Brothers at Odds

Clicking each fight will take you further down the page to each Brother’s analysis!

Max Holloway vs Charles Oliveira
Lightweight (155)
Caio Borralho vs Reinier de Ridder
Middleweight (185)
Rob Font vs Raul Rosas Jr.
Bantamweight (135)
Drew Dober vs Michael Johnson
Lightweight (155)
Gregory Rodrigues vs Brunno Ferreira
Middleweight (185)
Cody Garbrandt vs Long Xiao
Bantamweight (135)
Donte Johnson vs Cody Brundage
Middleweight (185)
Alberto Montes vs Ricky Turcios
Featherweight (145)
Cody Durden vs Nyamjargal Tumendemberel
Flyweight (125)
Sumudaerji vs Jesus Aguilar
Flyweight (125)
Rafael Tobias vs Diyar Nurgozhay
Light Heavyweight (205)
Luke Fernandez vs Rodolfo Bellato
Light Heavyweight (205)

Font is coming off a rough loss to David Martinez where he really faded late and almost got finished. Rosas is a legitimate up and comer with years of grappling experience and much improved cardio and pace. While Font does have good ability to scramble when the fight hits the mat his takedown defence isn’t the best. Font does have the edge in striking but I think Rosas has improved enough in that department to close the distance and turn this into a grappling match. Some other people might tell you that Font will be able to keep the fight standing and jab his way to a victory but those people are wrong. Very wrong. Even if Rosas can’t hold him down he will be pressuring Font with clinches and takedowns constantly. Font will land a few shots in between but they won’t be enough to make a difference. 

The argument can be made that Rosas hasn’t fought top competition and that is true. But Font hasn’t had much success against top contenders in his few opportunities. He’s a gatekeeper and Rosas is about to break that gate off its hinges. In the end, Font gassing out in his last fight really implores me to pick Rosas here. Unless Font is able to find a shocking KO early I think “El Nino Problemo” will have Font in trouble late and win a decision or snag a 3rd round submission. Chiwiwis long time!

Rob Font is a seasoned veteran who still brings a very real threat to anyone trying to climb the bantamweight ladder. His boxing skillset is excellent, highlighted by a sharp and dangerous 1 – 2 that can give a young and spoon-fed fighter like Raul Rosas Jr. serious problems if he cannot keep him grounded. While Font is susceptible to takedowns, what makes him dangerous is that he rarely accepts position once he hits the mat. He constantly fights to his feet and will even threaten counter submissions just to create space and stand back up. If Font is able to consistently work his way back to striking range, Mr. El Nino Problem Chiwiwis is going to need plastic surgery by the end of the fight because I believe the striking gap is as wide as the Grand Canyon. 

Rosas Jr. should be an improved fighter every time we see him in the octagon, but how good is the overhyped prospect? Mr. Chiwiwis has fought absolute cans throughout his career so far and proven nothing because the UFC has protected the young prospect. Font is undoubtedly the toughest test of his career. Font has the experience edge, gritty get-up game, and technical striking skillset to outclass Rosas throughout the duration of the fight. Font was competitive with David Martinez for much of their fight before getting rocked late by a far superior striker to Mr. Chiwiwis. Rosas Jr. will have to prove to me that he is ready for this level of competition and I would be impressed if he is able to finish Font. I will take Font by a damage based decision or a TKO from damage accumulation.

Montes over Turcios

I think Montes is the best pick of the night. He’s 11-1 with that only loss coming by knockout. Turcios has not been impressive in the UFC so far. His last two matchups were especially underwhelming. I really don’t think Turcios is the guy to hand Montes his 2nd loss. Plus he’s already been subbed once in the UFC. I think we are gonna see another Montes submission victory but Turcios could be scrappy enough to make it all 3 rounds. Right now Montes is -192 to win outright and +250 to win by submission. 

Johnson to KO Brundage 

This is as close to a guarantee as it gets. I don’t see any possibility of Brundage surviving 15 minutes in the cage with Donte Johnson. Donte has finished everyone he’s fought in his career and Brundage should not give him much of a challenge. Unfortunately the odds for Johnson to win by KO are high at -225 but this is as close to a lock as we see in MMA.

Tumendemberel over Durden

Tumendemberel is an incredibly solid up and coming prospect with a fierce finishing instinct. He lost a split decision in his UFC debut to Carlos Hernandez, but showed tons of potential. He hit Hernandez with a lethal left hook after defending a takedown attempt, immediately worked to take the back as Hernandez was stunned on the ground, Hernandez tried to adjust, and Tumendemberel snatched up a nasty armbar attempt with 18 seconds left on the clock. It did not work out for him but that is a serious show of skill in a UFC debut. That is an excellent skillset to bring into a fight against someone like Cody Durden. I think he will have to weather the initial storm of Durden but will be able to find the finish as the fight progresses. I can see a pathway where Tumendemberel has opportunities to either submit or knock out Durden. The odds for a finish (submission or knockout) by Tumendemberel sits around +140.

Oliveira is coming off an impressive win against Gamrot but hasn’t won back to back fights in almost 4 years. I don’t see Charles being able to dominate Max with grappling which is probably his only path to victory here. Max has only lost to elite fighters and looked elite himself against Poirier in his last fight. Plus Charles is known to eat at least a shot or two in fights so with all that being said I’m picking Max Holloway to win by KO/TKO.

Play of the Fight:
Max Holloway to win by KO/TKO @ +165

A violent end to this BMF title fight is a near guarantee. I believe one of these men will be unconscious or unable to continue before 25 minutes is up. Both fighters are absolute legends and should not be counted out in this spot. However, I do lean towards Max “Blessed” Holloway here because of his superior striking skillset. Since he has moved up to Lightweight, I have been very impressed by his increase in power. Oliveira has been known to be somewhat chinny and that could present itself here. Although you can never count Oliveira out, so I would tread with caution on a pure pick in this fight. The potential for Oliveira to catch a neck is always live, he has submitted the best of the Lightweight division (outside of Ilia and Islam, but they are next level fighters).

Play of the Fight:
Ends inside the Distance @ -225

Both guys are elite grapplers so I’m expecting a striking contest. Caio went 5 full rounds against Imavov last fight and although he lost he still held his own. De Ridder however gassed badly in his last fight versus Brendan Allen. I don’t think RDR will be able to wear out Borralho like he has done to other opponents in the past. I’m picking Borralho to win but I’m not totally confident. I also think a bet on RDR at +250 is worthwhile. 

Play of the Fight: Over 2.5 Rounds @ -195

I am firmly on the side of Caio in this fight, and that is coming from someone who has historically been a big fan of De Ridder. Although I cannot forget how he quit on the stool going into the final round of his last fight. While he has stated that he was dealing with health issues relating to low blood cell count, I think it is a very bad look that he has only been out for 4 months. He also talked about how he could not recover properly after training or even walk up stairs without being exhausted in the weeks after his last fight. While there seems to be value on RDR’s betting line, I would stay miles away from it considering all of the factors at play. I think Caio is as bad of a stylistic matchup as they come for RDR because Caio can absolutely hold his own in the grappling (he beat RDR’s last opponent, Brendan Allen, in a grappling match) and he should be levels above RDR in the striking. The psychology of this fight is also essential to consider. If RDR cannot grab hold of Caio and find much success in grappling, I firmly believe his confidence will crumble. RDR is absolutely a confidence based fighter and he gains confidence from grappling success. I will take Caio in this fight by KO or Decision.

Play of the Fight:
Fight to Start Round 3 @ -245 OR
Goes to Decision -160

Michael Johnson comes into this fight on a three fight win streak and looked impressive in his last outing. Dober on the other hand has lost three of his last four. Both guys have the power to finish this fight at any moment but I think Johnson is more capable of weathering such a storm. Johnson still has fast hands and has had recent success against other aggressive fighters. This is pretty much a pick’em fight but I’m going to take Johnson here. 

Play of the Fight:
Johnson Moneyline @ – 120

This is a striker’s delight! Both veteran athletes are going to throw down before one of them goes down. Earlier in their careers, the durability on both sides would have given me more confidence to believe that the fight could go long. However, both Dober and Johnson have displayed cracks in their chins in recent years. As a result, I have a strong feeling that this fight will end by KO inside the distance. A strong case can be made for either fighter to win but I will take Dober as a pure pick here. I think he has the power advantage and has fought the higher level of competition in recent years. Johnson’s speed could present some problems in boxing exchanges but I have a strong feeling that Dober’s punching power will result in a nice knockout-induced nap for MJ.

Play of the Fight:
Does Not Go To Decision @ – 200

Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in their first matchup. Both guys are excellent grapplers but this fight will be determined on the feet again. Either guy could knock out the other at any moment. That being said I think Ferreira takes it again with another finish although the best bet is the winning method of victory being a KO/TKO overall.

Play of the Fight:
Fight to End by KO/TKO @ -175

Many people are forgetting how easily Ferreira knocked out Robocop in their first matchup. The potential for the same outcome is definitely live because Robocop has a marching forward style that leaves him vulnerable to big punches. If Robocop decides to take a more technical approach, he could find success – but that has never been his style. I believe both fighter’s grappling skillset will cancel one another out. I will take the underdog, Ferreira, to win by KO/TKO.

Play of the Fight:
Ferreira ML @ +164 OR
Fight Does Not Start Round 3 @ -210

Both guys love to crack! We know how aggressive Cody can be but Xiao Long is up for the challenge! This should be a war but I think Long will be able to survive better than Cody. I’m picking Xiao Long to win this. Probably by KO. And again betting the winning method of victory as a KO/TKO overall is the best bet.

Play of the Fight:
End by KO @ +175

The ghost of Cody Garbrandt is back against the lowest level of competition he has fought in awhile. Although I will give Long lots of credit for his activity and brawling style. The man is not afraid to point down to the center of the octagon and come forward with violence, which could spell trouble for a Garbrandt who could not be more chinny at this point in his career. Long is the younger fighter with more momentum, so I will choose him as a pure pick based on potential. However, Garbrandt has fought extremely high levels of competition and can certainly be dangerous in this spot with the right gameplan.

Play of the Fight:
Fight to End Inside the Distance @ +105

Johnson is 7-0 with 7 finishes. Brundage got TKO’d in his last fight and the result will likely be similar here except more violent. I think Johnson gets career win and finish #8 and stays undefeated. Should be easy work for him. 

Play of the Fight:
Johnson by KO (longtime) @ -225

Two parts of my brain activate with this fight. One part wants to believe that the inexperience of Johnson is a major risk in this fight because his first round against Sedriques Dumas was not the most impressive. The second – more rational part – believes that Johnson is going to absolutely starch Brundage, who was just knocked out by Cam Rouston on January 31st. I am going to follow the athletic talent of a great prospect over a guy who is consistently losing as of late. Johnson inside the distance. 

Play of the Fight:
Fight Does Not Start Round 3 @ -340

Montes has an excellent submission game. He’s 11-1 with that only loss coming by knockout. However I don’t think Turcios is the guy to do it again and he’s already been subbed once in the UFC. I think we are gonna see another Montes submission victory. Although I could see Turcios being scrappy enough to make it all 3 rounds. 

Play of the Fight:
Montes by Submission @ +250

Turcios is an incredibly sporadic and unreliable fighter who does have a slight UFC experience edge over Montes. However, Montes has an overall better MMA skillset and – I believe – a much higher ceiling in the UFC than Turcios. Popular opinion is praising Montes for his submission skills, which are fairly high level. But I truly believe he has underrated hands with some decent power – better than Turcios has faced thus far at the UFC level. Montes can sometimes be hesitant with his hands but I do not think he will have that issue against Turcios. I can see Montes finishing this fight with a KO or submission, but Turcios could look better at this higher weight class and steal the first round with pressure. 

Play of the Fight:
Ends Inside the Distance @ -105 OR
Turcios +3.5 spread @ – 130

C: Durden is 0-3 in his last three fights and 1-5 in his last six. He also has 5 submission losses while Tumendemberel has 6 submission wins. Tumendemberel’s only loss on his record was a close split decision in his UFC debut. I think Tumendemberel takes this straight up. 

Play of the Fight:
Tumendemberel ML @ -162

Durden always looks impressive early in fights before they end poorly for him. That seems to be the tale of his UFC career as of late – have one win and 5 losses in his last 6 bouts. Tumbendemberel has a finish first style, which is both entertaining and effective at the UFC level. He is the younger prospect with the higher ceiling at this stage in his career, so I will take Tumbendemberel by finish. 

Play of the Fight:
Tumendemberel Finish (KO or Sub) @ +140

While I am tempted to pick the grappler (Aguilar) in this striker versus grappler matchup I’m actually going to pick Sumudaerji here. I love to pick grapplers in these stylistic matchups but Aguilar got dominated on the mat in his recent loss to Estevam. With Sumudaerji training at Team Alpha Male for this fight his grappling defense should be much improved. Sumudaerji takes this by decision. 

Play of the Fight: Sumudaerji ML @ -218

At face value, this looks like a classic striker vs. grappler matchup. Sumudaerji has fluid striking with a dangerous straight left from the southpaw stance and a massive 10-inch reach advantage, which could be significant against Aguilar’s little T-Rex arms. However, grappling has consistently been Sumudaerji’s kryptonite, as he has been submitted multiple times at the UFC level. Aguilar is willing to make fights messy in an attempt to utilize his submission skillset, which could favor him against Sumudaerji. If Sumudaerji keeps it standing he should have success at range, but if Aguilar can force grappling exchanges and turn it into a dirty fight, he has a clear path to exploit Sumudaerji’s biggest weakness. I am going to pick Aguilar to take this fight by a gritty decision or vice-like guillotine.

Play of the Fight: Aguilar ML @ +200

This is Tobias’ first fight in the UFC but he’s coming in on an impressive 6 fight win streak with finishes in his last 3. Nurgozhay has two UFC fights under his belt but lost by submission in both appearances. I think Tobias is well rounded enough to take this in his UFC debut. 

Play of the Fight: Tobias ML @ – 175

Nurgozhay vs. Tobias could go down as the Battle of Cans on this fight card. My level of confidence in both fighters is pretty low, but what we have seen from Nurgozhay at the UFC level is legitimately atrocious. He is constantly touching his eye with a sort of tic (which I believe is a tell for his opponents). Tobias is a fairly decent prospect with finishing capability, but he has not faced any legitimate competition up until this point. He also fights out of a Chute Box gym, which generally produces fighters with a quality skillset. As a result, I will take Tobias with a low level of confidence. 

Play of the Fight:
Does Not Start Round 3 @ -210

UFC debut for Fernandez coming in with a 6-0 record with 5 finishes. Bellato hasn’t won a fight since 2023 and got pieced up in his last fight. I also have a hard time trusting him after his bizarre reaction to an illegal strike against Paul Craig where he faked being knocked out. I think Bellato will struggle with Fernandez on the feet but Fernandez has a great wrestling background that will make it tough for Bellato to take him down. I’m picking Fernandez to win and betting on another KO isn’t a bad idea. 

Play of the Fight: Fernandez KO @ -115

Bellato is the definition of an actor who thinks they should win an Oscar… but little does Bellato know that he was not even in the running. Biggest Clown is the award he deserves based on what the tape shows thus far in his UFC Career, especially in his Paul Craig fight where he performed the ultimate flop. Bellato is a plodding striker with decent BJJ skills, but he has taken some rough losses to low level competition. He is facing Fernandez, who has better striking skills than Bellato and a solid ground game if the fight hits the mat. I will take Fernandez on the moneyline because I can see this fight going long with this being Fernandez’s UFC Debut and his 7th professional fight. 

Play of the Fight:
Fight to Start Round 2 @ -200