia Thainara vs Bruna Brasil

Joe Pyfer

Great main event here between the former champ Adesanya and the surging up and comer Joe Pyfer. Pyfer comes in riding a 3 fight win streak and is 6-1 since entering the UFC. In his most recent fight Pyfer showed off his entire skill set. He made a small error early and ended up on his back but fought smart and was able to turn things around before the end of the first round. In the second round Pyfer wasted no time dropping his opponent with a powerful hook and then showed off his black belt jiu-jitsu skills by closing things out with a face crank. His only UFC loss was to Jack Hermansson a couple years ago where he gassed out in the middle of a 5 round fight. He also slowed a bit in the last round of his fight against Kelvin Gastelum so his cardio is a bit of a concern. 

On the other hand we have The Last Stylebender Israel Adesanya who at this point is closer to retirement than he is to his days as champion. Izzy is unfortunately on a three fight losing streak and has lost four of his last five. Although he has been on the losing end recently all of these fights were against elite competition (Alex Pereira, Strickland, DDP and Imavov). It’s that last fight against Imavov that has me concerned for Izzy here. 

I know I mentioned before that Pyfer’s cardio is a concern, but I honestly don’t think it’s going to make much of a difference here. Pyfer is just too well rounded and powerful for Adesanya at this point. Pyfer has knockout power in both of his hands and the grappling skills to take Izzy down and submit him. If we go back five or six years ago, Adesanya wins this fight.  But at this point in his career, especially coming off the bad TKO loss to Imavov, I don’t think he survives more than three rounds with Pyfer. The timing of this fight is perfect for Pyfer and terrible for Izzy. It’s Joe Pyfer all the way for me. 
My Play is Pyfer by TKO or submission 

Israel Adesanya

This is one of those matchups where power meets precision, and I’m siding with precision all day long. Israel Adesanya is stepping in against a dangerous, rising powerhouse in Joe Pyfer, but this feels like a classic case of levels. Pyfer is legit to be sure – with heavy hands, real finishing ability, and some ability to mix in takedowns when he needs to, but this is a completely different fight than anything he’s seen so far. The jump in competition here is massive, and that matters in a fight like this. Especially when you consider how Pyfer looked against Jack Hermansson – who has been getting knocked out by anyone with a pulse. Why didn’t Bodybagz Pyfer put him in a body bag? The same reason he is taking a fat L Saturday night. Before I lay out Adesanya’s path to victory, I must commend Pyfer for finding our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ. He has talked a lot about becoming a family man and putting his wife, future children, and God above all. He could not be more on point with such a revelation and I appreciate his advocacy for importance of spreading God’s love everywhere we go in life. Your power is infinite, Jesus! Back to the breakdown…

Adesanya’s biggest advantages are the same things that have always separated him: elite footwork, distance control, and high-level striking IQ over five rounds. He doesn’t just strike effectively, he manages range at an elite level, and against someone like Pyfer who relies on explosiveness and power, that becomes a huge problem as the fight extends. If Pyfer can’t consistently close distance without taking damage or having to chase Izzy around the cage, he’s going to be swinging at air and getting picked apart. The wrestling angle is there, but I’m not sold on it being a deciding factor. Adesanya’s takedown defense has been tested against much higher-level grapplers, and he’s proven he can stay upright or survive and reset when needed.

Where this fight really separates is in the later rounds. Pyfer is dangerous early – no question -but Adesanya has built his career on breaking fighters over time. The pace, the reads, the feints: it all starts to stack up. If this fight gets into rounds three, four, and five, that’s where Izzy takes control and pulls away. This is Pyfer’s toughest test by far, and while he has the tools to make things interesting early, I don’t think he has the experience or five-round depth to keep up with someone like Adesanya.

My pick is Adesanya by late TKO in rounds four or five, or a clear decision win. About to go up 3-1 in Brother’s Battles! LONGTIME everyone!

Gabriella Fernandes @ -105

I really like Gabriella Fernandes to win here. Her opponent Casey O’Neill is a gritty veteran but Fernandes has the ability to finish this fight. I think O’Neill’s only chance to win is by a close decision. On the other hand Fernandes can win this fight with damage on the feet or by using her strength advantage to take her opponent down and lock up a submission. The odds have this fight as almost a straight “pick-em” with Fernandes at -105 at the moment. I think those are pretty good odds considering her recent success and the fact that O’Neill is coming off a long lay off and will likely have to deal with ring rust. Gabriella Fernandes is my ultimate pick of the week.

Bonus 4-Pick Parlay!

Alexia Thainara, Navajo Stirling and Michael Chiesa to win plus McKinney vs Nelson not to go to decision. Parlay odds come out to -175. These are all the biggest favorites on the card and I really think they will all hit. None of them are worth betting on their own just because of value but if you put them all together -175 is not bad at all. I’ll be massively surprised if any of them don’t come through. I try my best to stay away from parlays but I think this one is solid!

Tyrell Fortune @ -135

I’m locking in Tyrell Fortune as my Pick of the Week. This is a matchup where I think the physical advantages are just too much to ignore. Fortune is going to be faster, more explosive, and more powerful on the feet, especially against a 40-year-old Marcin Tybura who has shown clear signs of slowing down. If this stays standing for any meaningful amount of time, Fortune should have a major edge. I absolutely believe he can put Tybura to sleep.

The heavyweight division is wide open right now, and this feels like the kind of fight where a new name can really establish themselves. If Fortune handles this the way I expect, it won’t just be a win: it will be a dominant statement to all heavyweights. I think he passes this test with ease and starts positioning himself as a real threat in the division moving forward.

Lance Gibson Jr @ +245

Gibson is an All-American wrestler who will use all his skills to keep this fight standing against the jiu-jitsu ace Chase Hooper. I think Hooper is being way overvalued here. It’s going to be very tough for Hooper to take Gibson to the ground where he is at his best. If Gibson can keep this fight standing, I think he can outpoint Hooper on the feet. Hooper has had a lot of success in the UFC but he’s got a long way to go to develop the rest of his skills outside of his grappling. Gibson might not be a killer in the standup game but he has more power than Hooper and the defensive wrestling to back it up. At +245 I feel compelled to support Gibson here.

Honorable mention: Kyle Nelson @ +154

As I’ve stated before this fight between Kyle Nelson and Terrence McKinney is definitely not going to make it to the judges scorecards. I doubt it even makes it to round three. McKinney is so incredibly aggressive. He comes to kill or be killed. While it is massively entertaining, it doesn’t always work out in his favor. I am picking McKinney to win this fight, but I think it’s worth placing a small hedge on Nelson here as he has definitely shown the ability to finish fights with his hands. McKinney’s aggression has made him vulnerable in the past and Nelson definitely has the power to take advantage of that. 

Julian Erosa @ +280

Have you heard? Erosa’s got the juice! He’s got juice on his line this week and plenty of juice inside the cage! Is his chin a concern? Absolutely! But I can promise you that he is a fighter who will fight until he can fight no more. His recent fight against Melquizael Costa was impressive simply because he managed to survive Costa’s onslaught. Costa has been knocking everyone out and did not manage to finish Erosa – who the public seems to believe is a chinny mister. I will trust in his chin one more time against the UFC newcomer with power, Lerryan Douglas. Douglas seems one dimensional to me, even though he is very effective in that dimension! He throws a lot of tight hooks and leg kicks. As long as Erosa can avoid those hooks, I see multiple paths to victory for him. War Erosa, he’s got the juice!

Honorable mentions:
Kyle Nelson @ +154, Lance Gibson Jr @ +245, & Yousri Belgaroui +110

I believe all of these DAWGS are extremely live on this card. While I really want to favor Nelson against McKinney with confidence, the fight is so volatile overall. As a result, it is DAWG or pass! War Nelson! My brother Chris brought me to the DAWG side of Lance Gibson Jr. I see the light of his potential and how overrated Chase Hooper actually is to be listed as such a favorite. Gibson Jr. has a superior striking skillset and a very solid chance to take home the W! I have high levels of confidence in the striking skillset of Belgaroui against an explosive athletic specimin like Abdul-Malik. I think Belgaroui begins to pick apart Abdul-Malik as the fight goes on.

The co-main event is a rematch from 2021 where Grasso won a very close decision. In that fight Grasso showed all of her usual skills. Crisp striking and good defensive grappling. Barber was her usual self as well putting the pressure on Grasso and initiating clinches and takedowns. Barber tried to rally a comeback in round 3 but Grasso won the fight by out striking Barber overall. I think we are going to see a similar result again. Maycee Barber is riding a seven fight win streak with her most recent loss being to Grasso. Alexa Grasso is on a two fight skid but only lost to the highest level of competition in top contender Natalia Silva and the powerful champion Valentina Shevchenko. Silva beat Grasso with first class counter-striking and footwork. Shevchenko finally beat Grasso on her third try with elite wrestling and top control. In my opinion, Barber does not possess the skills of Grasso’s previous opponents. She doesn’t have the striking of Silva or the championship level grappling of Shevchenko. Therefore I see no reason why this rematch will not be a copy of the first. Both are very much the same fighter they were back then. Their strategies will be the same. Grasso will try to force Barber into a boxing match. Barber will try to pressure and clinch and take Grasso down. I think this is going to be a bounce back win for Grasso with her speedy hands once again carrying her to victory. Grasso has the skills to neutralize Barber’s pressure and land strikes of her own. The pick is Grasso by decision again.

Play of the Fight: Grasso Moneyline

This rematch is an interesting clash of pressure versus precision, and while Maycee Barber brings a relentless forward style that can absolutely make fights ugly, I don’t have the highest level of confidence in her ability to consistently create real damage at the elite level. On the other side, Alexa Grasso is the cleaner, more technical boxer, and that difference in striking quality stands out the more you break this matchup down. Grasso is sharp, composed, and far more efficient with her offense.

I actually think her performance against Natalia Silva gets overlooked a bit. Yes, she struggled to consistently land, but Silva has some of the best footwork we’ve ever seen in women’s MMA, and that’s not something Barber brings into this fight. What stood out more to me was Grasso’s mentality and grit – she kept pressing forward, stayed composed, and was clearly determined to win until the final bell. That’s what you want to see. She’s still in her prime, still durable, and still one of the best strikers in the division.

The experience gap here is real too. Grasso has consistently fought higher-level competition and has been in big moments, while Barber is still trying to prove she belongs at the highest level of the sport. On top of that, there are some legitimate concerns surrounding Barber’s situation. When a fighter is openly talking about potentially stepping away for health reasons, and we’ve already seen her pull out of a main event against Erin Blanchfield due to those same concerns, that’s not something you can just ignore heading into a fight like this.

Barber’s pressure could make moments competitive, but I trust Grasso’s skillset far more. She’s the more polished striker, the more proven fighter, and in my opinion, the one more likely to land meaningful, damaging shots throughout the fight. I will take Grasso at DAWG odds all day long because it is ultimately a pretty close fight.

Play of the Fight: Grasso Moneyline

Chiesa is riding a three-fight win streak showing he still has the gas tank to grind out wins. Price is stepping in on short notice after losing three in a row which will cost him in a grinding grappling match against Chiesa. Price’s best chance of victory will be trying to take Chiesa out as soon as possible but I expect Chiesa to try and pressure Price with clinches and takedown attempts to wear him down. I think Chiesa will be successful in doing so. This is expected to be Chiesa’s retirement fight so you know he’s coming into this fully prepared unlike Niko Price who didn’t have the benefit of a full camp. The pick is Chiesa to finish Price in round 2.

Play of the Fight: Chiesa by TKO or Submission

This feels like an all-or-nothing retirement fight, and I’m siding with Michael Chiesa to get it done. He comes in with the hometown advantage, a full training camp, and a clear edge in grappling, which is the biggest factor here. Niko Price is always dangerous and unpredictable, but taking this fight on short notice – especially after a brutal loss just a month ago – puts him in a tough spot.

I don’t see this fight going the distance with both guys likely hunting a finish in what could be their final fight. If Chiesa commits to his grappling, he should be able to control where this fight takes place and exploit Price’s weaknesses on the ground. I trust him to find that opening and capitalize.

Play of the Fight: Chiesa by TKO or Submission

This should be a really fun fight. Both guys have a reputation for violence and they both have the potential to finish fights at any moment. Erosa is coming off a very competitive and entertaining fight against the surging Melquizael Costa. He lost a decision but really challenged Costa with pressure. Prior to that fight he won three fights in a row and put all three opponents away inside the distance. Erosa uses his long limbs effectively and his striking and in his grappling game where he’s able to lock up chokes and body locks with ease. The concern with Erosa is that he leaves himself open to getting hit and it’s already cost him big in the past in TKO losses to Fernando Padilla and Alex Caceres. He got cracked by Costa a few times as well. Because of that I’m going with Lerryan Douglas. Douglas has destructive power in his hands. His recent win on the Contender Series was absolutely brutal. He’s actually on a five fight win streak with all five ending in highlight reel knockouts. He might eat a few shots while he waits for his moment to strike but when he does attack he shuts his opponents down. I think we see Douglas catch Erosa with one of his powerful hook and that’s going to be it.

Play of the Fight:
Douglas by TKO 

Have you heard? Erosa’s got the juice! He’s got juice on his line this week and plenty of juice inside the cage! Is his chin a concern? Absolutely! But I can promise you that he is a fighter who will fight until he can fight no more. His recent fight against Melquizael Costa was impressive simply because he managed to survive Costa’s onslaught. Costa has been knocking everyone out and did not manage to finish Erosa – who the public seems to believe is a chinny mister. I will trust in his chin one more time against the UFC newcomer with power, Lerryan Douglas. Douglas seems one dimensional to me, even though he is very effective in that dimension! He throws a lot of tight hooks and leg kicks. As long as Erosa can avoid those hooks, I see multiple paths to victory for him. War Erosa, he’s got the juice!

Play of the Fight:
Erosa Moneyline

This is another great matchup between two very tough fighters with high potential. Abdul-Malik has a perfect 9-0 record and has finished all nine opponents inside the distance. He is powerful in every possible way. His hands stop opponents in their tracks. He uses his strength effectively in the ground game to control opponents and get back to his feet when needed. He’s not afraid to attack with submission attempts either. Belgaroui is a teammate of Alex Pereira and has a similar fighting style. He has a long frame like Pereira and uses his reach well. His last two fights were TKO victories in round 3 showing that he has the grit and determination to grind out a win. My concern with Belgaroui here is that he’s a bit slow. He’s not quite as smooth and sharp as Alex Pereira. Abdul-Malik is the opposite. He is fast and aggressive and causes destruction when he decides to attack. This is a very difficult fight to pick but I’m going with Abdul-Malik based on speed. 

Play of the Fight:
Abdul-Malik Moneyline

This matchup comes down to whether Mansur Abdul-Malik can impose his grappling, and I’m not convinced he will against Yousri Belgaroui. Belgaroui’s takedown defense is the key here, and if he’s able to keep this fight standing, I think the striking gap becomes very clear. He’s the more polished, dangerous striker with the kind of experience and composure that can really break someone down over time.

Abdul-Malik is still undefeated, but this feels like a step up where that record gets tested in a real way. If Belgaroui stuffs the early attempts and forces extended striking exchanges, I see him taking over as the fight goes on – landing the cleaner shots, building damage, and pulling ahead clearly on the feet. This feels like a fight where Belgaroui either wins a technical decision or finds an attritional TKO late, wearing Abdul-Malik down by round three.

Play of the Fight:
Belgaroui Moneyline

This card really is full of bangers! Terrance McKinney only knows chaos. In 25 professional fights he has never gone to a decision. Not once! He’s only seen the third round one time in his career and the last time a McKinney fight made it out of round one was seven fights ago in July of 2023. Win or lose “T.Wrecks” fights do not go to the judges. He’s coming off an epic back and forth brawl against Chris Duncan where he had Duncan hurt almost immediately until getting clipped himself and then submitted. His opponent Kyle Nelson is coming off a bizarre unanimous decision victory over Matt Frevola. Nelson appeared to stop Frevola with a TKO in round one but the fight was somehow allowed to continue. Nelson is an effective grappler with power in his hands. He’s not quite as aggressive as McKinney but who is? This is another difficult matchup to call but I’m going with McKinney to get back in the win column. Except him to pressure Nelson immediately and use his speed advantage. I don’t think this fight will see round 2.

Play of the Fight:
Fight Will Not Start Round 2

This is pure chaos! There is no other way to put it. Terrance McKinney is one of the most explosive, dangerous fighters in the division early in a fight, and he can find a finish from anywhere in the first five minutes. But Kyle Nelson brings a different kind of threat at this point in his career. He’s proven he can extend fights, stay composed, and capitalize when things get wild. This fight is highly volatile, and either guy can walk away with the win at any moment.

I don’t see this one going the distance at all. McKinney is at his most dangerous in round one, but if this fight stretches even slightly, Nelson’s chances skyrocket. He’s shown he can survive chaos and turn it back on his opponent, and that’s why I’m leaning his way here. In a pure pick with dogs odds, I’ll take Nelson to weather the early danger and find a finish of his own.

Play of the Fight:
Nelson Moneyline

Tofiq Musayev is trying to bounce back after a loss in his UFC debut to the rising Myktybek Orolbai. He has enough power in his hands to put opponents down and has had a lot of success doing that outside of the UFC. However he has shown vulnerability to getting finished himself with 4 of his 6 losses coming by submission. Bahamondes is no slouch on the ground. His recent triangle choke submission win over Jalin Turner was most impressive. Bahamondes long limbs help him lock up chokes and he does a good job using his reach to his advantage on the feet with straight punches and kicks. I think Bahamondes technical ground skills and length will be the difference here.

Play of the Fight:
Bahamondes Moneyline

I’m leaning toward Ignacio Bahamondes in this matchup, mainly because of his size, length, and overall threat at range. Tofiq Musayev is a dangerous, proven striker with real power, but I think Bahamondes has shown he can take a shot and keep his composure. His performance against Manuel Torres was a big statement, and I honestly view that as a more impressive and dangerous test than what Musayev currently brings.

Musayev absolutely has the skillset to make this competitive, especially if he can close distance and turn it into a firefight, but I question whether he’s still at his peak. If this were Musayev closer to his prime, I’d have a lot more hesitation here and might even lean his way. But as it stands, Bahamondes feels like the tougher out – he is longer, durable, and more difficult to deal with over the course of a fight.

Play of the Fight:
Bahamondes Moneyline

Chase Hooper is an elite jiu-jitsu fighter. Half of his UFC wins have come by a variety of submissions. He has put opponents away with heel hooks, brabo chokes, armbars and the old reliable rear naked choke. I think it’s pretty fair to say Lance Gibson Jr. is going to do everything he can to keep this fight standing. Gibson has an All-American wrestling background and is trained by his father Lance Gibson Sr. who competed in the UFC back in 2000. While Hooper is a master on the ground I think he’s going to have trouble taking Gibson down. This fight should end up being a striking battle and that should favor Gibson enough for him to pull off a win. I fear Hooper has reached his ceiling in MMA and is completely reliant on winning fights by submission. If Gibson uses his wrestling credentials to deny takedowns and pressure Hooper with strikes he will come out on top.

Play of the Fight:
Gibson Jr. Moneyline

Chris really made me pick flip on this one. I was a Chase Hoopster until I took a closer look at the tape. Hooper’s striking is abysmal and sloppy. Yes, it continues to improve. But it has not improved enough to even call it serviceable. Hooper has elite BJJ, but I also doubt whether his wrestling is solid enough to get the fight to the ground. Gibson Jr., on the other hand, took his UFC debut on short notice against Bobby Green (who has been putting fools to SLEEP!) Gibson Jr. struggled to find Bobby Green on the feet, but that is a common problem for UFC fighters facing Green. Lance Jr. looked like he had solid, servicable striking that could potentially put Hooper to sleep. I think a Gibson Jr. decision or TKO is very possible as long as he does not engage in grappling at all.

Play of the Fight:
Gibson Jr. Moneyline

Tyrell Fortune is making his UFC debut at 35 years old and is up against long time veteran Marcin Tybura. Fortune is an elite wrestler with multiple championships at the highest levels. This fight depends on whether Tybura can survive the initial storm and drag Fortune into deep water where his veteran experience matters. Fortune’s explosive athleticism and wrestling background should cancel out Tybura’s grappling game and keep the fight standing. While Tybura has 10 years of UFC experience he is now 40 years old and is facing a younger and faster opponent. I think Fortune’s wrestling skills make the difference here as he will be able to pressure Tybura with strikes knowing he can stop any takedown attempts. I’m picking Fortune to use his superior athleticism to put Tybura away with strikes inside the distance.

Play of the Fight:
Fortune by TKO

I’m siding with Tyrell Fortune in this matchup. He’s the younger, more athletic fighter with a dangerous striking skillset that can absolutely put someone out, and that’s a big concern for Marcin Tybura at this stage of his career. Tybura is a solid, experienced heavyweight, but at 40 years old he’s clearly on the decline, and he’s never really been elite in any one area. He is more well-rounded than anything else.

Tybura’s best path is to get this fight to the ground, stay on top, and drain Fortune over time, because his top control grappling is still his strongest asset. But I think that’s easier said than done here. Fortune’s wrestling and athleticism should make those entries difficult, and if this stays on the feet, his speed and power could be a massive problem; not just for Tybura, but for a heavyweight division that isn’t the deepest right now. Fortune going to make us a FORTUNE!

Play of the Fight:
Fortune Moneyline

Fernandes enters the cage riding a three fight winning streak. Her win over Wang Cong was especially impressive. She dropped Wang Cong with a head kick and then followed up with nasty ground control and finishing with a rear naked choke. Fernandes has also shown improved takedown defense. Ring rust is a legitimate concern for O’Neill. Her last fight was a decision victory over Luana Santos. Fernandes has been an active fighter with two recent performance bonuses. O’Neill needs to find early success in this fight and put the pressure on Santos to have a chance. There’s a chance O’Neill could win this in a decision just pressuring Fernandes around the cage but I’m actually picking Fernandes here as I think she has an opportunity to finish this fight whenever it takes place. Fernandes’ strength advantage and recent activity will be the difference here.

Play of the Fight:
Fernandes by TKO or Submission

I’m taking Casey O’Neill here, but with a lower level of confidence. She’s coming off a long layoff, but I still believe in her pressure style and her ability to make real improvements as she gets closer to her prime. Gabriella Fernandes brings legitimate power, and that’s something to watch early – she could absolutely make this fight dangerous in the opening exchanges.

That said, I trust O’Neill’s pace, durability, and overall game more as the fight goes on. If she can push a consistent pace and avoid getting caught clean early, I think she can start to take over with her pressure and more technical striking. Over time, that should be enough to separate her and control the fight.

Play of the Fight:
O’Neill Moneyline

Stirling is an undefeated, massive kickboxer who will try to use his reach to give Lopes problems. Lopes is a gritty veteran who will likely try to turn this into a grind. Lopes isn’t afraid to keep shooting for takedowns all fight. Stirling’s takedown defense is the key here. If Navajo stays mobile and utilizes his high volume, Lopes will struggle to close the gap. Lopes has lost to skilled strikers in the past and I think he’s going to struggle against Stirling as well. Stirling likely keeps his perfect record intact by shutting down the pressure and picking his shots safely.

Play of the Fight: Stirling Moneyline

I’m siding with Navajo Stirling in this matchup. He should have a clear advantage in both striking and speed, and that’s going to be a major problem for Bruno Lopes. Stirling has built a bit of a reputation as a decision machine, but he can absolutely get a highlight reel KO against Lopes here. Stirling is sharp, fast, and able to control striking on the feet.

This feels like the kind of fight where Stirling gets the highlight reel. If Stirling is able to dictate the pace and keep it standing, the gap in speed and striking should show quickly. Lopes could struggle to deal with that level of movement and precision, and that opens the door for Stirling to find something big.

Play of the Fight: Stirling KO or Decision

While Simon is a solid wrestler Yanez has very good takedown defense that makes him a nightmare for anyone trying to force a grappling match. Yanez is a very good boxer who might be able to take advantage of Simon on the feet. We just saw Raoni Barcelos beat Simon by neutralizing his wrestling and out pointing him on the feet, providing the perfect blueprint for Yanez to follow. If Yanez can keep his back off the fence Simon is going to have to deal with a much faster, more technical striker as the fight goes on. Yanez also has that one shot power that can end the night instantly if Simon gets sloppy while diving in for a shot. I expect Yanez to keep the fight standing, use his superior footwork to stay out of trouble, and pick Simon apart for fifteen minutes.

Play of the Fight:
Yanez Moneyline

I’m backing Ricky Simón in this matchup because I think he has the more complete MMA skillset. Adrian Yanez is the cleaner, more technical boxer, but Simón brings a level of wrestling and overall versatility that can really disrupt that striking rhythm. On top of that, his power is a bit underrated. Simon is not just a grinder, he can make opponents respect him on the feet too.

If Simón can mix in his wrestling, control positioning, and keep Yanez from settling into a pure boxing match, I think he can consistently win minutes throughout the fight. Yanez will have moments, especially in exchanges, but over the course of the fight I trust Simón’s ability to dictate where things take place and edge rounds.

Play of the Fight:
Simón Moneyline

Thainara is 13-1 in her career but comes into this fight looking for revenge as her only loss came against Brasil way back in 2019. Brasil won that fight with a standing guillotine choke in round 3. Their recent matches against Molly McCann show how much has changed since then. Thainara retired McCann with a clinical first round choke in 2025, while Brasil had to survive a gritty three round war to edge out a decision against her in 2024. Since their first meeting, Thainara has evolved into an effective wrestler and is riding an 11 fight win streak. Brasil is a good striker but she’s coming into this fight on short notice.Thainara’s path to victory is clear. Ground Brasil early and hunt for the finish to erase that old loss. Brasil’s only real hope is to catch another lucky submission if Thainara gets too aggressive. That being said I think we shall witness Thainara get her vengeance and cement herself as a title contender.

Play of the Fight:
Thainara by Submission or TKO

I’m backing Alexia Thainara in this rematch. I think she’s made significantly more improvements since their first fight, and this sets up as a real revenge spot for her against Bruna Brasil. Thainara looks like the fighter who has evolved more, and that progression should show when they meet again.

Brasil is tough and capable, but I see Thainara coming in sharper, more dangerous, and ready to capitalize on opportunities this time around. There’s even a chance she finds her first UFC knockout, but stylistically, I think her best path is still through grappling exchanges where she can take control and find a finish.

Play of the Fight:
Thainara by Submission or TKO