Brothers at Odds

Clicking each fight will take you further down the page to each Brother’s analysis!

Movsar Evloev vs Lerone Murphy
Luke Riley vs Michael Aswell Jr.
Michael Page vs Sam Patterson
Iwo Baraniewski vs Austen Lane
Roman Dolidze vs Christian Leroy Duncan
Kurtis Campbell vs Danny Silva
Mason Jones vs Axel Sola
Nathaniel Wood vs Losene Keita
Mario Pinto vs Felipe Franco
Mantas Kondratavicius vs Antonio Trocoli
Louie Sutherland vs Brando Peričić
Shem Rock vs Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady
Shanelle Dyer vs Ravena Oliveira

This is an absolutely elite main event is another classic striker versus grappler matchup between two undefeated fighters with a title shot on the line. Movsar Evloev is a top tier wrestler with a solid striking game to back it up. Lerone Murphy is a technical striker but has proven that he has the ability to get back to his feet when his opponents are able to take him down. Murphy displayed much improved grappling skills against Dan Ige by reversing Ige and gaining full mount in the second round. Murphy got taken down a few times by Josh Emmett but threatened Emmett with chokes from the bottom to cause scrambles and return to his feet, eventually out-striking Emmett to a decision. In his last fight Murphy was taken down twice by Aaron Pico. However, he showed zero panic, scrambled up almost immediately both times, and eventually timed a spinning elbow to KO Pico as he initiated another clinch. I think we could see a very similar result here. 

Evloev is a powerful wrestler. He will definitely get Lerone down at some point. I just really believe Evloev won’t be able to hold Murphy down for 25 minutes. He hasn’t been able to hold his recent opponents down either. All of Evloev’s most recent opponents (Diego Lopes, Arnold Allen and Aljamain Sterling) were able to get back to their feet after Evloev had them down. There’s no reason to think Murphy won’t be able to do the same. The difference with Murphy is that his striking ability is miles ahead of Evloev’s previous opponents. As I said before Evloev has good striking of his own that pairs nicely with his wrestling but he’s no match for Lerone Murphy on the feet. Murphy can finish the fight with a variety of weapons and has elite distance management that Evloev will struggle with. If this fight stays on the feet for any amount of time Evloev will lose. The pick here is Lerone Murphy by TKO long time.

A main event Brother’s Battle Breakdown! The fight between Murphy and Evloev is an elite and intriguing matchup on so many levels. Both fighters are undefeated and it is a prototypical striker vs grappler matchup. Or is it? I think the belief that Evloev is bankrupt on the feet is entirely misplaced because his Khabibesque wrestling dominance will have Murphy unsure what is coming his way. I believe Evloev’s striking will be way more effective that people are giving him credit for. Khabib was not an elite striker either but his wrestling made his striking game vastly more impactful and effective. What gives me greater confidence in this train of thought? How every single fighter pretty much gets Murphy down – with absolute ease – at some point in their fight. While Murphy has always found a way to win up until this point, he has never faced a dominant wrestler like Evloev. He is the best wrestler in their division by far, but I will admit that his ground control and offensive grappling needs polishing. Even with those slight holes in his game, Evloev consistently gets opponents to the mat over and over again. If he comes in with a smart gameplan and is able to hold Murphy in dominant positions without expending too much energy, I think this is a cake walk for him. We could see a repeat of Charles vs Max in terms of ground dominance because Murphy has shown he is easy to take down against far less profound wrestlers. 

I would also strongly assert that Evloev’s strength of schedule is better than Murphy’s. Evloev has fought: Sterling, Allen, Lopes, and Ige in his last 4 fights. Those are elite competitors in the Featherweight division and he defeated them all on the score cards. On Murphy’s side, his last 4 fights were with: Pico, Emmett, Ige, and Barboza. Two of those fighters (Emmett and Barboza) are ghosts at this point in their career, so I give Evloev more credit for his wins. My one concern here is that he does not have the 5 round experience of Murphy and the potential for a gas out with a wrestling heavy gameplan is real. But who knows how Murphy will also fare against constant pressure from Evloev. He could gas out himself. I think rounds 1 and 2 will be absolute domination for Evloev through the wrestling and I absolutely believe he can take at least one more round in the latter half of the fight. Evloev by unanimous decision, Khabib-style longtime!

Brando Pericic vs Louie Sutherland, No on Fight to Start Round 3 at -245

The heavyweight clash between Louie Sutherland and Brando Pericic is almost guaranteed to end early, as both fighters are known finishers. Sutherland enters the Octagon with an 80% knockout rate, though he is looking to erase the memory of his recent UFC debut where he was submitted in just 84 seconds. Pericic is even more explosive, maintaining a perfect 100% finishing rate and coming off a dominant debut knockout that took less than two minutes. The physical disparity is also a major factor here. Pericic has a 6’5″ frame and nearly 80-inch reach allowing him to land heavy counters from a distance that Sutherland’s brawling style struggles with. Pericic fights with a pace most heavyweights cannot survive for three rounds. Sutherland could also find himself in trouble on the ground. His defensive grappling is still a work in progress. The likelihood of this reaching the judges’ scorecards is slim. It’s kind of hard to find value on favorites for this card. Take what you can get here at -245. The judges won’t be needed here.

Mario Pinto vs Felipe Franco:
Fight Not to Start Round 3 @ -280

I think the quality of MMA skills between Pinto and Franco massively differs. I believe Pinto can finish this fight on the feet or the ground and I also think Franco has a puncher’s chance to put Pinto down with his power. I think fight not to start round 3 is an absolute lock! This card was tough to find confident plays with value but this is a high confience pick.

The featherweight co-main event at UFC London features an explosive clash between the undefeated Luke Riley and the high-volume Michael Aswell. Riley enters the octagon with a perfect 12-0 record and a reputation for technical kickboxing, often utilizing elite speed and precision to find finishing shots. His counterpart, Aswell, is an all-action pressure fighter who recently set a blistering pace by averaging over nine significant strikes landed per minute. While Riley relies on sharp counter-punching and a “stand-and-bang” philosophy, Aswell’s striking is defined by overwhelming volume and relentless forward movement designed to drown his opponents. This stylistic contrast creates a fascinating dynamic where Riley’s accuracy will be tested against the sheer output and durability of “The Texas Kid.” Both fighters have a history with common opponent Bogdan Grad, with Riley securing a knockout and Aswell losing a competitive split decision. Riley’s primary challenge will be keeping the fight at his preferred range, as his defensive grappling showed some gaps in his last outing. Aswell may look to mix in clinches to disrupt Riley’s rhythm. This fight could go either way but I’m actually going to pick Riley here as I think he just has a higher ceiling than Aswell. Whoever wins it’s guaranteed entertainment!

Play of the Fight: Riley ML

The featherweight co-main event at UFC London features an explosive clash between the undefeated Luke Riley and the high-volume Michael Aswell. Riley enters the octagon with a perfect 12-0 record and a reputation for technical kickboxing, often utilizing elite speed and precision to find finishing shots. His counterpart, Aswell, is an all-action pressure fighter who recently set a blistering pace by averaging over nine significant strikes landed per minute. While Riley relies on sharp counter-punching and a “stand-and-bang” philosophy, Aswell’s striking is defined by overwhelming volume and relentless forward movement designed to drown his opponents. This stylistic contrast creates a fascinating dynamic where Riley’s accuracy will be tested against the sheer output and durability of “The Texas Kid.” Both fighters have a history with common opponent Bogdan Grad, with Riley securing a knockout and Aswell losing a competitive split decision. Riley’s primary challenge will be keeping the fight at his preferred range, as his defensive grappling showed some gaps in his last outing. Aswell may look to mix in clinches to disrupt Riley’s rhythm. This fight could go either way but I’m actually going to pick Riley here as I think he just has a higher ceiling than Aswell. Whoever wins it’s guaranteed entertainment!

Play of the Fight: Riley ML

This is another fight with guaranteed fireworks. Michael Page is a long time Bellator star who finally made the transition to the UFC in 2024. Since then he’s rattled off a 3-1 record with his only loss coming against top contender Ian Garry. Page utilizes a highly unorthodox “hands-down” striking style rooted in his background as a champion in karate. He relies on distance management and explosive lunges to land precision counters while remaining almost impossible to hit. His approach is defined by its unpredictability, using fluid movement, constant feints, and flashy techniques like spinning kicks to frustrate opponents and bait them into overextending. Patterson is on an impressive 4 fight win streak finishing all 4 opponents. A nice turnaround after losing his UFC debut in 2023. Patterson has shown himself to be a very well-rounded fighter with finishing power in his hands and skills on the mat to submit any opponent. I really think it is his grappling game that will carry him to a win here. Patterson has found much success taking his opponents down from the clinch and I think he should try to employ the same strategy here. Patterson is not the type to waste time on the ground and looks to submit his opponents as soon as possible. This fight will be determined by where it takes place. If it’s a distance management striking battle Page wins. If Patterson can pressure Page with clinches up against the fence Patterson wins. I have to admit that I am biased here as I have never been a big fan of Michael Page. That being said, I’m picking Sam “The Future” Patterson to break through the guard of Michael “Venom” Page and come out on top with another submission victory.

Play of the Fight: Patterson by TKO or submission.

 Earlier in their careers, I likely would have favored the dynamic striking and speed of MVP. However, with MVP moving down to 170 while approaching the age of 39… I am taking Patterson all day long. Patterson is a fighter who has been finding consistent success at 170 compared to his failed UFC debut at 155. MVP has been fighting older and slower fighters in the UFC at 185, which I think has made him appear as if he has not lost a beat in terms of his speed. MVP’s skillset is very reliant upon his speed and athleticism, which naturally decline as a fighter ages. I do not believe MVP will look horrible, but I also do not think he is going to style on a gritty Sam Patterson who has been working on his striking, has a very solid ground game, and is entering his UFC prime. I will take Sam Patterson inside the distance. I am especially feeling a submission incoming!

Play of the Fight: Patterson ML

Not much needs to be said about this one. Baraniewski is 7-0 finishing all 7 opponents in the first round. Since entering the UFC in 2023 Lane has been knocked out 3 times by middling competition. Those three knockouts were brutal, especially his most recent knockout loss against Mario Pinto where he got flat lined by a right hand. He followed that up with a submission loss to Vitor Petrino. Baraniewski won his UFC debut in December against Ibo Aslan. That fight proved Baraniewski’s toughness getting dropped early but coming back for an epic knockout win. Before that he knocked out his opponent on Dana White’s Contender Series in 20 seconds. Too easy to pick another knockout win for Baraniewski here and another knockout loss for Lane. 

Play of the Fight:
Iwo Baraniewski by KO 

I am not even going to waste my time going deep here with this tetrafina fish food of a fight. Let’s do some simple math: Lane has shown to have a fragile chin and Baraniewski has been shown to have the punching power of a world beater, which equals absolute destruction in favor of Baraniewski. This will not be a Donte Johnson performance in the slightest, Baraniewski will make easy work of his fish food in the octagon.

Play of the Fight: Baraniewski Round 1

Duncan is a creative, high-volume striker that loves to throw flashy attacks. He has multiple knockouts via spinning backfists, spinning elbows, and flying knees. He’s going to try and keep the fight standing against the decorated grappler Dolidze. Dolidze is a jiu-jitsu champion who will try to close the distance on Duncan and force the fight to the ground. The problem for Dolidze is that despite his jiu-jitsu skills his wrestling is mediocre. He struggles to initiate takedowns against anyone with decent footwork. If he can’t clinch Duncan, he will likely spend 15 minutes being a stationary target. Dolidze has a habit of standing still if he can’t land takedowns. Against Vettori and Imavov he just stood in front of them and didn’t attack very much. The pick here is Duncan. I think he stop Dolidze’s takedown attempts and out strikes him for a decision.

Play of the Fight:
Duncan ML

Duncan continues to improve and learn valuable lessons at a fast pace. If this fight had been 3-4 years ago, I would strongly consider picking a more primed Dolidze. But that is not the reality we are living in. Dolidze just had his soul snatched from him by Fluffy Hernandez and is in the latter part of his career. I believe that Duncan’s crisp striking will be too much for Dolidze, who is more of a grappler than a striker. If Dolidze can get the grappling going, he certainly has a chance. But I think Duncan will be hard to track within the big 02 cage.

Play of the Fight:
Duncan by Decision

Campbell is an undefeated prospect making his UFC debut after an impressive first-round knockout on Dana White’s Contender Series last September. Silva is more seasoned in the Octagon, coming off a loss but previously riding a three-fight UFC win streak. Campbell is extremely dangerous with his legs. He has won fights via liver kick and calf kick. Campbell is also a jiu-jitsu brown belt and more than capable of winning fights by submission. Silva is a high volume boxer and a capable wrestler but he tends to absorb a lot of damage. Campbell is the pick here. I think he’s too dangerous for Silva on both the feet and the mat. While Silva is incredibly durable and gritty, Campbell is the more explosive athlete. He has a higher ceiling and more ways to win.

Play of the Fight:
Campbell by TKO or Submission

UFC debuts are always risky business but I strongly believe that the potential of “The Pink Panther” is through the roof. He is an incredibly young prospect but he is not short on experience. He has a well-rounded game and an intelligent approach to the fight game. I think he is a prospect that will live up to the hype, especially on his home turf! I absolutely believe that Silva could have potential as well but he seems way too passive to me in the octagon. There is no reason that he did not starch some of the competition he fought before facing Vallejos, who showed him levels. I do not know if Campbell will be able to get the finish but I am absolutely confident he will get the W with his skillset.

Play of the Fight:
Campbell ML

Mason Jones is currently on a six fight win streak, including two dominant performances since returning to the UFC against Jeremy Stephens and my brother’s favorite fighter Bolaji Oki. Axel Sola is another intriguing prospect with a perfect record, coming off a successful UFC debut where he finished Rhys McKee. Jones is a cardio machine known for a relentless pace. Sola is a more technical striker with a karate style. This should be a fun fight to watch. While Sola is the more refined technician, Mason Jones is difficult to finish and usually breaks his opponents with volume and wrestling pressure in the later rounds. Expect Jones to survive early flurries and grind out a win.

Play of the Fight:
Jones ML

I believe in Mason Jones to a very high degree. He is a gritty fighter with great recoverability who never quits on himself. He will keep moving forward and break his opponents. I absolutely believe he is going to break the Frenchman here. While Sola did finish Rhys McKee, it was an early stoppage and… it’s Rhys McKee. That is not the most impressive win ever. I think Jones is going to take Sola into deep waters and hand him his first loss in the UFC. A grappling heavy gameplan could be a phenomenal approach from Jones, although he often falls in love with his fists. I think that will do the job well too! Mason Jones for the W.

Play of the Fight:
Jones ML

The veteran Nathaniel Wood is fighting in his hometown of London against Losene Keita who is making his UFC debut. Keita is essentially undefeated but Wood is a massive step up in competition for him. Keita does have very powerful hands that have put 10 opponents out inside the distance but Wood will test him more than any opponent has yet. Wood is a true mixed martial artist with very balanced skills. He has been known to eat a shot or two in fights but is a very good counter striker and is very difficult to finish. He also has no problem taking a fight to the ground and grappling his way to victory. I think Keita is going to struggle with the veteran savvy of Nathaniel Wood. I’m going to bet on experience here. Wood is the pick. 

Play of the Fight:
Wood ML

Wood is a veteran with legitimate UFC experience and a well-rounded MMA skillset facing off against a UFC newcomber. Wood does tend to get hurt in his fights but his recoverability is high. I think he could get rocked here with a powerful, young Keita. However, I have a feeling that will wake Wood up and unleash the wrath of the Last Kingsman. Wood all the way!

Play of the Fight:
Wood ML

This fight came together on just one week’s notice forcing the undersized Franco into a massive uphill battle. Franco is moving up to heavyweight and is giving up 5 inches in height and a significant weight advantage to the 6’6″ Pinto. Despite the short notice, Franco is dangerous because he has a 100% first-round finish rate, with all ten of his wins ending in the opening five minutes. However, Pinto is a terrifying power puncher who has knocked out his last three opponents, including a 39-second sleeping of Austen Lane. Pinto’s 79-inch reach allows him to land fight-ending bombs while staying completely out of his opponent’s range. While Franco will likely blitz early to find a “miracle” finish, his lack of a full training camp for a heavyweight bout is a major liability. Pinto’s composure and elite punching power should allow him to find the chin as soon as Franco slows down.

Play of the Fight:
Pinto by KO

I think the quality of MMA skills between Pinto and Franco massively differs. I believe Pinto can finish this fight on the feet or the ground and I also think Franco has a puncher’s chance to put Pinto down with his power. But the most likey outcome is that Pinto finishes the fight however he wants, whenever he wants. I think fight not to start round 3 is an absolute lock!

Play of the Fight:
Fight Not to Start Round 3

Mantas Kondratavicius is walking into his UFC debut as a massive favorite and it’s easy to see why. He’s a legitimate finishing machine with a 100% finish rate, mostly because he swarms opponents with relentless pressure and heavy combinations. His opponent Antonio Trocoli is coming in on a three-fight skid with some glaring defensive holes. Trocoli’s biggest issue is his submission defense; he’s been caught in chokes in the first round of his last two fights. While Trocoli is 6’5″ with a huge reach, he tends to stand still which is a recipe for disaster against Kondratavicius. Trocoli also has a habit of leaving his head exposed in the clinch, which plays right into the hands of a savvy grappler. Kondratavicius also has better cardio. Trocoli often fades if he can’t get things going early. Kondratavicius is easy money here.

Play of the Fight:
Kondratavicius to Win Before Round 3

Play of the Fight:
Kondratavicius KO in Under 1.5 Rounds

The heavyweight fight between Louie “The Vanilla Gorilla” Sutherland and Brando “The Balkan Bear” Pericic should be a banger. Sutherland is fighting for his job after a tough debut last October, where he was submitted by Valter Walker in under 90 seconds. Pericic, on the other hand, is riding high after a brutal first-round knockout in his own debut. Pericic is a massive human being. Standing 6’5″ with a nearly 80-inch reach. He’s going to make Sutherland feel small. Sutherland relies almost entirely on stepping forward to land an overhand right. He should be an easy target for Pericic. Sutherland tends to get hit when he tries to close the distance, and Pericic is too long and too accurate to miss. Pick is Pericic by TKO.

Play of the Fight: Pericic by TKO

Sutherland is a live dog! War Sutherland!

Play of the Fight: Sutherland +7.5 Spread

Abdul-Kareem Al-Selwady enters this fight looking to return to the winning column while Shem Rock aims to prove his split-decision win over Attila Korkmaz last May wasn’t a fluke. Al-Selwady’s most recent outing was a tough third-round knockout loss to Loik Radzhabov, a fight he was actually winning until the final frame. Rock, meanwhile, is coming off a frustrating unanimous decision loss to Nurullo Aliev where his takedown defense was finally cracked. Al-Selwady’s greatest strength is his high pace and boxing that can overwhelm opponents. Rock relies on being able to finish fights mostly by submission but his striking defense can be a major liability when forced to trade. Al-Selwady is a disciplined grinder with a cardio edge that usually shines in the later rounds. Rock’s habit of fighting with his hands low makes him a prime target for Al-Selwady’s explosive overhand and precise combinations. If Al-Selwady can pressure Rock he should come out on top.

Play of the Fight:
Al-Selwady ML

Play of the Fight:
Does Not Go to Decision

Shanelle Dyer makes her UFC debut as a massive hometown favorite after earning a contract through a high volume performance on the Contender Series, while Ravena Oliveira looks to snap a two-fight skid following a submission loss to Stephanie Luciano. Dyer’s primary strength is her elite Muay Thai and high volume and distance management. Oliveira is a strong veteran with decent takedowns but her glaring weakness is a very low striking output. Dyer should be able to win this fight on volume alone.

Play of the Fight:
Dyer ML

Play of the Fight:
Dyer ML